ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 21, 2014 6:41 pm

8 PM TWO:

A large non-tropical low located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean, a few hundred miles south of the Azores, is producing
disorganized thunderstorms and winds to gale force. This system
could still acquire some subtropical characteristics during the next
day or so while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for
subtropical or tropical cyclone formation by Wednesday night
and development after that time is not likely. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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#22 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 21, 2014 8:18 pm

Looking more tropical than it has, I'm surprised the chances weren't raised. Small area of convection over the center and defined banding on the eastern side taking shape.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#23 Postby Hammy » Wed Oct 22, 2014 3:02 am

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc14/ATL/92L.INVEST/ir/geo/1km/20141022.0330.msg3.x.ir1km.92LINVEST.40kts-1000mb-334N-290W.100pc.jpg

I fail to see how this qualifies as only 10% probability... :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#24 Postby wyq614 » Wed Oct 22, 2014 4:44 pm



I guess it's not because it will not be strong enough, maybe it's just because NHC doesn't think it will acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics any time soon, but they are not so sure about that so they did not deactivate the invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#25 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 22, 2014 6:44 pm

Down to 0%.

Shower activity associated with a large non-tropical low located
over the northeastern Atlantic Ocean a few hundred miles south of
the western Azores has diminished. Environmental conditions are
becoming less conducive, and the low is expected to weaken over the
next few days while it meanders. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.
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