ATL: Ex NINE

caneman · #441 Postby **caneman** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:27 am

I agree with you. And while many are bashing the GFS for this system, I don't see where the Euro has performed any better. IT ain't over til it's over and it could certainly re-develop. I believe it has 24 hours or less to do so though.

#442 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:29 am

Here is a link with a loop of the first visible images:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

caneman · #443 Postby **caneman** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:40 am

What kind of odds does everyone give for re-generation or re-forming?

#444 Postby **crownweather** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:44 am

I'm reluctantly going with a 20 percent chance for re-generation. The reason why is that the satellite outage which just ended **may** have contaminated the American model guidance to a point that it dropped the TC formation in the northwest Caribbean. This is something that has been bugging me since yesterday. Also, it's interesting to note that the European model is more aggressive than the American model. Finally, the FIM model, FWIW, is still very much on board with TC development in the NW Caribbean by this weekend.

blp · #445 Postby **blp** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:47 am

gatorcane wrote:Here is a link with a loop of the first visible images:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/n ... PE=Instant

Great loop as the images start coming in. I love that site. I am wondering with TD9 being so small how well do we really believe the models have a handle on that system especially with how complicated the pattern is already with what is going on to the NE?

It needs to stay on a more easterly heading. If it starts diving SE as the NHC and GFS show then it is toast. We will see.

blp · #446 Postby **blp** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:49 am

crownweather wrote:I'm reluctantly going with a 20 percent chance for re-generation. The reason why is that the satellite outage which just ended **may** have contaminated the American model guidance to a point that it dropped the TC formation in the northwest Caribbean. This is something that has been bugging me since yesterday. Also, it's interesting to note that the European model is more aggressive than the American model. Finally, the FIM model, FWIW, is still very much on board with TC development in the NW Caribbean by this weekend.

I agree. I am waiting for the 12z models to see if they finally got all the data back in before taking the GFS seriously.

#447 Postby **tolakram** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:50 am

live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

#448 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 8:50 am

caneman wrote:What kind of odds does everyone give for re-generation or re-forming?

10% and that is generous

#449 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:16 am

jlauderdal wrote:
caneman wrote:What kind of odds does everyone give for re-generation or re-forming?

10% and that is generous

I'd move that decimal 2 places left.

#450 Postby **psyclone** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:42 am

i agree with the above post....1 in 1000. it's a lotto ticket at best. and there were plenty of us in this thread who were rightly skeptical of this thing becoming anything of consequence all along. Loving this late October weather here on the central florida gulf coast...warm sunny days and clear cool nights. current dewpoint in Tampa is 55...talk about a sterile, non tropical atmosphere.

#451 Postby **WPBWeather** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:57 am

psyclone wrote:i agree with the above post....1 in 1000. it's a lotto ticket at best. and there were plenty of us in this thread who were rightly skeptical of this thing becoming anything of consequence all along. Loving this late October weather here on the central florida gulf coast...warm sunny days and clear cool nights. current dewpoint in Tampa is 55...talk about a sterile, non tropical atmosphere.

Just move a little farther south in FL and there is plenty of tropical moisture. I do not know how posters who have had bad model data for the last few days can be so sure of their pronouncements. The corrected models runs will not start until later today.

Sanibel · #452 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:11 am

The current convection over the Yucatan Channel is probably sheared displaced energy from the Low. If it is it is telling you there's something to it. Whether it survives to get back over water is another story.

Frank2 · #453 Postby **Frank2** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:32 am

The season ends on November 30 - but we're almost there right now (a 55 DP in Tampa is a strong indicator)...

P.S. I'm glad it didn't turn into something - enough on my plate right now, that's for sure. Actually, tomorrow is the 9th anniversary of Wilma's landfall in SW Florida - that was pretty stressful for S2K members who live down here. I evacuated to Sebring on Sunday evening, and it was a good thing - my building was without water and power and gasoline for 5 long days (and my employer was closed for 9 days for the same reasons), so I stayed in Sebring until things settled down 10 days later - very stressful (and expensive)...

#454 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:01 am

The latest GFS model with some more data inputed into it now maintains his low across the Yucatan and shows some possible development in the NW Caribbean before it oddly drifts it S then SW into Nicaragua. So guess we'll need to watch this remnant low closely to see what happens if it can emerge in the NW Caribbean and not get too disrupted on it's journey over land.

#455 Postby **WPBWeather** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:05 am

gatorcane wrote:The latest GFS model with some more data inputed into it now maintains his low across the Yucatan and shows some possible development in the NW Caribbean before it oddly drifts it S then SW into Nicaragua. So guess we'll need to watch this remnant low closely to see what happens if it can emerge in the NW Caribbean and not get too disrupted on it's journey over land.

Well said.

#456 Postby **wxman57** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:12 am

12Z GFS depicts more like a weak wave on the cold front that drifts west into Honduras/Nicaragua with building high pressure over the SE U.S. Nine is gone and it isn't coming back.

floridasun78 · #457 Postby **floridasun78** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:12 am

good thing sat pic are back let see what do in carribbean

stormlover2013 · #458 Postby **stormlover2013** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:13 am

guys lets be honest here and realistic, this will be nothing but a rain maker.....just my opinion

#459 Postby **gatorcane** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:19 am

I am seeing increased convection over the remnant low looking at the latest SAT imagery, saved image below:

HURRICANELONNY · #460 Postby **HURRICANELONNY** » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:23 am

stormlover2013 wrote:guys lets be honest here and realistic, this will be nothing but a rain maker.....just my opinion

Agreed. It always was. Just models overeacting. Well. it was a little hype to the end of a quiet year. If we rely only on the GFS it would of been a distructive year. As for whats left of the low. I think it will stay south of me to make a nice weekend.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html

ATL: Ex NINE

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