ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms a couple of hundred miles
east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Since
upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive, some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible while it moves
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
couple of days. Afterwards, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

[Gustywind]

Mentionned as a special feature...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
18N60W. THE LOW IS MOVING NW AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 56W-61W.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[ozonepete]

This isn't going to hit any land. But as for its future its chances look good to be a pretty significant TC. Will be fun to watch as it powerhouses up and goes harmlessly northeastward. Don't really understand why the NHC doesn't say that once it turns northeastward it has a really good chance of intensifying.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure extending from near the northern Leeward
Islands northeastward over the Atlantic for a few hundred miles is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Upper-level winds are currently marginally conducive, and some
development of this disturbance is possible during the next day or
so while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. After that time, conditions are forecast to become unfavorable
for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1010 MB LOW BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS NE OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N61W. THE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT THAT ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW
ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION E
OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 58W-61W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 54W-61W.
DUE TO MARGINAL CONDUCIVE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE WHILE IT MOVES W-NW
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCES
THROUGH 48 HOURS REMAIN MEDIUM. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure has formed just north of the Leeward
Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds are particularly
conducive, some development of this disturbance is possible during
the next day or so while it moves west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. After that time, conditions are
forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation
while the system turns northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Brown

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 1010 MB IS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 22N60W IN THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE LOW TO NEAR 15N64 IN THE E CARIBBEAN. AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH AND
LOW. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WITH A VERY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE AND ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N TO 23N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE
SW OF THE LOW...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT VERY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10
KT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION CHANCES THROUGH 48 HOURS REMAIN
MEDIUM. SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track text:

At 1800 UTC, 29 October 2014, LOW INVEST (AL95) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 19.3°N and 63.1°W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 290 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

[msbee]

very heavy rain here right now.. nothing we can't handle I don't think

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just to the
northeast of the Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers
and thunderstorms mainly to the northeast and north of the Leeward
Islands. Upper-level winds are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns
toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2014103000, , BEST, 0, 192N, 636W, 30, 1009, LO

[abajan]

very heavy rain here right now.. nothing we can't handle I don't think

I think Gustywind got lots of rain today too. At least that's what our weatherman on the evening news said. (3 inches of rain.)

[lordkev]

I don't understand how, but we seemed to miss out on most of the rain again. Had barely a drop except early this morning. It's almost as if the storms part in the middle as they pass over us.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A westward-moving area of low pressure, located just north of the
Virgin Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the northeast and north of the center. Upper-level winds
are expected to remain unfavorable for tropical cyclone development
while the system turns toward the northwest and north over the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The area of low pressure just north of the Virgin Islands has
become less organized. Upper-level winds are expected to remain
unfavorable for tropical cyclone development while the system turns
toward the northwest and north over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2014103018, , BEST, 0, 208N, 647W, 25, 1008, LO

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection is building essentially right next to the LLC, which has become better defined over the past few hours. Yes, it is highly sheared, but I am confused.