Global model runs discussion

[SFLcane]

Its over...

edit: Never really got started actually.

[wxman57]

18Z GFS has given up on any significant "storm" in the Gulf next week. With all the cool, dry air flowing across the Gulf next week it was pure fantasy. I expect no more than a weak swirl on the front in the BoC. It may travel up the front and enhance rainfall along its path, but that's about it.

[WPBWeather]

18Z GFS has given up on any significant "storm" in the Gulf next week. With all the cool, dry air flowing across the Gulf next week it was pure fantasy. I expect no more than a weak swirl on the front in the BoC. It may travel up the front and enhance rainfall along its path, but that's about it.

You generally have a good idea of what lays ahead, which is more than many on the blog. However, many Pro Mets have less successful records in the past few years. Not saying that you may be wrong,but hopefully you are looking at multiple data sources.

[dexterlabio]

In all fairness to our pro-mets (like Alyono, wxman57...) they were expecting something big east of the Caribbean islands (Gonzalo) based on existing favorable conditions, and they didn't just jump on board because the models were showing something. They weren't that sold to the SW Caribbean storm system because even though the models kept on showing development(though not consistent), actual atmospheric condition says otherwise.

[chaser1]

New 0Z Euro still shows low pressure entering the BOC, however by about 168 hr.'s a 1010mb low has migrated to the Western Caribbean. On this run, the low is dropped shortly afterwards. Meanwhile, the 0Z GFS continues to develop a "Campbells Chunky Soup-i-cane" from the BOC, and carries the slop over S. Fla. as a 1003mb low. AND... of course the models will continue to change.

One thing I learned a long time ago was, UNTIL the years' 1st cold front actually sweeps the entire Caribbean, the potential for a W. Caribbean or Gulf storm to form still exists. I've seen occasions where the entire Gulf were as dry as a bone, but in a matter of days the entire ITCZ surged north, with a plume of moisture congealing under a newly developed anticyclone. Will it happen and help develop one more named storm? Maybe, but then again time is working against it. It takes time for the atmosphere to moisten up. Also, October storms usually take time to stew and develop, and by the time any low might develop near Yucatan or the W. Caribbean, there may not be that much time to sit and develop prior to moving NE ahead of the deep trough forecasted to drop south at that time.

[HURRICANELONNY]

As per the morning Miami discussion for 10/17:

a broad low pressure developing along this boundary over the SW Gulf
of Mexico lifting northeastward toward South Florida Wednesday through
Thursday...the European model (ecmwf) indicates the main swath of moisture and the
low developing along the boundary remaining farther south. If the
GFS solution is realized, above averages rainfall chances will
become a possibility. If the European model (ecmwf) solution verifies, much drier
conditions will be possible. Due to these model differences, the
long-range forecast confidence remains low at this time.

&& I'm sure the euro will be the winner

[jlauderdal]

As per the morning Miami discussion for 10/17:

a broad low pressure developing along this boundary over the SW Gulf
of Mexico lifting northeastward toward South Florida Wednesday through
Thursday...the European model (ecmwf) indicates the main swath of moisture and the
low developing along the boundary remaining farther south. If the
GFS solution is realized, above averages rainfall chances will
become a possibility. If the European model (ecmwf) solution verifies, much drier
conditions will be possible. Due to these model differences, the
long-range forecast confidence remains low at this time.

&& I'm sure the euro will be the winner

gfs has been bad but i took a look at the gfs and that scenario makes sense for south florida this time of the year..however, just because it makes sense is hardly a reason for it to occur, we have to yield to euro until further notice

[caneman]

This is one area and for this time of year that GFS has done well. Now, that doesn't mean with its problems this year that it will be correct either. We'll see..

[Hammy]

As per the Euro, it looks like something will try to develop here, but get sucked into a possible monsoonal system and then slingshot into the Gulf.

[TheStormExpert]

Possible Subtropical area of Interest in the NE Atlantic within the next 5-days.

2. A large non-tropical low is expected to form over the far eastern
Atlantic Ocean about midway between the Azores Islands and the
Canary Islands during the next couple of days. This system could
possibly acquire subtropical characteristics by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward over warmer
waters.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[jlauderdal]

a rare tampa hit..ha

[Hurricaneman]

http://i57.tinypic.com/qsjbpw.jpg

a rare tampa hit..ha

the setup is there for such a thing so it can't be ruled out

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[lovingseason2013]

a rare tampa hit..ha

That is Charlotte Harbor and not Tampa Bay by the way

[asd123]

ECMWF shows what I think is a disorganized mess of heavy rain and wind:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... seus_8.png 850 mb wind around 65 mph (central Florida panhandle) and on Wunderground ECMWF wundermap shows heavy rain for next Saturday for much of Florida

[jlauderdal]

a rare tampa hit..ha

That is Charlotte Harbor and not Tampa Bay by the way

thanks...im all for getting it correct

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Hurricane landfall SW Florida/Ft Myers... 240 Hours...

[asd123]

Strong tropical storm coming for Florida next week:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_33.png

[Hurricaneman]

Strong tropical storm coming for Florida next week:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_33.png

system is being discussed in the 93L models thread

[cycloneye]

I am reposting this from the TD Nine models thread.

I would want to see GFS.GEM,NAVIGEM,HWRF,UKMET and yes ECMWF too to have big upgrades and have trustworthy global models in the near future.I am dreaming right?

[Hammy]

Euro is developing another storm in about nine days on the end of a frontal boundary.