Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is producing limited thunderstorm activity over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea about midway between Jamaica and
Honduras. Redevelopment is not expected for the next day or two
while the disturbance interacts with a cold front. After that time,
some slow development could occur while the low drifts southward and
then westward near the coast of northern Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[abajan]

Currently, lots of rain (and occasional thunder) in Barbados. In the southwest of the island it started around 6 o'clock this morning and has been a bit heavy at times. Looks like lots more to come too. In my experience, late October to early November is usually the rainiest time of the year here. Actually, I think most floods we've had here have occurred around this time.

[Macrocane]

Firs cold surge of the season has arrived to northern Central America producing weak to moderate northerly winds in Belize, Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador. The cold front is located north of Honduras. The arrival of the first cold surge marks the beggining of the transition to the dry season in southern Guatemala, central and southern Honduras, El Salvador and central and southern Nicaragua.

[abajan]

A special weather bulletin has been issued by the Barbados Meteorological Services. Below is a copy of the text:

A passing tropical wave interacting with an upper-level low and trough over the eastern Caribbean has been generating some pockets of moderate to heavy showers, periods of rain, thunderstorms and occasional gusty winds across Barbados during the morning.

Analysis is suggesting that these conditions are likely to persist well into the afternoon and into tonight. Residents are therefore advised to remain on
the alert and take all necessary precautions.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea just east of
the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased some during the past several hours, any
redevelopment of this disturbance should be slow to occur while it
moves slowly westward to west-northwestward over the next few days
due to proximity to land and unfavorable upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST SUN OCT 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL LEAN OVER AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TUESDAY
AND DEEPENS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT
PULLS NORTHEAST OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND WEAK GRADIENTS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. LIMITED MOISTURE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE RULE
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A LOW OUT OF
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...AS A HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CROWDS OUT A TROUGH THAT EXTENDED SOUTH OUT OF A LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA...MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THEN A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING 50 WEST WILL CROSS NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CAUSING THE TRADE WINDS TO WEAKEN AGAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE WHILE IT IS
JOINED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THE
FOLLOWING MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW HEAVY SHOWERS DEVELOPED OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL
JUST AFTER NOON IN AND AROUND SABANA GRANDE. THEN STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AND COPIOUS LIGHTNING DEVELOPED
OVER WEST CENTRAL PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MOVED NORTH
TOWARD THE NORTH COAST. ALTHOUGH NO FLOODING WAS REPORTED...STREAM
FLOWS IN THE CULEBRINAS BASIN WERE RISING. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED
TO RISE CONSIDERABLY DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS...BUT...AT THIS
TIME...IS NOT EXPECTED TO FLOOD. IF FLOODING DOES
OCCUR...HOWEVER...IT WILL BE MINOR AND IN THE LOW-LYING AREAS OF
AGUADILLA AND AGUADA. A FEW MODERATE SHOWERS WERE ALSO OBSERVED
PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SAN JUAN AIRPORT. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND...IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY ALSO PASS THROUGH
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE SURROUNDING WATERS.

DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE AREA
BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN A FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN
APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS WILL ALSO SHIFT TO THE EAST AND
THEN NORTHEAST BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE RECORD TYING TEMPERATURES
EXPERIENCED THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO.
MOISTURE FROM THE WAVE WILL ARRIVE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE
TUESDAY AND PEAK MAINLY OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE BETTER MOISTURE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CURRENTLY THE GFS...BUT NOT THE
ECMWF...IS DEVELOPING A WEAK LOW IN THE WAVE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEYOND A MINOR
CIRCULATION. MODERATE MOISTURE THEN CONTINUES IN STRENGTHENING
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJBQ WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS UNTIL 22Z. VCSH AT TJSJ/TJPS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...GENERALLY TRANQUIL SEAS OF 4 FEET OR LESS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN
SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 91 77 89 / 20 20 10 20
STT 77 89 79 90 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is located over the western Caribbean Sea, about 50 miles east
of the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Although shower and thunderstorm
activity has increased some since earlier today, the low is forecast
to move west-southwestward or southwestward over land during the
next day or so, which should inhibit any significant development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[BZSTORM]

