Please don't underestimate this hurricane..

JetMaxx · #1 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:45 pm

I've seen a few comments, both here and at other wx forums today that "Isabel is weakening"....comment such as "Issy is history", and "Isabel won't be a major hurricane at landfall"...."it's falling apart".

Here's a history lesson. About this time of September fourteen years ago there was a large but weakened hurricane in almost the same spot as Isabel is at this moment. Hurricane Hugo like Isabel had been a powerful monster....a strong cat-4 across the northeast Caribbean and at one point east of the Antilles, a 160 mph cat-5.

After an encounter with Puerto Rico and being pulled NW by a trough, Hugo weakened...from a 140 mph cat-4 near St Croix to a 105 mph cat-2 at 25 N - 71 W.....only 60 miles from where Isabel is located, and Isabel is struggling. Central pressure is up to 950 mb and winds IMHO down to 125-130 mph.

At this point on the map, hurricane Hugo was even weaker....958 mb and 105-110 mph. However, when Hugo began moving again, he accelerated to the NW, steered between high pressure to the northeast and an upper low to the southwest. During the last 30 hours before landfall, Hugo once again intensified into a monster....135-140 mph winds and a central pressure falling to 934 mb.

I strongly suspect that Isabel will also begin to intensify when she accelerates N to NNW between high pressure to the NE and a trough approaching from the west. I won't be surprised if Isabel is a cat-4 hurricane at landfall on the North Carolina and Virginia coasts....and on the projected track, it will be devastating for the North Carolina Outer Banks and Greater Norfolk, Virginia.

If anyone tries to make you believe Isabel is finished as a major threat...or going to fall apart....just remember two words: HUGO and HAZEL. :o :o :o

#2 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:47 pm

Read "Isabel's Weakening Trend...what's happening"...

#3 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:48 pm

OH YUCK...please don't say another HUGO :o :o

GalvestonDuck · #4 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:49 pm

Greats posts, AFM and Perry.

#5 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:54 pm

Ditto what Galveston (aka AFLAC) said!

JetMaxx · #6 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:00 pm

This could be far worse than Hugo....because the worst part of Hugo's eyewall moved inland over sparsely populated areas between Charleston and Georgetown, SC.

I'm afraid Isabel will be more like hurricane Hazel...with the east and NE eyewall impacting vunerable areas such as the Outer Banks from Ocracoke to Hatteras to Nags Head...as well as a large metropolitan area (Norfolk - Virginia Bch - Hampton Roads) with the very worst of the wind, and even worse....a devastating storm surge.

A large 130-140 mph hurricane moving rapidly NNW just west of Chesapeake Bay is a nightmare storm surge scenario....and to be honest, one I never thought I'd ever see. Most major east coast hurricanes pass east of Norfolk, Ocean City, and Chesapeake Bay. This is a very unusual track....and according to a weather historian friend, the last severe hurricane on a similar track was over 180 years ago. :o

It's not a stretch to say this hurricane will put storm surge flooding into areas where no one alive has ever seen it. Folks who didn't evacuate but survived hurricanes such as Gloria, Emily, and Donna will drown if they try and ride this hurricane out. :o :o

#7 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:01 pm

God....help these people, then.......

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:02 pm

Thanks Perry..Great post and advice :wink:

nicholle · #9 Postby **nicholle** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:03 pm

JetMaxx - so do you see Isabel regaining strength after she turns NW?

PTrackerLA · #10 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:05 pm

That's a really good point, just because she's struggling now doesn't mean she can't strengthen up to a 4 again. But for some reason I only think this will be a 2 at landfall just because the last few storms to hit the EC all weakend alot before landfall, can we say FLOYD!

Lindaloo · #11 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:12 pm

I try to avoid posts that mention weakening or things of that nature. Always listen to your local mets for they know your area better than anyone.

And always... hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Perry... if you already read this before I could re-word it, I sent you a PM!!

Tip · #12 Postby **Tip** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:16 pm

Well it may regenerate, but the eye has now DISAPPEARED. May be more than just a change from Annular to basic. Even basic CAT3's have eyes.

GalvestonDuck · #13 Postby **GalvestonDuck** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:19 pm

Lindaloo wrote:I try to avoid posts that mention anything about what Perry is talking about. Always listen to your local mets for they know your area better than anyone.

And always... hope for the best, but prepare for the worst.

Just to quickly get some clarification and spare feelings -- you avoid the subject, not the poster, right?

#14 Postby **alicia-w** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:29 pm

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

The eye has disappeared?? What are YOU looking at?

Lindaloo · #15 Postby **Lindaloo** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:18 pm

Tip · #16 Postby **Tip** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:25 pm

On visable not vapor Alice W!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

wrkh99 · #17 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:28 pm

Bump for linda LOL

JetMaxx · #18 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:30 pm

1) Hugo also "lost" his eye north of Hispanola....but it was very distinct at landfall near CHS..

2) Floyd weakened because it was traveling across seas churned up and upwelled from the passage of 110 mph hurricane Dennis only a couple weeks earlier. Bonnie weakened because dry air was drawn into the circulation.

Hurricane Bertha DIDN'T weaken, but was intensifying sharply at landfall...as did hurricanes Hugo and Emily.
Hurricane Fran didn't weaken either...

The fact Isabel will be accelerating N to NW makes intensification more likely (anyone remember hurricane Opal? What about hurricane Bob in 1991?).

I'm not trying to scare people....but instead stop this "it's dying, so let's not worry about it....it'll be so weak at landfall we won't even notice". Don't get me wrong....I hope to God it does weaken; but everything I know about hurricanes, tropical meteorology, AND hurricanes similar to Isabel in the past I've witnessed...tells me Isabel will be a powerful hurricane at landfall; and on a forecast track that will MAXIMISE the storm surge heights along the Outer Banks, the coastline from Virginia to southern New Jersey; and especially in Chesapeake and Delaware Bay....possibly higher than anything anyone living has ever witnessed.

It is very alarming to me...and guarantee you the EMA and Civil Defense officials from New Jersey to North Carolina are scared to death....as is Dr Max Mayfield.

It's not going to be the most powerful hurricane in history...but it's IMO going to be very large and intense, and unfortunately coming in at the worst possible angle.

#19 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 3:31 pm

Bumpity - bump!!! :wink:

JCT777 · #20 Postby **JCT777** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 4:09 pm

Perry - you make some great points, and I would also caution anyone in Isabel's path to not be fooled into thinking Isabel is falling apart or won't be much of a storm at landfall. If Isabel hits the outer banks of NC or the Hampton Roads area in VA, I would think Isabel would likely be no worse than a minimal Cat 3 storm - which would definitely not be a walk in the park to those within 100 miles of the the landfall area! :o

Please don't underestimate this hurricane..

Please don't underestimate this hurricane..

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