EPAC: INVEST 94E

[cycloneye]

Not much chance to develop for this invest.

EP, 94, 2014103100, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1197W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014103106, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1202W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014103112, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1208W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014103118, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1217W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 94, 2014110100, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1227W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
EP, 94, 2014110106, , BEST, 0, 116N, 1235W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0,
EP, 94, 2014110112, , BEST, 0, 117N, 1240W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0,

An area of low pressure located about 1200 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a few
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although upper-level winds
are forecast to be generally favorable for the next day or so, dry
air in the vicinity of the system should limit significant
development while it moves toward the west or west-southwest at 5 to
10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low..10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942014 11/01/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 19 20 20 19 19 18 17 18 21 24
V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 19 20 20 19 19 18 17 18 21 24
V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 9 11 14 23 21 22 18 16 18 22
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -7 -6 -5 -1 0 0 2 1 -2 1 -1
SHEAR DIR 278 299 305 280 285 297 294 280 279 294 323 352 5
SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 144 144 143 144 146 146 146 145 145 145
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.1
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 53 51 51 51 51 46 44 44 43 41 42 40 39
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 6
850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 28 38 36 32 47 42 26 8 2 -4 4
200 MB DIV -14 -14 -1 -6 -20 8 -16 -11 4 8 6 -19 -11
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 2 2 1 0
LAND (KM) 1908 1957 2007 2055 2104 2190 2270 2360 2478 2490 2326 2159 1996
LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.8 11.9 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.9 12.2 12.6 12.9
LONG(DEG W) 124.0 124.7 125.4 126.1 126.8 128.0 129.0 130.0 131.4 132.9 134.4 135.9 137.4
STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 12 13 14 14 12 10 10 12 11 11 10 7 7

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1250 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
upper-level winds are forecast to be generally favorable for the
next day or so, dry air in the vicinity of the system should limit
significant development while it moves toward the west or west-
southwest at about 10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

An area of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Increasing upper-level
winds and dry air are expected to inhibit significant development of
this system while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10
mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[galaxy401]

20% in 5 days now.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1350 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula have increased somewhat since yesterday.
This activity remains disorganized, however, and strong upper-level
winds and dry air are expected to inhibit significant development of
this system while it moves westward to west-southwestward at 5 to 10
mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.