EPAC: VANCE - Remnants

[cycloneye]

EP, 93, 2014102506, , BEST, 0, 118N, 931W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014102512, , BEST, 0, 117N, 936W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014102518, , BEST, 0, 116N, 941W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 93, 2014102600, , BEST, 0, 114N, 946W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 120, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0,

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT OCT 25 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a broad area of low
pressure centered a couple hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Environmental conditions are forecast to become
increasingly conducive for some development after Sunday, and
tropical cyclone formation is likely by the middle of next week
while the system drifts toward the west-northwest or northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Blake

[supercane4867]

November

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/26/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 38 42 45 48 52 54 59
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 32 38 42 45 48 52 54 59
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 29 31 35 40
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 19 16 15 13 14 10 11 10 11 6 8 7 5
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -2 -5 -6 -5 -5 -1 1 -2 -5 -6
SHEAR DIR 151 144 138 144 142 142 137 123 149 144 142 172 146
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 151 151 149 148 148 147 149 152 154 154
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 7 5 7 6 8 7 9 8 10
700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 61 62 60 60 53 54 53 54 50 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 10 11 12 13 12 13
850 MB ENV VOR -6 -5 -1 3 8 11 28 25 29 19 27 27 33
200 MB DIV -3 14 30 39 62 50 54 50 24 11 13 16 23
700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 428 475 490 483 480 479 456 428 392 367 346 356 408
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.4 13.6 13.4
LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.2 95.8 96.2 96.7 97.3 97.8 98.1 98.5 99.2 99.9 100.6 101.3
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 3 4 4 3 3
HEAT CONTENT 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 13 23 39 50

Very favorable environment.

[Yellow Evan]

November

http://i.imgur.com/1YWfDCt.png

http://i.imgur.com/qEn4Ml6.png

12z Euro brought this into MX as a very strong hurricane. This could be one of those long trackers that sit offshore MX. Only thing the season has lacked.

I see no reason why we can't get storms in November this year. Dry air due to the subtropical jet lowering has bee a non-issue yet and likely won't anytime soon. ITCZ hasn't shut down yet.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

So, if this would be named it'd be Vance?

[Yellow Evan]

So, if this would be named it'd be Vance?

Yes.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing some disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to
become increasingly conducive for development, and tropical cyclone
formation is likely later this week while the system drifts toward
the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and Euro have both latched on to the idea of a very powerful hurricane hitting Mexico. Very similar timing to the 1959 MX hurricane, which hit near the Day of the Dead. The Lash of St. Franic 2014 ersion.

[hurricanes1234]

Doesn't the above model show it staying offshore?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure centered a few hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce disorganized shower
and thunderstorm activity. Dry air is currently inhibiting
development, but environmental conditions are forecast to become
more conducive for tropical cyclone formation later this week while
the system drifts toward the west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

Doesn't the above model show it staying offshore?

No. Only the FIM and CMC keep this offshore. Both are horrible models, and the FIM even has it turning towards MX by day 10l.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/26/14 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 38 44 47 51 52 57 62
V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 27 33 38 44 47 51 52 57 62
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 28 31 35 38 41 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 13 13 9 11 11 9 4 6 4 7
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -4 -5 -6 -5 -5 -1 0 -3 -3 -1
SHEAR DIR 142 133 131 134 140 107 107 99 129 136 156 143 117
SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.8 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 149 147 147 148 148 148 147 149 149
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 63 62 60 57 52 54 55 55 52 52
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 10 10 12 11 13 14
850 MB ENV VOR -5 -2 4 8 13 22 18 19 9 5 10 12 21
200 MB DIV 6 20 35 61 62 56 85 54 0 -21 -2 22 39
700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 471 490 501 516 534 543 547 552 538 495 466 492 541
LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.1 12.0 11.6
LONG(DEG W) 95.2 95.9 96.5 96.9 97.3 97.8 98.0 98.3 98.7 99.2 99.6 100.0 100.2
STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 3 2 2 2
HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 11 10 7 6 5 5 6 9 11 10

Should be fine for this to take off in a day or two.

[cycloneye]

Text of 18z Best Track:

At 1800 UTC, 26 October 2014, DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP93) was located in the Northeast Pacific basin at 9.4°N and 95°W. The current intensity was 20 kt and the center was moving at 5 kt at a bearing of 210 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/26/14 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 27 31 37 42 50 52 59 64 71
V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 27 31 37 42 50 52 59 64 71
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 21 22 24 27 30 33 38 43 48
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 14 14 11 10 10 12 11 8 4 6 5 6 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 133 123 117 89 87 93 94 106 97 132 127 105 75
SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 144 144 144 145 147 151 148 148 149 148
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 67 64 63 58 60 60 63 63 64 68
MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 11 11 13 15 18
850 MB ENV VOR -5 0 0 5 5 7 3 0 1 14 15 21 27
200 MB DIV 38 70 85 70 83 65 31 -4 -36 -32 -2 60 92
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 3
LAND (KM) 634 655 676 685 695 686 668 644 579 529 532 571 620
LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.3 9.5 9.9 10.5 11.0 11.0 10.7 10.3
LONG(DEG W) 95.0 95.2 95.4 95.5 95.7 95.7 95.7 96.0 96.6 97.0 97.2 97.5 97.8
STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 1 1 0 2 3 4 2 1 2 3
HEAT CONTENT 16 16 16 16 15 15 14 12 10 10 10 7 5

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure, located several hundred miles south of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for tropical cyclone formation later this week while the low drifts
toward the westward or west-northwest.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS has this stronger and hitting Colima just after truncation.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

EP, 93, 2014102700, , BEST, 0, 94N, 953W, 20, 1009, DB

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP932014 10/27/14 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 36 42 49 55 59 63 69 77
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 36 42 49 55 59 63 69 77
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 33 37 41 46 52 59
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 13 8 7 8 9 12 11 5 5 8 9 11 12
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -6 -5 -3 -4 -3 -6 -6 -6 -6 -5
SHEAR DIR 144 133 100 87 99 107 101 108 115 146 114 103 78
SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 147 148 149 149 149 149 147 148 149 148
200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 -53.2 -52.4
TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 9 8 8
700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 64 65 57 57 56 57 56 56 57 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 10 12 13 14 16 19
850 MB ENV VOR 0 0 1 4 8 7 3 1 4 11 16 17 31
200 MB DIV 46 58 52 59 54 56 5 -4 -34 7 28 62 92
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 652 662 674 672 655 634 606 574 534 522 554 627 688
LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.0 10.3 10.7 11.2 11.4 11.2 10.7 10.3
LONG(DEG W) 95.3 95.5 95.8 96.0 96.2 96.6 97.0 97.7 98.5 99.0 99.4 100.0 100.5
STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 5 4 2 3 4 3
HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 7 8 7 9 11

[hurricanes1234]

How rare this could end up being if those models are right: a November hurricane beginning with the letter "V". None other than 2014!

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized
near an area of low pressure located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and
tropical cyclone formation is likely later this week while the low
drifts toward the west or west-northwest at 5 mph or less.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Berg