Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Well, we have a nice cool dome of High pressure to the north /northwest of us now which has bought absolutely sunny, cool and beautiful Autumn weather here in the Jax area now for the past couple of days. Also, that big Nor'easter off the New England coast is also a big contributor of filtering in that cool air to our region currently. Max temps here at my locale have only reached 75 degrees both today and yesterday, and morning lows have been in the low-to mid 50s.

However, it will be much cooler tomorrow morning. Temps currently have already dropped to 57 degrees at my locale and it looks like we will drop down into the mid-upper 40s across inland Northeast Florida in the morning.

This will continue right into the weekend across the northern peninsula, and actually most of the peninsula, except for extreme South Florida and the Keys, where the frontal system will keep them with good rain chances at least into Saturday.

[northjaxpro]

Bottomed out at 46 degrees at my home locale at sunrise this morning, the coldest to this point in this autumn season. Ideal radiational cooling conditions early this morning. I actually broike out the sweater for the first time this season. As mentioned above in my post, more beautiful, autumn weather in store through the weekend here in Jax.

[NDG]

My thinking is that is that the wx pattern will warm back up to average to above rage after this weekend with the PNA forecasted to go positive and the NAO to stay near neutral. I am not buying the euro's long range forecast.

[asd123]

My thinking is that is that the wx pattern will warm back up to average to above rage after this weekend with the PNA forecasted to go positive and the NAO to stay near neutral. I am not buying the euro's long range forecast.

Yeah, but the Euro has been consistent, with the colder weather forecast moving closer and closer to short range.

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits


But what about earlier in the month when the AO was at record low levels, NAO negative and PNA positive; not a trace of cold air for Orlando.

[NDG]

My thinking is that is that the wx pattern will warm back up to average to above rage after this weekend with the PNA forecasted to go positive and the NAO to stay near neutral. I am not buying the euro's long range forecast.

Yeah, but the Euro has been consistent, with the colder weather forecast moving closer and closer to short range.

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
[img]http://i62.tinypic.com/300urfb.png

But what about earlier in the month when the AO was at record low levels, NAO negative and PNA positive; not a trace of cold air for Orlando.

If you remember earlier in the month there was some record lows in parts of central FL, Orlando came very close to record lows. It probably did not get any colder in parts of central FL because of the very warm SSTs still surrounding the Peninsula.

BTW, last night's Euro shows the next trough to be a bit more progressive now closer to the GFS.

[asd123]

As we are closing off October, I have to say that the coldest we got so far this season was 56 degrees at Orlando. Looking at all the models, I can say that for the next two weeks at least, there is no prospect for cold weather. The coldest in my opinion as I see it for the next two weeks (leading up to 11/9) is the mid to upper 50s for Central Florida.

I know the El Nino is trying o so desperately to ramp itself up, and with the Gulf of Alaska cooling, what do you guys think the months of November and December will be like for Florida? Are we going to roast for those months or are we going to see some heavy duty cold air?

[StormingB81]

WOW!!! Forecast is calling for upper 40s is Orlando on Saturday Morning...Isn't this a tad early? Seems the cold fronts are coming early....Could be an interesting winter

[NDG]

WOW!!! Forecast is calling for upper 40s is Orlando on Saturday Morning...Isn't this a tad early? Seems the cold fronts are coming early....Could be an interesting winter

I think the upper 40s are forecasted for Sunday morning not Saturday morning. Compared to last year, yes, this is earlier, but is not out of the ordinary to start seeing 40s for lows as we go into November, in fact late October of 2008 the Orlando area saw low temps in the low 40s with upper 30s in the NW area.
It could be a fairly cooler than average November for central FL if the troughiness pattern continues for the eastern US, the ensembles have been persistent in trying to get the NAO and AO to go positive in the long range but so far it has not really happened.

[northjaxpro]

No, the +NAO/AO has not materialized yet. Also, we may be seeung parts of North Florida dipping down into the upper 30s by Sunday morning as a decnt shot of cold air comes down into the Deep South this weekend.

[NDG]

Yes, I agree about parts of northern FL seeing 30s Sunday morning. We are lucking out that the high pressure center will stay north of the Peninsula otherwise we would had probably seen many record breaking lows Sunday morning, which by the way Orlando's record low for Sunday morning is 47, we could at least tie it, IMO.

