ATL: Ex NINE

[jlauderdal]

I need to see an updated sat pic

i just stepped outside and its cloudy, i suspect its the same 10 miles up the road in boca, no need for a satellite..low tech better than high tech sometimes..

[gatorcane]

I need to see an updated sat pic

Boca try this link:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

[Evil Jeremy]

which models are being affected by the lack of new data?

[TheStormExpert]

Once it makes landfall tonight it will be game over it looks like, wouldn't be suprised if this never strengthens to TS status at this point.

The 5pm advisory should be somewhat interesting now that the GFS has completely backed off.

[jhpigott]

Once it makes landfall tonight it will be game over it looks like, wouldn't be suprised if this never strengthens to TS status at this point.

The 5pm advisory should be somewhat interesting now that the GFS has completely backed off.

I'd guess they may wait another cycle before writing this off completly given GFS' tendency to drop/pick up development of this system and given new EURO 12z is showing a surface reflection (albeit weak) making it into the GOM.

[WPBWeather]

Once it makes landfall tonight it will be game over it looks like, wouldn't be suprised if this never strengthens to TS status at this point.

The 5pm advisory should be somewhat interesting now that the GFS has completely backed off.

I'd guess they may wait another cycle before writing this off completly given GFS' tendency to drop/pick up development of this system and given new EURO 12z is showing a surface reflection (albeit weak) making it into the GOM.

Yes, your guess makes more sense that others posting here. It is amazing at the cherry picking of models by many on the blog this season. Worse than in past years, IMHO.

[TheStormExpert]

Once it makes landfall tonight it will be game over it looks like, wouldn't be suprised if this never strengthens to TS status at this point.

The 5pm advisory should be somewhat interesting now that the GFS has completely backed off.

I'd guess they may wait another cycle before writing this off completly given GFS' tendency to drop/pick up development of this system and given new EURO 12z is showing a surface reflection (albeit weak) making it into the GOM.

It would be hilarious if they showed it degenerating again 4-5 days out at the 5pm advisory to only have the 18z GFS go back to a full blown hurricane hitting Florida. The NHC would really go nuts!

[wxman57]

Euro and GFS are in agreement in taking the very weak remnant low of Nine westward and inland into the Yucatan by Tuesday afternoon. No regeneration after it moves inland tonight. 1830Z visible satellite indicates the center at 19.16N / 92.01W. No convection nearby. Looks like it's already a remnant low. I'm not forecasting it to become Hanna before it moves ashore.

[SouthFLTropics]

I think there are 3 things that are going to be key to something spinning up next week in the Caribbean.

First, how much and what kind of energy is left after it crosses the Yucatan.

Second, where does it set up shop in the Caribbean. To survive it will need to be further south near Honduras and Nicaragua.

Lastly, don't get too close to land down there...stay out over the warm Caribbean waters. If it finds a sweet spot down there it may spin up.

I don't expect the circulation itself to survive the crossing of the Yucatan. But if the energy is still there it may spin up a new circulation. Just my two cents.

SFT

[gatorcane]

Pressure remains 1003MB:

At 1800 UTC, 22 October 2014, TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE (AL09) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.3°N and 91.9°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 4 kt at a bearing of 95 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb.

[wxman57]

I'm measuring 19.16N/91.95W on an 1845Z visible satellite image. Squalls all gone. Winds likely in the 20-25 mph range at most but generally 15 mph or less.

[chaser1]

Once it makes landfall tonight it will be game over it looks like, wouldn't be suprised if this never strengthens to TS status at this point.

The 5pm advisory should be somewhat interesting now that the GFS has completely backed off.

I'd guess they may wait another cycle before writing this off completly given GFS' tendency to drop/pick up development of this system and given new EURO 12z is showing a surface reflection (albeit weak) making it into the GOM.

Yes, your guess makes more sense that others posting here. It is amazing at the cherry picking of models by many on the blog this season. Worse than in past years, IMHO.

Disclaimer - LOL, this post is taking some time to write, so I might be redundantly restating what someone else might have already posted during the last 30 or so minutes.

Boy, do I agree with your above statement - so much of the model cherry picking, that many simply post when when a particular model or present tropical cyclone evolution simply hiccups for a few hours, thus affirming THEIR particular prediction or attitude. Here's a few observations as I see things at the moment:

1) Evil Jeremy brings up an excellent question - did anyone even understand it? There presently are issues with regard to some satellite resources OR the processing of such data, thus affecting NCEP output. While I've tried to Google the topic for further explanation or news...., I'm struck how "hush hush" things are regarding any details other than the one vague blurb that was posted an hour ago from a Sr. Meteorologist with NWS - NCEP Operations College Park, MD. Folks....., I copy/pasted this directly from the NCEP site where the GFS (and other) model output originates:

NCEP Central Operations (NCO) is responsible for producing the official NCEP Model Verification output. The NCEP Verification processing is broken down into daily and monthly statistics.

The daily and monthly verification processing is broken down into three main programs: QCMON, SUMAC4 and ANLVER. The QCMON monthly processing produces reports of aircraft; AMDAT/ASDAR; ACARS; satellite wind; ship-based radiosonde observations; and, radiosonde observations of geopotential height and wind using daily statistics from the gdas1 prepbufr files at 00Z; 06Z; 12Z; and, 18Z.

The SUMAC4 programs are set up to verify gridded forecast fields against quality- controlled radiosondes. Program sumac4 verifies the GFS; NAM; and, UKMET model forecasts of height; temperature; relative humidity; and wind at 850MB; 500MB; 250MB; and 100MB against radiosonde observation.

The ANLVER verifies a 1-degree grid forecasts against a 1-degree grid analysis using the GFS model for the Northern Hemisphere; the Southern Hemisphere; and the Tropics. Daily S1 scores from the GFS and NAM models are generated for the Mean Sea Level and the 500MB heights.

About Verification
Verification Overview
Verification Contact Info:
Steven Lilly, System Integration Branch

So, just to finalize my point...., I'm not so sure that we are receiving accurate info with regard to present GFS (and other models - EURO excluded of course)

2) Present satellite images do appear to indicate that the depression is at least temporarily losing the fight for a couple of reasons. Dry air is being pulled into the system and what previously appeared to be a fairly large envelope system days ago, is dow limited to small blow-ups of convection primarily limited to its east. It appears fairly benign and drifting to the S.E. ever closer to land which is not helping its surface inflow. Also, take note of the separate "non tropical low" over the Yucatan channel. This primarily mid level feature is trying to work its way to the surface but shear is impeding this from happening and this is now becoming fully absorbed into the front lying across the Florida Straits and will now eject ENE along the Southward drifting front. It appears to me that this feature might be also slightly impacting the inflow from being drawn into the depression itself. By this evening, "that struggle" should have ended leaving the weakening depression to its own.

3) A few days ago, I had thought that Hannah would form under such a healthy upper high that existed over the bursting convection in the SW Caribbean. At the same time I also figured that there might only be a window for 93L to develop into a storm and this window closes by late tonight or tomm. (Thursday) a.m. Well, I think that window is shutting and I don't see this depression being upgraded to T.S. status any longer, while in the Gulf. From here out, its gonna have to get beaten up, dried out, and then spit out into the W. Caribbean, to eventually again have that opportunity.

4) Up to when the NCEP issues started, the GFS Global model was indicating a significant upper anticyclone over the W. Caribbean. We have the Euro for analysis, but temporarily i'm not sure that we have the GFS as a reliable tool to forecast both downstream upper air conditions or the mid level steering flow - at least we know that those issues with Satellite and/or other model data is properly being digested by that (and other) models. Therefore, my best guess regarding what might happen in 4-6 days would be that the depression's remnant area of low pressure might still exist broadly over parts of Central America and possibly the extreme W. Caribbean. If a significant upper high sets up over this area as previously advertised by the GFS than I suppose a real possibility exists that redevelopment could occur. "IF" this were to occur though, it would take at least a few days and quite frankly, given the already dry air mass that has infiltrated nearly the entire Gulf (as Wxman had been indicating), we wont be starting to re-build this "model airplane" just needing a couple of spare parts; There will likely need be a significant re-saturation of the environment over the W. Caribbean and will just take a few days for the cooler/dryer air to be modified.

5) Bottom line.... my guess is that a large tropical cyclone that is producing a lot of convection and feeding an expansive outflow might have survived some dryer air intrusion or even push up and against an opposing air mass. At this time though, I don't think the present conditions reflect that scenario. Therefore, I would tend to guess that this depression will simply move SE or East over land, and am not overly inclined to think that there is enough steering influence to quickly have it move over the warm waters of the W. Caribbean. I think the present system will unwind and dissipate, and depending on the potential downstream upper air set up over Central America and area waters, we might have remnant low pressure remaining in the area for future cyclogenesis to re-occur. At this point, i'd have to think those chances are real - but minimal.

[wxman57]

Good analysis, chaser1. My post will be much shorter.

Satellite indicates the LLC continues to open up. Doesn't qualify for TD status any longer, as there is no longer any squalls associated. Slim chances of it becoming Hanna before it moves ashore, though I'm not sure NHC will drop the TS chances for a system near the coast (just in case). Not much will remain when it emerges into the western Caribbean on Friday. No regeneration there.

[AdamFirst]

wxman57 where are you getting your satellite feeds?

[wxman57]

wxman57 where are you getting your satellite feeds?

Straight from the satellite. We have a big dish. Here's one from about 15 min ago.

[cycloneye]

From 4 PM CDT discussion.

The depression still has a well defined circulation, but the
associated convection has been gradually decreasing during the day.
Based on earlier reconnaissance data, the initial intensity is
kept at 30 kt. Given the deterioration of the cloud pattern and the
shear over the cyclone, it is less likely that the depression will
attain tropical storm status before it moves inland over the Yucatan
peninsula in about 12 hours or less.

[wxman57]

Ah, no more TS forecast from the NHC on the new advisory. That's good. I agree it could dissipate in 24 hrs. Vorticity will remain, though. Still don't think it will regenerate.

[USTropics]

Just to reiterate a post I made really early this morning that some may not have seen. After some extensive digging there is nothing wrong with GOES-13. The reason certain products are not being updated (like the satellite images on the NHC website, ASCAT images, etc) are because NOAA's Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is having network issues.

This is the official message sent by an administrator:

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 20, 2014 2148 UTC
Date/Time of Expected End: TBD
Length of Outage: TBD
Details/Specifics of Change: OSPO is experiencing some network problems at the present time. Details are unavailable at this time. This may affect email and internet connectivity. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause and are taking the necessary steps to quickly resolve the issue. A message will be sent to the user community once more information becomes available.

This was also just recently posted:

Due to a network outage at the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), satellite imagery is currently unavailable through the NHC webpage

In the meantime here are some alternatives for those who may not know

LSU's Earth Scan Laboratory - http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/
Navy NRL TC - http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
NASA GOES - http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
ATMOS Enhanced WV - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

[Hammy]

Just to reiterate a post I made really early this morning that some may not have seen. After some extensive digging there is nothing wrong with GOES-13. The reason certain products are not being updated (like the satellite images on the NHC website, ASCAT images, etc) are because NOAA's Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) is having network issues.

This is the official message sent by an administrator:

Date/Time of Initial Impact: October 20, 2014 2148 UTC
Date/Time of Expected End: TBD
Length of Outage: TBD
Details/Specifics of Change: OSPO is experiencing some network problems at the present time. Details are unavailable at this time. This may affect email and internet connectivity. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause and are taking the necessary steps to quickly resolve the issue. A message will be sent to the user community once more information becomes available.

This was also just recently posted:

Due to a network outage at the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), satellite imagery is currently unavailable through the NHC webpage

In the meantime here are some alternatives for those who may not know

LSU's Earth Scan Laboratory - http://www.esl.lsu.edu/imagery/atmosphere/
Navy NRL TC - http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html
NASA GOES - http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
ATMOS Enhanced WV - http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

ASCAT isn't showing up anywhere either, is it related to this?

[floridasun78]

i see alot dry area moving east from gulf will that affect td9 as move into nw Caribbean??