ATL: Ex NINE

[floridasun78]

bones mccoy he know when man not dead yet Captain James T. Kirk sorry say he still alive he live other day

[Blown Away]

STILL 20%

[gatorcane]

Text of best track:

At 0000 UTC, 25 October 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.1°N and 86.2°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 60 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

[blp]

Here is the NHC's take on where the low is going. Looks to be continuing on a ENE heading. This is slightly different than where the Euro has it. The Euro kept it moving East then moving SE. Both the GFS and Euro develop the vorticity in the next couple of days after the front moves out, one limiting factor is land interaction so staying further North may help it.

[Blown Away]

[Blown Away]

TAFB keeping a low through 72 hours and moving it NW... Stays over water...

[sunnyday]

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur
while it meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[DESTRUCTION5]

TD or weak TS looks very possible on most modeling but all agree On dissipation in or before a Yucatan landfall.

[Sanibel]

There's definitely energy in that Low seeing the black IR bursts however the air over us right now is pretty crisp and chilly. I think the center is further south than they are indicating on this page. 2014 did not like formation.

[gatorcane]

There is a very large upper-high / anticyclone sitting right over the Western Caribbean as shown by the graphic below. It is very evident from looking at the satellite loops over the area this morning. The GFS continues to not dip the westerlies that deep into the NW Caribbean the next couple of days despite the ECMWF wanting to do so. Plus there is some vorticity at the surface around where the NHC has the X lingering over some very warm SSTs. So for those reasons the area needs to be watched and keeping the invest active makes sense, though chances do look low on tropical development.

[stormlover2013]

It's been poof for 3 days now

[tolakram]

Live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=yellow

[NDG]

It looks like it has now attached to the frontal boundary but I hate to call it a cold front

The question is if it will have enough time to organize back up to fully tropical system as it eventually starts retro grading westward back to the Yucatan.

[floridasun78]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
is associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression Nine and a
cold front. This system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, and redevelopment, if any, will be slow to occur
while the disturbance meanders for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Blown Away]

[Blown Away]

Looks like TAFB expecting the front to leave the 94L behind...

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

At 1800 UTC, 25 October 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 17.7°N and 83.7°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 9 kt at a bearing of 120 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb.

[Blown Away]

Up from 20kt...

[wxman57]

There's nothing there but a cold front, and no 25kt wind, either. More like 10-15 kts at best, and no circulation. Some 20kt winds behind the front.