WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
RL3AO
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 16308
Joined: Thu Jun 14, 2007 10:03 pm
Location: NC

#81 Postby RL3AO » Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:46 pm

Convection is very deep. This has T7.5 potential.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3711
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:
Contact mrbagyo

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#82 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:53 pm

RL3AO wrote:Convection is very deep. This has T7.5 potential.


totally agree.

Trivia: the last time "PAENG" was used by PAGASA was in 2006 and that was Super Typhoon Cimaron which made landfall in Luzon as a Category 5 (hmmm. it's not retired). 2010 was an underwhelming year( we didn't reach "P")
Last edited by mrbagyo on Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3857
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

#83 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Nov 01, 2014 8:57 pm

Woah. Check this out.

Image
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#84 Postby cycloneye » Sat Nov 01, 2014 9:34 pm

0300z JTWC warning peaks at 135kts.

Image
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#85 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Nov 01, 2014 10:46 pm

TXPQ24 KNES 020317
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NURI)

B. 02/0232Z

C. 15.8N

D. 132.8E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS RESULTED
IN A MET OF 5.0 AND A PT OF 5.5. DG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN...AND SURROUNDED
BY...CMG WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 7.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. THE AVERAGE DT CALCULATED EACH HOUR FOR THE LAST SIX HOURS
ENDING AT 0232Z WAS 6.5. THIS IS THE BASIS FOR THE FT AND JUSTIFIES
BREAKING ALL CONSTRAINTS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

01/2243Z 15.4N 132.8E SSMIS


...TURK
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
TropicalAnalystwx13
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2109
Age: 27
Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2011 8:20 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC
Contact:
Contact TropicalAnalystwx13

#86 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Sat Nov 01, 2014 11:40 pm

Nuri is likely approaching Category 5 status, with a warm eye surrounded by extremely cold convection.

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#87 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:32 am

Wow at that massive circulation with a small eye.

This looks way stronger than 95 knots.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#88 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 12:37 am

Raw up to 7.4!
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
mrbagyo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3711
Age: 32
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
Location: 14.13N 120.98E
Contact:
Contact mrbagyo

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#89 Postby mrbagyo » Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:34 am

20W NURI 141102 0600 16.2N 132.7E WPAC 120 933

:uarrow: conservative. haha
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3857
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

#90 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 1:59 am

This should be already or near super typhoon status if this is the Dvorak estimate:

2014NOV02 053200 6.6 930.5 129.6 6.6 6.6 7.3 1.7T/6hr OFF OFF -7.97 -80.10 EYE 13 IR 60.1 16.37 -132.68 COMBO MTSAT2 23.8
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#91 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:15 am

mrbagyo wrote:20W NURI 141102 0600 16.2N 132.7E WPAC 120 933

:uarrow: conservative. haha


Likely due to constraints and a blend of dvorak numbers of 6.0 and 6.5. JT should of went with ADT. At least a cat 5 now and still intensifying.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3857
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#92 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:17 am

euro6208 wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:20W NURI 141102 0600 16.2N 132.7E WPAC 120 933

:uarrow: conservative. haha


Likely due to constraints and a blend of dvorak numbers of 6.0 and 6.5. JT should of went with ADT. At least a cat 5 now and still intensifying.

Probs 150-170 kts due to intense convection as CDG perfectly surrounds the well-defined symmetrical eye.
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#93 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 2:21 am

Image

Image

The west pacific never fails to impress.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3466
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#94 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:55 am

This is how Western Pacific typhoons do it in November. 8-)
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#95 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:28 am

truly incredible...

2014NOV02 111400 7.5 903.5 155.0 7.5 7.6 7.8 2.7T/12hr OFF OFF 9.76 -83.42 EYE 15 IR N/A 17.15 -132.52 COMBO MTSAT2 24.7

ADT at 155 knots and raw up to 7.8 ( 164 knots )! :eek:

Eye very warm at +9.8 C and cloud tops -83.4!
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 143858
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#96 Postby cycloneye » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:50 am

12z Best Track up to 130kts.

20W NURI 141102 1200 17.2N 132.5E WPAC 130 926
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3857
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

#97 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 7:58 am

TY 1420 (NURI)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 2 November 2014

<Analyses at 02/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N17°10'(17.2°)
E132°30'(132.5°)
Direction and speed of movement N 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more SE500km(270NM)
NW330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 03/12 UTC>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N19°35'(19.6°)
E133°35'(133.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area ALL300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 04/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N22°30'(22.5°)
E136°00'(136.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL430km(230NM)

<Forecast for 05/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°25'(25.4°)
E136°55'(136.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 940hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#98 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:01 am

eye temperature warmer now +10C and embedded in a perfect circular cdo...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
User avatar
xtyphooncyclonex
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3857
Age: 23
Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
Location: Cebu City
Contact:
Contact xtyphooncyclonex

#99 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:15 am

Beautiful.

Image
0 likes   
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Top
User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: WPAC: NURI - Typhoon

#100 Postby euro6208 » Sun Nov 02, 2014 8:49 am

ADT up to 7.6 (158 knots) from 7.5 while RAW remains at 7.8 (164 knots)...

Eye temperature has dramtically warmed from +10C to +13.1C while cloud tops have slightly warmed from -83.2C to -82.7C...
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2014”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests