ATL: HANNA - Models

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Hurricaneman
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ATL: HANNA - Models

#1 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:55 pm

The models seem to be playing catchup with the outage over lest see what the 18z shows
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#2 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 23, 2014 12:56 pm

12Z GFS at 60 hours:

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#3 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:23 pm

ECMWF similar to the GFS but slightly weaker. Here is the 12Z ECMWF frame 72 hours from now with a 1009MB low then ends up moving SW into Nicaragua/Honduras and dissipates:

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#4 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:24 pm

12z Euro kills it after 96hrs.
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#5 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 23, 2014 1:51 pm

Most of the 12Z GFS ensembles are turning the invest back NW north of Honduras keeping it over water, 114 hour saved image below:

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#6 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Oct 23, 2014 2:02 pm

seems as though looking at the GFS ensembles it seems as though the GFS is heading slowly back to the solution it had pre blackout minus the intensity

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#7 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:14 pm

link to 18Z SHIPs output:
http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _ships.txt
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:34 pm, edited 5 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#8 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:15 pm

Guys this is proof!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#9 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:36 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Guys this is proof!!


proof or poof :roll:
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#10 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 23, 2014 3:51 pm

Take it for what it's worth, as it is the NAM, but it has trended a little stronger this run, down to 1003MB by hour 63. The NAM is based off NCEP data which had the data outage the past couple of days.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#11 Postby Blown Away » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:23 pm

Image
00z...

Image
00z...
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#12 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 23, 2014 9:53 pm

FWIW, 00Z NAM coming in a little bit stronger:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#13 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Oct 23, 2014 10:56 pm

00z GFS has a tropical storm (or at least a strong closed low) sitting in the Florida Straits.

.....

.............

In 21 hours: http://imageshack.com/a/img673/2940/N206FL.gif
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:17 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#14 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:06 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:00z GFS has a tropical storm (or at least a strong closed low) sitting in the Florida Straits.

.....

.............

In 18 hours: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS/2 ... sl_018.gif


I was just about to ask what happened to the GFS run, Thanks Evil I clicked the link but did not seem to work.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#15 Postby boca » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:12 pm

I dont see anything in the Florida Straits at 117hours their is nothing there.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#16 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:14 pm

Realized that about the hotlink. Here is the 21 hour frame:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#17 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:15 pm

Any link or map?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#18 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:16 pm

Right on cue there Evil thanks 8-)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#19 Postby boca » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:19 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Realized that about the hotlink. Here is the 21 hour frame:

Image


Thx Evil.
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#20 Postby Hurricane Alexis » Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:56 pm

That GFS run brings a lot more rain to SE FL. That's the closest the GFS has brought the low to Florida
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