ATL: HANNA - Models

[stormlover2013]

Poof it's done

[Blown Away]

00z Models...


00z Intensity...

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I was going to post this last night, but will now. I know there is not a lot of hope for this invest, but no one is posting any of the model runs for this, just wondering why.

[USTropics]

I was going to post this last night, but will now. I know there is not a lot of hope for this invest, but no one is posting any of the model runs for this, just wondering why.

My assumption would be because model support has severely diminished. There was a lot of hype for this area/TD #9 when the GFS and a few other models were showing a significant storm impacting the states. If you disregard any of what the models show, and just look at actual conditions, the upper level atmosphere has not been conducive for development. The front extends into the NW Caribbean currently and has been bringing unfavorable conditions over 94L. The last ECWMF run moved the low inland over Honduras by Monday. The GFS has not done well with forecasting the cold fronts lately, but even the GFS has a really strong front moving into the GOM by the end of next week. The ECMWF has an even stronger front moving into the GOM later next week as well (meaning unfavorable conditions even if something were to move in that general direction).

[gatorcane]

The 12Z NAVGEM for the first time has started showing some development of this invest in about 3-4 days from now and eventually develops a strengthening tropical storm just east of the Yucatan by hour 144:

[gatorcane]

18Z NAVGEM showing development now in the 48 to 54 hour timeframe, 48 hour frame below:

[SFLcane]

horrible model there gatorcane... even if it developes it appears to be heading right back over land. On another subject European is sending some cold wx down the state in a couple of days.

[gatorcane]

horrible model there gatorcane... even if it developes it appears to be heading right back over land. On another subject European is sending some cold wx down the state in a couple of days.

Not necessarily. The models are assuming this invest stays a weak low where it gets carried by low-level steering. Of course that is the probably outcome based on the better models, but there is still a low chance this develops into something more and that could change where it ends up ultimately heading.

[gatorcane]

The UKMET is showing some development the next few days. Also the NAVGEM continues to show development but it does have support now from a good model now:

[CrazyC83]

Do any models complete the loop, or does it go into Central America and die out (or cross into the EPAC)?

[Blown Away]

Does the GFS get some credit for showing this at one time?

[jlauderdal]

Does the GFS get some credit for showing this at one time?

its up to alonyo whether MU gets credit for anything, ever..my feeling is its been so awful that even when its right its still wrong