ATL: Ex NINE

[gatorcane]

Wxman the ECMWF could have this right for sure. But there is some doubt as you have the GFS, NAVGEM and HWRF models showing a much different solution. Even the GFDL is showing some development in the NW Caribbean now as of the 06Z run. If you look at the ECMWF runs from last week, they already showed continental air diving into the BOC and Yucatan by now, preventing development. We know that didn't happen. It may be too strong on this next shortwave too. Of course there is the possibility it dissipates over the Yucatan as some of the models like the GEM show.

[gatorcane]

10AM CDT NHC discussion snippet:

Most of the
global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable
upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the
the cyclone survives its path over land. On this basis, the NHC
forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days

[blp]

Levi has a new video up. Makes good points. Lots of uncertainty.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2014/10/22/tropical-depression-9-forms-expected-to-stay-weak-but-a-big-rain-maker/

[blp]

10AM CDT NHC discussion snippet:

Most of the
global models, primarily the GFS and the HWRF, forecast a favorable
upper-level environment for the system to redevelop, if the
the cyclone survives its path over land. On this basis, the NHC
forecast now maintains tropical depression status through five days

[]http://i62.tinypic.com/2u6nqyd.jpg[/img]

Wow did not expect that. Very interesting...

EDIT: IMO it was very resonable for them to do this. You don't want to lean to much to one model even though it is the best. Going with a Depression is a good balance as they wait to see what emerges in a few days from the Yucatan.

[wxman57]

I believe the HWRF and GFDL models about as much as I believe the Canadian for intensity. They just haven't proven to be very reliable. Both are based upon the GFS to some degree, which is why they would indicate a favorable environment in the western Caribbean. Like I said, the GFS has done a poor job of handling the weather pattern across the southern U.S. and the Gulf over the past month so I tend not to believe it.

[Blown Away]

Remnant low or TD, not a big risk either way. Given the GFS and it's buddies showing redevelopment, I think it's reasonable to now show TD day 4/5...

[HurriGuy]

Lets see what GFS has in store this run

[HurriGuy]

Convection is waning near the center. Not looking to good. Getting close to being exposed center.

Sheer taking a major toll

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters sides with GFS. I sense two camps that are digging in to battle each other.

The trough of low pressure will pull out of the Western Caribbean on Saturday, and may leave behind an area of spin in the Western Caribbean that would potentially have the capability to develop into a strong tropical storm or hurricane, as predicted by many of the ensemble members of the 00Z Wednesday morning run of the GFS model. The European and UKMET models are not showing this solution, but I think we have to be concerned about the possibility of a potentially dangerous tropical cyclone in the Western Caribbean early next week. It's a complicated meteorological situation, and the long-term forecast is murky.

[crownweather]

Interesting blog post by Dr. Masters. As for myself, I ended up averaging the 2 opposing model teams together (Euro & GFS) and think if something does spin up this weekend in the NW Caribbean that it will be slow moving from near the Cayman Islands to the west coast of Cuba and a gradual developer that slowly strengthens into a tropical storm. Not quite convinced that it will become a hurricane as quickly as the GFS/NAVGEM models suggest, but we could be wrong and the GFS model may end up having the "last laugh".

[SouthFLTropics]

12Z GFS just folded its cards and has nothing through 132 hours. Big change from 06Z.

[HurriGuy]

Looking at visible, looks like TD9 is done.

[SouthFLTropics]

It figures that the GFS would wait for the NHC to not show dissipation on their 11:00AM forecast for it to finally decide to cave and show no development. You have to think that the folks at the NHC are cursing the GFS and you really have to start to wonder how much credibility that model has left with the NHC. It's ironic that it seems like it enjoys making fools out of everyone. Maybe GFS should be an acronym for Good For Suckers!

[wxman57]

Yes, 12Z GFS through 162 hrs has Nine moving back west over the Yucatan Tuesday and dissipating over land. Note that the 12Z GFS has a similar surface and mid/upper-level pattern as the 00Z Euro now. That wasn't the case with previous runs.

[CourierPR]

Before everyone folds up their tents for the season, take a look at the big blob of convection south of western Cuba on satellite. Is there any chance that something comes out of this? Could the center of TD9 migrate under that convection?

[AdamFirst]

Before everyone folds up their tents for the season, take a look at the big blob of convection south of western Cuba on satellite. Is there any chance that something comes out of this? Could the center of TD9 migrate under that convection?

That is the non-tropical entity that is supposed to get sucked up into the front, contributing to heavy rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

[boca]

My sat pics aren't updating does anyone have a link I could use?

[SFLcane]

000
NOUS42 KWNO 221702
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1700Z WED OCT 22 2014

DUE TO NESDIS CONTINUING NETWORK ISSUES...NCEP HAS NOT RECEIVED A
FULL FEED OF SATELLITE DATA FOR INPUT INTO THE NUMERICAL MODELS
SINCE 22/0000Z...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MODEL FORECASTS.
NESDIS AND NCEP ARE INVESTIGATING THE ROOT CAUSE OF THE ISSUE.
ONCE THE SITUATION IS RESOLVED ANOTHER MESSAGE WILL FOLLOW.

[jlauderdal]

Before everyone folds up their tents for the season, take a look at the big blob of convection south of western Cuba on satellite. Is there any chance that something comes out of this? Could the center of TD9 migrate under that convection?

more rain for us, especially late thurs and friday...conveyor belt of moisture, no development from that blob..this whole setup is behaving as expected

[boca]

I need to see an updated sat pic