WPAC: INVEST 97W

[euro6208]

97W INVEST 141101 0600 14.0N 148.0E WPAC 15 1010

East of the Marianas...

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000
WWMY80 PGUM 010947
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
747 PM CHST SAT NOV 1 2014

GUZ001>004-021000-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
747 PM CHST SAT NOV 1 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR
14N148E...OR ABOUT 170 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN...HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY FOR TINIAN AND
SAIPAN THROUGH MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AT SAIPAN AND TINIAN SUNDAY
AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD. COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS OF
NOW BUT COULD BE IF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY
AS THE CIRCULATION PASSES NEAR SAIPAN AND TINIAN WITH SPEEDS OF 10
TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND LISTEN FOR ANY STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL HOMELAND SECURITY OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICE.

$$

WILLIAMS

[euro6208]

very interesting 06z...gfs back to developing a microsmall tropical cyclone over the marianas that drifts south slowly...

enlarged to show more detail...

[euro6208]

a very wet pattern for the marianas over the next few days as this system remains stationary and disorganized due to outflow from nuri but will organize as nuri heads further north...

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000
WWMY80 PGUM 020947
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
747 PM CHST SUN NOV 2 2014

GUZ001>004-031000-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
747 PM CHST SUN NOV 2 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE FOR THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR
15N147E...OR ABOUT 85 MILES EAST OF SAIPAN...HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE MARIANAS THROUGH TUESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AT SAIPAN AND TINIAN TONIGHT
AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SLOWLY MOVES WESTWARD. COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE.

WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS OF
NOW BUT COULD BE IF THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA WHILE WINDS AT TINIAN AND SAIPAN WILL BE
VARIABLE AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES WESTWARD. EXPECT WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS
AND LISTEN FOR ANY STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL HOMELAND SECURITY OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICE.

$$

WILLIAMS

[mrbagyo]

NRL renamed this into 98W

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NWS GUAM

THE ODD LITTLE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE MARIANAS
CONTINUES TO BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO TINIAN AND
SAIPAN...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO GUAM AND ROTA. THE WEAK SURFACE
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE IS NOW WEST OF SAIPAN
AND TINIAN...AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. DEVELOPMENT LOOKS UNLIKELY
IN VIEW OF THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM NURI.

MODELS ARE NOT MUCH HELP ON THE FUTURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...COMING
UP WITH DIFFERENT IDEAS ON ITS FUTURE WITH EACH MODEL RUN. HAVE
STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR WINDS AND WEATHER
BUT DID INCREASE SHOWER COVERAGE FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND THREW
IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS. LEFT WINDS ALONE FOR NOW...AS THEY
ARE MAINLY LIGHT...AND HAVE NO ASSURANCE THAT LATEST MODELS ARE
ANY IMPROVEMENT OVER CURRENT GRIDS. AFTER MIDWEEK...EAST WINDS
SHOULD RETURN ALONG WITH A DRIER WEATHER REGIME.

[euro6208]

000
WWMY80 PGUM 030951
SPSMY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
751 PM CHST MON NOV 3 2014

GUZ001>004-041000-
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-
751 PM CHST MON NOV 3 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES FOR THE MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED ABOUT 60 MILES WEST OF SAIPAN NEAR
15N145E WILL CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SAIPAN AND TINIAN AREAS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT
AT SAIPAN...TINIAN AND POSSIBLY ROTA AS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
MOVES SLOWLY WEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
LIKELY BEFORE THE SHOWERS BECOME SCATTERED ON TUESDAY AND BACK TO
ISOLATED BY WEDNESDAY.

WINDS ARE NOT A MAJOR THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...BACKING TO
SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 MPH NEAR SHOWERS.

RESIDENTS OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECASTS AND LISTEN
FOR ANY STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND
YOUR LOCAL HOMELAND SECURITY OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE.

$$

SIMPSON

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models have back off in developing this...

[cycloneye]

Invest has been deactivated.