ATL: Ex NINE

[SouthDadeFish]

I think there is little question that daytime heating over the Yucatan destabilized the atmosphere, which allowed convection to fire overland today. Sure the remnants of TD 9 helped, but if that convection fired during the overnight hours, it would have been more impressive, in my opinion. Nonetheless, there is an area of enhanced relative vorticity in the Western Caribbean in October, and thus it should be watched. I don't think 57 is saying you shouldn't watch it, but rather there is a greater chance for no development rather than development. I think this is a very fair assessment.

[ozonepete]

I think there is little question that daytime heating over the Yucatan destabilized the atmosphere, which allowed convection to fire overland today. Sure the remnants of TD 9 helped, but if that convection fired during the overnight hours, it would have been more impressive, in my opinion. Nonetheless, there is an area of enhanced relative vorticity in the Western Caribbean in October, and thus it should be watched. I don't think 57 is saying you shouldn't watch it, but rather there is a greater chance for no development rather than development. I think this is a very fair assessment.

So there is a chance and so we watch. If there were no chance we wouldn't have to watch. Not complicated.

[Blown Away]

00z position...

[floridasun78]

if i not mistaking if their low over land could cause storms to former that area what likely we see seen tonight we should know more by friday as move to east over nw Caribbean

[CDO62]

Dry air to the north doesn't appear to be a factor yet.

[floridasun78]

Dry air to the north doesn't appear to be a factor yet.

as long it stay north of 94l it be ok

[ozonepete]

You guys are on to what's happening, CD and flsun78. You made the point very well. Dry air is over-hyped so far. Even the most excellent Dr. Masters, whom I revere, seems to be making too much of the dry air. Not buying the dry air story yet.

[gatorcane]

Big upper-high sitting right over the NW Caribbean right now and shear is on the decrease in the NW Carib (for now at least):

[Sanibel]

94 shot black IR over the center while over land. Good sign.

[SFLcane]

Plenty of dry air just to the north that's for sure.

[floridasun78]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html here Water Vapor Loop you see their no dry air in nw carribbean to ne as line of moisture moving from east pac to carribbean

[floridasun78]

Plenty of dry air just to the north that's for sure.

dry air moving ne

[SFLcane]

00z models have 94L doing loops then back over land.

[floridasun78]

00z models have 94L doing loops then back over land.

what Model do that?

[floridasun78]

00z models have 94L doing loops then back over land.

let see what happen

[ozonepete]

Plenty of dry air just to the north that's for sure.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... 6icHHl.jpg

dry air moving ne

The dry air that is in the GOM is not moving south at all and will not be an issue in the NW Caribbean as of now.

[ozonepete]

00z models have 94L doing loops then back over land.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... ks_00z.png

let see what happen

The models are all over the place because this is so weak, thus low or mid level steering winds could guide it. We have to wait until it gets back over water.

The models that take it east and then do a U-turn do that because they expect the strong mid-latitude trough to push it eastward and then the trough lifts out and the trade winds and mid-levels gain control again and push it back westward. Way too early to tell.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, ozonepete, if 94L ( or the main low level vorticity at least) can get back over the Gulf of Honduras, it will meander around in weak steering currents, at least for possibly a couple of days or so.

I agree for now the dry air isn't making much more southward progress. Will monitor that closely the next 24-36 hours. Should this trend continues into the weekend, and shear values drop with a developing anticyclone and steamy ssts in the NW Caribbean if the main vorticity gets back over water, then 94L's demise assumed by many may have been a bit premature. We will find out.

[northjaxpro]

Also, apparently NHC is watching and taking note of trends as well as they have scheduled for now Recon to fly out on Saturday, if necessary.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 221354
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT WED 22 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE FIX OF TD #9
NEAR 18.5N 86.5W AT 25/1730Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

[floridasun78]

look like that flight was cancel 000
NOUS42 KNHC 231337
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT THU 23 OCTOBER 2014
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z OCTOBER 2014
TCPOD NUMBER.....14-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.