ATL: Ex NINE

[AdamFirst]

wxman57 where are you getting your satellite feeds?

Straight from the satellite. We have a big dish. Here's one from about 15 min ago.

Ah

[USTropics]

ASCAT isn't showing up anywhere either, is it related to this?

The link here on NESDIS server (http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php) is not currently working because of the network outage. However, this link is still working for ASCAT images (http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/)

[ozonepete]

i see alot dry area moving east from gulf will that affect td9 as move into nw Caribbean??

No, because the base of that trough will be lifting more northward and carrying the dry air northeastward, not eastward.

[chaser1]

ASCAT isn't showing up anywhere either, is it related to this?

The link here on NESDIS server (http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php) is not currently working because of the network outage. However, this link is still working for ASCAT images (http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/)

Regardless of the cause, one would have thought that if they were aware that this outage would likely impact the accuracy of the GFS and other model output, that a more clearly expressed statement to that effect should have been made.

[blp]

Still has a good low level structure. The Yucatan is flat and there appears to be less shear than in BOC. All you need is some of that MLC convection over the channel to feed into the low. Who knows...

[ozonepete]

ASCAT isn't showing up anywhere either, is it related to this?

The link here on NESDIS server (http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php) is not currently working because of the network outage. However, this link is still working for ASCAT images (http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/)

Regardless of the cause, one would have thought that if they were aware that this outage would likely impact the accuracy of the GFS and other model output, that a more clearly expressed statement to that effect should have been made.

From your previous posts and Evil Jeremy's as well, there is no clear indication at all that OPSP problems will cause no data or bad data to go into the GFS or other model input. I just don't see any proof of that. Can you clearly state the direct link? I see that there is use of satellite data to validate some of the input data but input data for what systems? It doesn't say input data to the forecast model systems. Being a career IT person, I know that if the validation routine fails, then the actual GFS forecasting program would not be allowed to run. So nothing from what I've seen so far indicates that the GFS modeling program is running with bad or missing data. I just don't see where that's happening.

[SFLcane]

ozonepete was just asking question in models thread.. here is direct link.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... suedby=nfd

[chaser1]

Also, thanks SFLcane for having posted this earlier this afternoon -

".....DUE TO NESDIS CONTINUING NETWORK ISSUES...NCEP HAS NOT RECEIVED A
FULL FEED OF SATELLITE DATA FOR INPUT INTO THE NUMERICAL MODELS
SINCE 22/0000Z...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MODEL FORECASTS."

Unless I am misunderstanding, and this loss of data exclusively impacts the dynamic model output only (BAM's, SHIP, etc), than I am to assume that "the whole" of NCEP and entire suite of Global models have been and are presently being affected. If less data is being processed by the GFS right now, how can we assume that any change in trends which new runs might be advertising, are truly comprehensive in their analysis?". Again, assuming I am understanding the ramifications correctly, than this is a bigger deal than most are aware and all the more surprising that such little clarity and admission has been forthcoming (at least come out with some public statement "the GFS and related NCEP models are broke, come back in 2-3 days"??)

[USTropics]

ASCAT isn't showing up anywhere either, is it related to this?

The link here on NESDIS server (http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/datasets/ASCATData.php) is not currently working because of the network outage. However, this link is still working for ASCAT images (http://www.knmi.nl/scatterometer/)

Regardless of the cause, one would have thought that if they were aware that this outage would likely impact the accuracy of the GFS and other model output, that a more clearly expressed statement to that effect should have been made.

I agree, clarity has been lacking as to what products have been effected by this. In fact, the administrative message I posted earlier seems to have been removed but thankfully I had it saved. The NHC did not release a statement until earlier today. My assumptions are they did not expect for the outage to have lasted this long.

[WPBWeather]

ozonepete was just asking question in models thread.. here is direct link.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... suedby=nfd

So we are cherry picking models with bad data too???

[ozonepete]

ozonepete was just asking question in models thread.. here is direct link.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... suedby=nfd

Ok, I'll give you that although they said "potentially" impacting the numerical models, that's very vague and that is bad enough as it is.

[blp]

It is moving towards a moist atmosphere over the Yucan and this may be its only saving grace because the BOC is bone dry.

[HurriGuy]

Sorry if this was already asked, but this naked swirl is moving to a lot of deep convection over the Yucatan/Western Carib. Would this end up helping our TD?

