Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Is the Wave at 53W forecasted to miss to the north or to the south like the Wave at 60W?

Models move most of the moisture to the north of the islands but that can change so watch it to see if it brings rain.

[Gustywind]

Strong showers and now tstorms are abatting in my area. Numerous lightnings are making a small show Loud sound now!

[Gustywind]

Things have calm down nown, but strong and brief episode of tstorm for sure. Looks TW number 49 has begun it approach close to guadeloupe.

[Macrocane]

Well, totally unexpected to see Hanna this morning.
I woke up surprised that we had the coolest temperatures since April in northern Central America and a few minutes later there was Hanna too.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HANNA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
1200 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...1200 PM POSITION UPDATE...
...CENTER OF HANNA ALONG THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...

SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 83.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM N OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms from the Lesser
Antilles eastward over the Atlantic Ocean for several hundred miles.
Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur
during the next few days since upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive. After that time, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development while the system moves northwestward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless of development, this
system will produce brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall across the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...20 percent.

[Gustywind]

2 PM TWO:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms from the Lesser
Antilles eastward over the Atlantic Ocean for several hundred miles.
Development, if any, of this disturbance should be slow to occur
during the next few days since upper-level winds are only marginally
conducive. After that time, conditions are expected to become
unfavorable for development while the system moves northwestward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless of development, this
system will produce brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall across the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...20 percent.

Thunderstorms are back, lightnings are increasing near my house and rain is falling nicely. I'm surprised i've always power...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
200 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...HANNA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS SOUTHWARD TO PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED JUST INLAND CLOSE TO THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER NEAR
LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST. HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF HANNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE HANNA MOVES FURTHER INLAND...AND
IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY LATE TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES...ACROSS HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THESE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[cycloneye]

We have now Invest 95L for the wave just east of the Lesser Antilles so let's see what occurs.

AL, 95, 2014102618, , BEST, 0, 140N, 520W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102700, , BEST, 0, 145N, 535W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102706, , BEST, 0, 150N, 546W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102712, , BEST, 0, 155N, 555W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 95, 2014102718, , BEST, 0, 160N, 564W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 200, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014



...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 400 NM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N54W TO 9N54W...MOVING W AT 15 KT. SSMI
TPW AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN
HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT ALONG A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT SUSTAIN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN
50W-60W.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
258 PM AST MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY AND TUESDAY...RE-BUILDING ONCE AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 60W WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH
OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
INTENSE LIGHTING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONGEST ACTIVITY OCCURRED
OVER OROCOVIS...CIALES...AND MOROVIS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE DAYTIME HEATING WITH
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LOCAL EFFECTS. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATED NEAR SUNSET. FOR TONIGHT...A SLOT OF DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO...A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS SOUTH OF THE REGION. NO WEATHER IS EXPECTED ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...WHICH WAS LOCATED FEW
HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST AND WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHICH WILL COMBINED WITH A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE REGION...TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION...WITH LESS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PR
AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJPS WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS UNTIL 22Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
HOWEVER...VCSH AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS POSSIBLE THROUGH 22Z. VCTS AT
TKPK LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD. EAST WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 14 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 87 / 10 20 40 40
STT 77 87 75 87 / 20 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HANNA ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
500 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...HANNA MOVING FARTHER INLAND NEAR THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 83.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA PATUCA HONDURAS EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HANNA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR LATITUDE
14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST. HANNA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST
NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST WHILE HANNA CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER
LAND. HANNA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY TONIGHT
AND THEN DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING.

RAINFALL...HANNA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 10 TO 12 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ACROSS
HONDURAS AND NORTHERN NICARAGUA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
500 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

The surface center of Hanna has been somewhat difficult to locate,
but based on visible satellite imagery, it appears to have moved
inland over extreme northeastern Nicaragua. For now, the intensity
is held at 35 kt to account for the possibility of tropical-storm-
force winds still occurring to the north of the center near the
coast of eastern Honduras.

The initial motion is 260/6 kt. Hanna's center is forecast to turn
west-southwestward and move farther inland over northern Nicaragua
during the next 12 hours, more or less in line with the GFS and
ECMWF solutions. Interaction with more mountainous terrain should
cause the system to weaken quickly, with the surface center
dissipating by Tuesday afternoon.

The main hazard associated with Hanna continues to be very heavy
rainfall. Hanna could produce 10 to 12 inches (250 to 300 mm) of
rain, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches (400 mm), across
Honduras and northern Nicaragua. These rains could produce flash
flooding and mudslides.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 14.6N 83.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 28/0600Z 14.2N 84.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[abajan]

There have been fairly frequent rumbles of distant thunder here for the last 10 minutes or so. Seems to be coming from clouds to our south. We've had rain on and off all day with more expected tonight and into the first half of tomorrow at least. Some areas of the island have experienced flooding but to my knowledge it hasn't been too bad.

[BZSTORM]

Out of curiosity can anyone remember a system like TS Hanna was spawned i.e. depression to remnants to depression to storm and now if GFS run 10 hrs ago to be believed and the action occurring off shore in North quadrant of Hanna, that she will leave a part of system behind as another disturbance to further regenerate into another cyclone, and all in a loop. I know its Oct and this time of year is Central America's hottest cyclone season but this system seems a little freakish to me. I guess by morning we will know if she makes the split or just dissipates completely leaving no remnants behind. Either way I'm not relaxing over this system until I really certain its gone.

[abajan]

Actually, flooding in the northern parishes of Barbados today was worse than I'd thought. Some residents in that area say it's the worst they've seen since the early '80s and others go even further back to 1970. The footage shown on our evening news of streets turned into raging rivers certainly seems to confirm this!

The following PDF contains details about the 1970 flood:
http://cidbimena.desastres.hn/docum/cri ... 07-20a.pdf

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 7A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092014
800 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...HANNA WEAKENS AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND NEAR THE NICARAGUA-
HONDURAS BORDER...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 84.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough continues to
produce a large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms
from the Lesser Antilles eastward over the Atlantic Ocean for
several hundred miles. Development, if any, of this disturbance
should be slow to occur while it moves northwestward to west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days since upper-
level winds are expected to be only marginally conducive. By the
weekend, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
development. Regardless of development, this system will produce
brief periods of gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall across
portions of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track is well inland:

AL, 09, 2014102800, , BEST, 0, 145N, 843W, 30, 1006, TD

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track for 95L:

AL, 95, 2014102800, , BEST, 0, 164N, 575W, 25, 1010, DB

[cycloneye]

00z models for 95L track just north of the islands.