Looks like BZ Met agrees with NHC invest 94 - I guess we will know on Monday (just remember the is a gap in the mountains and if invest moves overland but makes the gap it will have less disruption (happened to depression a couple years ago forget the name but it trashed a whole bunch of piers on the South side of Placencia - right now ambient temps are still cool in South coastal areas - cold front effect (might have to bring out the blanket tonight)
NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE
FORECAST DISCUSSION
DATE: SUNDAY 26TH OCTOBER 2014 (EVENING)
MAINLY FAIR, MILD AND DRY WEATHER PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 18Z (NHC) SHOWED A 1008MB LOW (REMNANTS OF TD#9) NEAR THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER, A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1019MB HIGH CENTER OVER THE NW GULF, AND A NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT PASSED OVER E'RN CUBA TO JUST N OF JAMAICA, THEN CONTINUED AS A TROF TO THE W'RN CARIBBEAN LOW. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS JUST EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND ANOTHER ALONG 52W. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL OVER BELIZE, WITH A HIGH CENTER OVER THE SURFACE LOW NEAR E'RN HONDURAS THAT EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE NE OVER HISPANIOLA AND ANOTHER RIDGE TO THE WSW INTO THE E'RN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE MOISTURE IS VERY LOW OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE SOUNDING AND THE MIMIC TPW IMAGES SHOWING PWAT OF 25-30MM.
THE GFS FORECASTS THE GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE NE'WD TO BE EAST OF GEORGIA BY TOMORROW MORNING, THEN MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW THE W'RN CARIBBEAN LOW AND TROF TO DRIFT GENERALLY WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE GFS FORECASTS THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE OVER N'RN HONDURAS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, THEN BRINGS A TROF JUST EAST OF BELIZE TUESDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE/ LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY AIRFLOW IS TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN START TO INCREASE TOMORROW. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE PATTERN IS TO BECOME A BIT DIVERGENT TOMORROW NIGHT AND MORE SO ON TUESDAY. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS TO DRIFT A LITTLE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO LIKELY, SINCE SURFACE NW'LYS WILL PREVAIL TOMORROW NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THE NAM AND NVG GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS ON THE MOVENENT OF THE W'RN CARIBBEAN LOW/ TROF THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALL GO FOR LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL TONIGHT AND LITTLE (0.01-0.10 INS/6HRS) TOMORROW. FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THE MODELS GO FOR RAINFALL OF 0.25-0.50 INS/6HRS MAINLY OVER THE COAST, THEN FOR 0.25-0.75 INS/6HRS OVER CNTRL AND N'RN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY.
FORECAST: MOSTLY CLEAR, COOL AND DRY TONGHT. PARTLY CLOUDY AND MILD TOMORROW WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
OUTLOOK: CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT, THEN MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN DISTRICTS ON TUESDAY.
MARINE: NORTH-NORTHWEST 5-15KTS. CHOPPY. 3-4 FT.
FCSTR: RUDON

[abajan]

14N 52W looks suspicious to me. Seems like some sort of broad circulation forming there:

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
503 AM AST MON OCT 27 2014


SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AND TUESDAY...RE-BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 53W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS
THE SOUTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SAINT CROIX. MINIMAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED WITH THESE SHOWERS. WINDS
WERE MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW EARLY
MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND WINDWARD
AREAS...FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS
LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO. ALSO...THE AFOREMENTIONED EASTERLY
FLOW WILL PROVIDE A RELIEF TO HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTHERN
COASTAL AREAS.

