ATL: Ex NINE

[Sanibel]

If the Caribbean is going to reactivate it it won't be until later tonight according to normal lag time reaction to getting back over water.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I see the circulation y'all see, but I think it is too far north. It looks more in a position to get absorbed with the front like the NHC noted.

And you can see the general motion looks ENE.

If that is the case and the storms maintain them selves that would mean more rain here in south Florida. I mentioned it last night and I still see it today on radar and the cloud direction, something is turning counter clock wise here between the keys and Miami.

[jlauderdal]

Bones doesn't wait for the NHC, the NHC waits for Bones. He's "called it" as of 10:15am CDT. Cold front dipping into NW Caribbean, jet stream edging south over what's left of TD Nine/94L. 94L is heading into the light...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/flatline.gif

its now official..time to move on

[wxman57]

I think that the "circulation" that's being observed by satellite is mostly NE winds north of the cold front and SW winds south of the front. The front extends into the NW Caribbean now. Increasing SW winds aloft mean shear is on the increase.

[floridasun78]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... p&TYPE=ssm is not dead until navy fat lady sing invrst 94l still on site wx need call navy

[Hammy]

Not dead yet, in fact development chances have been increased (even if slightly) for the 3-5 day period.

[gatorcane]

Up to 20%:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 241732
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the extreme western Caribbean
Sea is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine.
This system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, and
redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur while the low drifts
eastward or meanders for the next few days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[gatorcane]

LLC has become quite easy to spot and has become a bit more defined the last several hours...it's just east of Northern Belize moving slowly east:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... lor=yellow

[lordkev]

I'm new...can someone explain who Bones is?

[tolakram]

I'm new...can someone explain who Bones is?

GOOD GRIEF! Seriously though, Welcome to Storm 2K. Bones is Dr. McCoy from Star Trek, who had lots of famous lines, one being ... it's dead Jim.

Your assignment is to watch all the original Star Trek episodes over the long winter.

[northjaxpro]

I will say that any low level vorticity meandering around in the Gulf of Honduras/ NW Carribbean, especially factoring in climatology for this time of year, we never should have a blind eye towards it.

NHC has changed the terminology from the TWO from 8 a.m. of "redevelopment is unlikely" to "redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur" at 2 p.m. That in itself is an interesting little change. This leads me to believe that Avila and the other NHC forecasters are seeing subtle changes in the five day outlook from the models that may show that shear may decrease, along with relative humidity values being sufficient in the region to become a bit more conducive for possible development. As of now, I will not give 94L any last rites yet.

[wxman57]

Euro coming in. Here's the 48hr panel valid 7am CDT Sunday. Cold front dipping well south across the western Caribbean. 94L is that weak frontal low east of Honduras. The low moves west and inland into Honduras by Monday. Plenty of dry air and increasing wind shear across the NW Caribbean. I wouldn't read too much into the different terminology or different development chances between Beven & Avila at the NHC. I'd say that chances are below 10%, maybe in the 5% range for any significant spin-up in the NW Caribbean next week.

[northjaxpro]

Well, wxman, should that scenario above plays out, then that will be it. But, this is not etched in stone just yet. However, there is a slight possibility that the front may not absorb the remnant vorticity of 94L. It is a slim possibility of this happening albeit, but it is there nonetheless.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-87&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[wxman57]

Here's a current analysis of the NW Caribbean. Front extends right down into 94L (the red crosshairs according to the 18Z guidance position). I wouldn't say winds are 20kts associated with 90L. More like 5-10 kts in the area, and no significant circulation remaining.

[lordkev]

I'm new...can someone explain who Bones is?

GOOD GRIEF! Seriously though, Welcome to Storm 2K. Bones is Dr. McCoy from Star Trek, who had lots of famous lines, one being ... it's dead Jim.

Your assignment is to watch all the original Star Trek episodes over the long winter.

And here I was thinking it was a respected meteorologist.

[alienstorm]

At this point I am hesitant to say its over, you can clear see the rotation just off Northern Belize. This is a wait and see but given the time of year I am not throwing it out yet.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... lor=yellow

[northjaxpro]

I'm new...can someone explain who Bones is?

GOOD GRIEF! Seriously though, Welcome to Storm 2K. Bones is Dr. McCoy from Star Trek, who had lots of famous lines, one being ... it's dead Jim.

Your assignment is to watch all the original Star Trek episodes over the long winter.

And here I was thinking it was a respected meteorologist.

Well, the whole concept of bringing Bones on here is from our resident respected meteorologist, wxman57.

[wxman57]

Hey! Don't bad-mouth Bones!

Euro's in through next Friday. No redevelopment of 94L but it does predict another East Pac storm south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week.

[Sanibel]

The western part of the surface feature was always the stronger half of this Low. It has to get back over water before you can tell if it's going to re-fire. Right now it doesn't look too hopeful.