Wind, Wind, Wind...what about Surge??

[galvbay]

I've seen many notes, comments and suggestions about wind from Isabel. My question is...what about the surge? How are the bays, inlets and watersheds going to be affected? Is there a map out there showing the elevations and flood zones? Wind and rain is bad enough...add the surge and you then have a real headache. thanks galvbay

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Not sure. But I heard Dr. Steve Lyons on the weather channel last night say the waves right out ahead of Isabel are 40 feet high! :o

[slosh]

Here is a link for you. The site seems painfully slow, but a lot of good information for you.

http://www.csc.noaa.gov/products/sccoas ... azards.htm

[galvbay]

Thanks for the link! Anyone that is going to be at 'ground zero' when she comes in needs to know their elevation. This is a great link to see how the areas are affected by different storms. galvbay

[Carolina_survivor]

Regarding Surge: Here's what our regional forecast discussion says:


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City North Carolina
245 PM EDT Monday Sep 15 2003


Short term...good subsidence over the region this afternoon with
just some moderate cumulus...dewpoints in the 60s and no activity
on radar. Generally ahead of tropical systems...there is a large
area of strong subsidence and a beautiful day or two. Tuesday looks
to be that day this go around with partly cloudy...dry conditions and maxes
in the lower 80s. On Wednesday...cloudiness increases Ann will go with
only slight chance probability of precipitation as outer fringes of storm reach the area late in
the day.


Extended/Isabel...Isabel appears to have made the more northwest turn this
afternoon. Some shearing also appears to be taking place in the
satpix and the storm may be in a weakening trend. Model tracks are
close to official NHC forecast still showing a landfall over the southern
Outer Banks with a track up the sounds into Virginia. The main change
in the synoptic models does show the system slowing down with more
of an impact later in the day Thursday and into Thursday night. Will
await official NHC conference call and advisories to refine forecast.
Will forecast high chance probability of precipitation Wednesday night with categorical probability of precipitation for Thursday.
Other than wind damage...the main concern with this storm will be
surge flooding along the Neuse and Pamlico sounds and Soundside.
With the current projected path...this surge flooding would be
followed by major overwash on the Outer Banks as Isabel exits.


Marine...will await NHC conference call/TPC grids to refine marine
products and grids. Preliminary thinking 20 to 25 feet as a starting point
on all coastal waters on wave heights Thursday with 5 to 6 feet on the
sounds. This will be tweaked based on 4 PM NHC track. A gradual
decrease starts Thursday night.


Preliminary point temps/pops...


Mhx 68 80 64 77 / 10 10 10 20
ewn 67 81 61 77 / 10 10 10 20
hse 70 77 70 75 / 10 10 10 20
pgv 66 82 59 79 / 10 10 10 20


Mhx...none.

[slosh]

How populated are the areas that could be affected by surge?

[Carolina_survivor]

Some soundside areas are sparsely populated as it is a lot of marshland, but areas like the Outer Banks are full of both residents and tourists. Sound flooding in the northeastern part of the state will affect small towns like Edenton, Belhaven and Washington, as well as those homeowners lucky (?) enough to have waterfront property in these areas.

I guess the mandatory evacuation of the Outer Banks will send a lot of tourists scurrying back home, but there are plenty of them out there this week. As recently as Sunday, you could see load after load of SUV's filled to the max -- surfing equipment secured on top -- racing down the highway toward the Outer Banks.

It's an area that's easily cut off by water, as NC. 12 that goes down the Outer Banks is so narrow between the sound and the ocean. Its a difficult evacuation anyway so I'm glad to hear they're getting people out of harm's way.