WEAKENING OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN COMBINED WITH A
SERIES OF APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVES WILL RESULT IN A SHARP
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE AREA AS SOON AS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE ARE DEVELOPING A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NOW
LOCATED NEAR 53W...HOWEVER IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEYOND A
MINOR CIRCULATION. ALSO...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO INDICATE
BULK OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH TROPICAL WAVES REMAINING
AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW CONVECTION EXPECTED
EACH MORNING ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS... FOLLOWED BY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BETTER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND UNDER BUILDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND RISING MEAN SEA LEVEL PRESSURES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SECTION OF PR...WHICH MAY AFFECT TJMZ AND THE VICINITY OF TJBQ
BETWEEN 27/18-22Z. THEREFORE...BRIEF MVFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE AT TJMZ
AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE UNTIL 27/13Z...BECOMING MAINLY FROM THE EAST AFT 27/13Z
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH SEAS
BELOW 4 FEET AND WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING
SOMEWHAT. TROPICAL WAVE OR WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THURSDAY WITH TRADE WINDS DIMINISHING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 87 77 / 20 10 20 40
STT 87 77 87 75 / 10 20 30 40

[cycloneye]

14N 52W looks suspicious to me. Seems like some sort of broad circulation forming there:

http://i.imgur.com/oz0oqso.png

Some models develop a weak low pressure from wave but mainly because of the rain it would bring to the islands is why I add it to the watch mode.

[cycloneye]

Happy Birthday to our NE Caribbean friend HurricaneFan and have many more.

[abajan]

Although the weather forecast for today doesn't look particularly alarming, all schools in Barbados have been ordered closed today due to the inclement weather.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 450 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N51W TO 7N54W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI
TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN
49W-56W

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine, is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms
along the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
Although this system is showing signs of development, the low is
forecast to move southwestward inland over Nicaragua later today.
Regardless of development, heavy rains and gusty winds are possible
over portions of northeastern Nicaragua and eastern Honduras during
the day.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
835 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to describe increased organization of low pressure
system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Updated: The small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical
Depression Nine, is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms
along and just east of the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras. This system has continued to become better organized, and
satellite-derived wind data overnight indicates that this system has
tropical-storm-force winds on the west side of the circulation. As a
result, the low is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna, and a
Special Advisory will be issued by 900 am EDT...1300 UTC. Tropical
storm warnings will likely be required for portions of northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Berg

[BZSTORM]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 271233
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
835 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special outlook to describe increased organization of low pressure
system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Updated: The small low pressure system, the remnants of Tropical
Depression Nine, is producing a concentrated area of thunderstorms
along and just east of the coasts of northern Nicaragua and eastern
Honduras. This system has continued to become better organized, and
satellite-derived wind data overnight indicates that this system has
tropical-storm-force winds on the west side of the circulation. As a
result, the low is being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna, and a
Special Advisory will be issued by 900 am EDT...1300 UTC. Tropical
storm warnings will likely be required for portions of northeastern
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...TROPICAL STORM HANNA FORMS JUST OFF OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND SOON AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 83.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA HAVE ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS
NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR LATITUDE 14.5
NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST. HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL LANDFALL
OCCURS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST ONCE HANNA MOVES INLAND...AND IT IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

Deep convection associated with the remnants of Tropical Depression
Nine have persisted and become better organized since yesterday.
In addition, ASCAT data from overnight indicate that the system was
producing 30-35 kt winds to the west of the center, just off of the
coast of Nicaragua. Therefore, advisories have been re-initiated,
with the system being upgraded to Tropical Storm Hanna.

The center of Hanna is very close to the coast of northeastern
Nicaragua. The system is moving west-southwestward, or 250/6 kt,
and should be inland over Nicaragua by this afternoon. A similar
motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the
cyclone dissipating by late Tuesday.

The main hazard associated with Hanna will be very heavy rainfall.
Hanna could produce 10 to 12 inches (250 to 300 mm) of rain, with
isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches (400 mm), across Honduras and
northern Nicaragua. These rains will likely produce flash flooding
and mud slides.

Since Hanna is so close to the coast and about to move inland, this
forecast advisory was sent a couple of hours earlier than usual to
expedite the release of forecast information. An intermediate
advisory will be issued at 2 PM EDT, followed by a full advisory at
5 PM EDT, as scheduled.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 14.5N 83.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 14.0N 83.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1200Z 13.3N 84.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[HurricaneFan]

Is the Wave at 53W forecasted to miss to the north or to the south like the Wave at 60W?