ATL: Ex NINE

[chaser1]

Center looks like it's onshore based on radar, but what's interesting is that it looks like it's accelerated slightly while the deep convection over Belize hasn't moved, so I'm wondering if the convection is beginning to suck the LLC in, and if so, a new one may form over the Caribbean in a day or two.

Kind of what i'm seeing, and exactly what i'm thinking. 'Course, doesn't mean that dry air won't still kill it, or that it won't be driven back to the west and go inland, but it "could" mean that ............... The Saga Continues

[chaser1]

Yes you can see the circulation is now inland and is still moving East.

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/sabancuy/sabancuy_anima.php

Thanks, blp. And from that radar we can clearly tell 3 things:

1. It has a clearly defined LLC.
2. It has banding features.
3. It's moving eastward.

Indeed! If it manages to keep that well defined llc things might get a bit interesting in the Caribbean. Thanks for the link Blp...

Correct me if i'm wrong, but didn't T.D. 9 display some of its best convection and over-all cloud structure while still inland, west of Veracruz?! LOL

[blp]

Man I reloaded and it looks better on radar with each image that comes in. Might be my eyes getting tired.

[floridasun78]

ok do we two player in gulf this post in outlook at 8pm 2. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a
non-tropical low pressure area is developing over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico. The low is expected to move east-northeastward,
and development into a subtropical or tropical cyclone is
unlikely due to unfavorable upper-level winds. Regardless of
development, this system is likely to cause heavy rainfall and
locally gusty winds over western Cuba, the southern portion of the
Florida Peninsula, and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[Hammy]

Man I reloaded and it looks better on radar with each image that comes in.

Better is the only direction the radar appearance can go, it if looks any worse it wouldn't show up at all.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1000 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 90.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[SeGaBob]

Well it's a remnant low now...

[TheStormExpert]

...GAME OVER!!!

[floridasun78]

ok look like td9 gone for good what nhc say so not thing going happen in nw carribbean

[chaser1]

...GAME OVER!!!

Your forecast regarding the potential re-development of a Tropical Storm in the W. Caribbean??

or, simply an emotional release?

[SFLcane]

This entire season atleast feels that way has been about phantom tc's from GIVE- FLORIDA -SOMETHING gfs

[fci]

I miss seeing Bones at this point....

[sunnyday]

We fell for it again.

[Hurricaneman]

We fell for it again.

The thing is with the satellite failure and network failure that caused it it might do more than what the models are saying due to not having the info and its gaining quite a bit of convection over the Yucatan and seems to be heading more east than ESE like the GFS is showing and moving more like the Euro and what the GFS was showing pre outage

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[wyq614]

I see convection firing near the center, and deep convections are also seen in the East Yucatan and Guatemala. We'll see if this can manage to get the convections organized while the center moving across the peninsula.

[blp]

SSD Imagery is back.....

[beoumont]

This entire season atleast feels that way has been about phantom tc's from GIVE- FLORIDA -SOMETHING gfs

The GFS almost, if not, every year spews out a fair number of phantom hurricanes on its long range maps over a full season.

It's just that some years, like this one, don't have a "reasonable" number of real storms as well; so the phantom ones seem to monopolize the attention of the hurricane enthusiast.

Time marches on.

[jlauderdal]

that setup is exactly what we though it would be last monday...moisture streaming towards florida on a front, limited if any tropical development and that is exactly what has happened.

[blp]

Ex TD 9 still has a good voriticity at the low levels and actually increased slightly in the last 3 hrs while over cental Yucatan. The area to the NE over the channel is still mostly 700mb based working down further to the 850 level. We could certainly see that area work to the surface today as some of the models have suggested. Morning visible imagery will be interesting. I would not count out ex TD 9 just yet.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

09L NINE 141023 1200 18.4N 90.5W ATL 20 1006