ATL: Ex NINE

[SouthDadeFish]

Even if TD 9 does lose tropical characteristics over the next couple of days, regeneration of a tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean is a distinct possibility. Nonetheless, I think the NHC made the safe call by siding with the ECMWF solution.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like this is going to be Hannah indeed.

Long time Ivan where have you been, miss your post on here.

Hey! I still follow and lurk every day! I'm currently stationed in Vegas, but still follow to check on my family and friends back on the Gulf coast. Hope everyone back home in Florida keeps an eye on this one...it only takes one

[blp]

Not surprising they are sticking with Euro. They will ride it until it proves wrong.

Same guy Brown did not think much of this a few hours ago and now a depression so I am not going to read to much into it since they are taking a conservative outlook considering the uncertainty.

[gatorcane]

Even if TD 9 does lose tropical characteristics over the next couple of days, regeneration of a tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean is a distinct possibility. Nonetheless, I think the NHC made the safe call by siding with the ECMWF solution.

Yeah no doubt I agree with them for the initial forecast package as it makes sense to lean with the model that has generally done better this year at forecasting cyclones across the basin. But I do think there is more of a possibility this could regenerate in the NW Caribbean than that discussion makes it seem.

Brown usually gives succinct discussions, had Stewart written it, we would have got the full explanation I am sure! Brown does leave it open though in a succinct way:

"The ECMWF shows the tropical
cyclone merging with the frontal system, while the GFS keeps the
depression a separate system. For now, the NHC forecast shows a
weak low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5
days."

[ozonepete]

Looks like this is going to be Hannah indeed.

Long time Ivan where have you been, miss your post on here.

Hey! I still follow and lurk every day! I'm currently stationed in Vegas, but still follow to check on my family and friends back on the Gulf coast. Hope everyone back home in Florida keeps an eye on this one...it only takes one

Great to see you Michael!

[CrazyC83]

So the Florida low is supposed to be a distinct system that absorbs TD9/Hanna?

[ozonepete]

Even if TD 9 does lose tropical characteristics over the next couple of days, regeneration of a tropical cyclone in the NW Caribbean is a distinct possibility. Nonetheless, I think the NHC made the safe call by siding with the ECMWF solution.

Yeah no doubt I agree with them for the initial forecast package as it makes sense to lean with the model that has generally done better this year at forecasting cyclones across the basin. But I do think there is more of a possibility this could regenerate in the NW Caribbean than that discussion makes it seem.

Brown usually gives succinct discussions, had Stewart written it, we would have got the full explanation I am sure! Brown does leave it open though in a succinct way:

"The ECMWF shows the tropical
cyclone merging with the frontal system, while the GFS keeps the
depression a separate system. For now, the NHC forecast shows a
weak low pressure area over the northwestern Caribbean Sea in 4 to 5
days."

Lol this is impossible to forecast very far out. I can see this dissipating or getting to a major hurricane. There's just too many variables that the models keep shifting on right now. And yeah, if Stacy had done the Discussion we'd know all of them, lol.

[ozonepete]

drier air and interaction with a frontal system is likely
to prevent strengthening. The NHC forecasts calls for degeneration
to a remnant low in 4 or 5 days, but this could occur much sooner.
so done in nw carribbean

And earlier today they dropped it from 60% to 50% before upping it to 70% and then a TD a few hours later. Some systems are harder than others to forecast. This one is particularly challenging.

[Ivanhater]

Great to see the old crew still here, Ozone. After the false alarms with the GFS, it is understandable to be cautious. With this being likely below 1000mb already, we should see more clarity in the models tomorrow. Interesting week shaping up....

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Looks like this is going to be Hannah indeed.

Long time Ivan where have you been, miss your post on here.

Hey! I still follow and lurk every day! I'm currently stationed in Vegas, but still follow to check on my family and friends back on the Gulf coast. Hope everyone back home in Florida keeps an eye on this one...it only takes one

Off all places to be stationed party out my friend.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z GFS is very bullish again in the NW Caribbean with it spinning up in about 100 hours.

SFT

[jaguarjace]

Off topic, just a reminder of a partial solar eclipse tomorrow, Oct. 23, over most of North America.

[galaxy401]

Well this is a surprise. Wasn't looking like it was going to develop earlier. Strange how October is acting more like what September should of been.

Off topic, just a reminder of a partial solar eclipse tomorrow, Oct. 23, over most of North America.

Technically it is still two days away for North America.

[chaser1]

Hey, anybody awake?? I was looking for a "sticky", and didn't want to immediately start scanning 24 hours worth of discussion..... but, can anyone tell me whats up with the satellite images?? When I go to a couple of the normal sites I use, I'm not just seeing a couple hours eclipse - I'm seeing images from 2 days ago, LOL. What gives?

[USTropics]

Hey, anybody awake?? I was looking for a "sticky", and didn't want to immediately start scanning 24 hours worth of discussion..... but, can anyone tell me whats up with the satellite images?? When I go to a couple of the normal sites I use, I'm not just seeing a couple hours eclipse - I'm seeing images from 2 days ago, LOL. What gives?

Luckily, nothing is wrong with GOES-13. NOAA's Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is having network issues (this is affecting other products as well it seems, such as ASCAT).

This is the official message:

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 20, 2014 2148 UTC
Date/Time of Expected End: TBD
Length of Outage: TBD
Details/Specifics of Change: OSPO is experiencing some network problems at the present time. Details are unavailable at this time. This may affect email and internet connectivity. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause and are taking the necessary steps to quickly resolve the issue. A message will be sent to the user community once more information becomes available.

In the meantime here are some alternatives for those who may not know

LSU's Earth Scan Laboratory - http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/
Navy NRL TC - http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
NASA GOES - http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
ATMOS Enhanced WV - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
700 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 92.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[TheStormExpert]

Pressure rose two millibars from 1000mb to now 1002mb, not looking likely that this will become a TS anytime soon if at all.

[jlauderdal]

if its poorly disorganized does that mean its organized?



NBC 6 South Florida @nbc6 · 25m 25 minutes ago
UPDATE: Tropical Depression 9 remains poorly disorganized: http://on.nbc6.com/w4sAbMu

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Pressure rose two millibars from 1000mb to now 1002mb, not looking likely that this will become a TS anytime soon if at all.

There is still a possibility and as you can see convection on the increase again, saved image:

[wxman57]

I still believe the Euro rather than the GFS on this one. Once in the NW Caribbean I think that the Euro has a better handle on all the dry air flowing into the region. I don't think it will survive crossing the Yucatan. The GFS has proven to be quite bad in predicting the flow across the southern U.S. & Gulf over the past month, missing cold fronts completely from 5-7 days out.