[gatorcane]

Looking at the ECMWF and GFS this morning, seems like once this cold front passes, there are no more in the forseeable future out through 10 days. Perhaps the +NAO/AO may materialize after the passage of this weekend's front, which could mean a warm early half of November.

[psyclone]

NWS is biting on the chilly weekend solutions with low 70's-low 50's for the tampa bay area and 60's-40's just to the north...the coolest this season by far. fortunately it lifts out quickly...too bad it's centered on the weekend. we're getting to the time of year that I cheer on above normal temps.

[TheStormExpert]

Well it looks like the Euro was originally right with it's predictions on how strong this weekends East Coast trough would be cause within the past 24-48hrs. the GFS has trended much cooler overall.

This may not be the last cool/cold front within the next 10 days or so, as just now the NAO is negative and expected to stay like this through the first 3-5 days of November with the AO being slightly negative briefly and the PNA going positive as well we could see yet another brief cool down (although much weaker than this weekends) around November 7-9th.

EDIT: 12z GFS has really trended colder with the November 7-9th cold front very similar now to the strength of this weekends trough.

[FireRat]

Aha! there's our real Fall month coming up! The latest forecast lows for sunday morning were 55 in Fort Lauderdale, upper 40s at Immokalee. Highs only 75, Sure will feel amazing!

[NDG]

Well it looks like the Euro was originally right with it's predictions on how strong this weekends East Coast trough would be cause within the past 24-48hrs. the GFS has trended much cooler overall.

This may not be the last cool/cold front within the next 10 days or so, as just now the NAO is negative and expected to stay like this through the first 3-5 days of November with the AO being slightly negative briefly and the PNA going positive as well we could see yet another brief cool down (although much weaker than this weekends) around November 7-9th.

EDIT: 12z GFS has really trended colder with the November 7-9th cold front very similar now to the strength of this weekends trough.

Yeah, the Euro was originally correct then it back out of it before trending colder again during the last couple of days.
But I don't see where the PNA is going positive by looking the ensembles? Do you have a link for it for what you are looking at?

[NDG]

Wow, just looking for the first time today's 12z GFS run raw numbers which has low 40s for lows all the way down to interior parts of South FL with upper 30s down to parts of central FL for Sunday Morning.

[northjaxpro]

Wow, just looking for the first time today's 12z GFS run raw numbers which has low 40s for lows all the way down to interior parts of South FL with upper 30s down to parts of central FL for Sunday Morning.

Yeah, and possible near freezing temps in the colder, interior panhandle (Crestview) and Big Bend (Tallahassee) Both are calling for possible mid 30s by Sunday morning. Actually GFS has been playing catch up to EURO, which has been consistenly been the colder bias model for this upcoming cold snap. Cold advection looks rather strong with this upper trough sharpening and diving down the Eastern CONUS this weekend. The Cold Dome of High Pressure does look to stay just north of the peninsula, if the current forecast by the models hold up, and it will slide east beginning Sunday. This would allow to bring winds from the north to northeast across the peninsula, which would moderate temps along the immediate east coast of the peninsula. This will probably keep mins from getting to what the GFS is depicting down across the southern peninsula during the weekend.

A chilly, crisp weekend nevertheless for the peninsula, the real first true blast of this Fall season for sure on the way!!
Below is the 18Z GFS temperature forecast for 12Z Sunday morning. Will watch this closely the next couple of days.

[gatorcane]

Yeah chilly indeed and the FL peninsula's first true cold blast though it does look ephemeral with the return flow off the Atlantic starting Sunday night (as shown by the graphic below). By the way I like that temperature graphic from Levi's site. Never knew that existed!

[northjaxpro]

Yeah chilly indeed and the FL peninsula's first true cold blast though it does look ephemeral with the return flow off the Atlantic starting Sunday night (as shown by the graphic below). By the way I like that temperature graphic from Levi's site. Never knew that existed!

I occasionally observe grapgics from Cowan's site, which is a very good site indeed. However, I seldom, if at all post those graphics over here on Storm2K because of copyright infringement issue, if it applies to this particualr situation. I took a real gamble to post the temp graphic, and I apologize to the mods if that violation did occur.

[gatorcane]

Models seem to be trending colder with this cold front and have noticed the various NWS offices across Florida have lowered their temps some for Sat. night. Temperatures across South Florida are going to be threatening records and will be some 15 degrees below normal Saturday night.