[chaser1]

Its interesting to watch the lobe of energy begin to separate and pull ENE towards S. Florida, while meanwhile new strong convection is now bursting over Eastern Yucatan "which theoretically" would help cause to lower pressure with ongoing persistent convection. If the pressure gradient over Yucatan and Central America is fairly flat, that maybe T.D 9 might just kinda of "morph" or become absorbed by an entirely newly developing area of low pressure?? In most years, we'd simply just watch all convection and energy simply get sucked up, stretched out, and pulled Northeastward along the advancing front. Whether such a redeveloped W. Caribbean low were considered the same identity as T.D. 9 or not, would be essentially academic. Such a process however, would seem to aid in pulling in, and salvaging what vorticity that T.D.9 possesses.

THIS is the reason for my prior inquiry regarding the potential NCEP Modeling issues, and perhaps the reason why the GFS has seemingly altogether backed off on redevelopment of a significant tropical cyclone!

[floridasun78]

what i see nhc forecast weak low move very slow cross Yucatan wont move into nw carribbeam untill sat so may kill low

[ozonepete]

Its interesting to watch the lobe of energy begin to separate and pull ENE towards S. Florida, while meanwhile new strong convection is now bursting over Eastern Yucatan "which theoretically" would help cause to lower pressure with ongoing persistent convection. If the pressure gradient over Yucatan and Central America is fairly flat, that maybe T.D 9 might just kinda of "morph" or become absorbed by an entirely newly developing area of low pressure?? In most years, we'd simply just watch all convection and energy simply get sucked up, stretched out, and pulled Northeastward along the advancing front. Whether such a redeveloped W. Caribbean low were considered the same identity as T.D. 9 or not, would be essentially academic. Such a process however, would seem to aid in pulling in, and salvaging what vorticity that T.D.9 possesses.

THIS is the reason for my prior inquiry regarding the potential NCEP Modeling issues, and perhaps the reason why the GFS has seemingly altogether backed off on redevelopment of a significant tropical cyclone!

Your speculations/questions are great my friend. I think most of us are wondering the same things. But once again, as far as the GFS backing off altogether at the 12Z run, why blame the satellite issues? The Euro did the reverse, went from nothing to bullish from one run to another and they supposedly aren't affected. So what do we blame that on? I just posted in the models thread that these kind of sudden reversals are pretty common. I think we're expecting too much out of our very imperfect models because we hate waiting.

[chaser1]

GFS was modeling a cane to impact Florida from the gecko the most recent satellite problems is no excuse.

No Spiral, you are wrong. At no time did the GFS either harm, injure, or kill any innocent gecko's in the making of their forecasts, LOL.

Perhaps you are not understanding the point; T.D. 9 will weaken, strengthen, move inland and possibly fizzle out, or even become absorbed by a new area of forming low pressure. No one is suggesting that current satellite problems or the "cost of gasoline" have any impact on what is now happening or will happen to T.D. 9.

The "excuse" as you put it, that I and a couple of others are discussing, MIGHT possibly have to do with the integrity of TODAY'S RECENT & THE CURRENT accuracy of the GFS models which now, are no longer depicting a possible impact to Florida. We are questioning the validity of that mid term forecast due to the statement made by the Sr. Meteorologist over at NCEP which was posted earlier (SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE - .... HAS NOT RECEIVED A
FULL FEED OF SATELLITE DATA FOR INPUT INTO THE NUMERICAL MODELS.....POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE MODEL FORECASTS...)

[TheStormExpert]

It is moving towards a moist atmosphere over the Yucan and this may be its only saving grace because the BOC is bone dry.

Yes but all that moisture is thanks to a Non-Tropical Low which would likely kill this in an instant!

[blp]

Impressive blowup over Yucatan moving toward llc.

[ozonepete]

It is moving towards a moist atmosphere over the Yucan and this may be its only saving grace because the BOC is bone dry.
http://oi62.tinypic.com/976szr.jpg

Yes but all that moisture is thanks to a Non-Tropical Low which would likely kill this in an instant!

There is no non-tropical low pressure down there right now, only the TD, though there's a stationary front and a non-tropical low may form along it soon. And non-tropical lows often help intensify tropical lows by feeding moisture into them or helping evacuate air at high levels or both.