WPAC: NURI - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

Just wow.

T7.0/7.0/D3.5/24HRS

A remarkable storm that could be at a T7.5 (higher?) later today.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 155 kt with that image. Amazing storm that just exploded today.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC Latest Warning has the peak at 145 kts. I think it could be more than that.

WTPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI) WARNING NR 011
UPGRADED FROM TYPHOON 20W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 17.2N 132.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 132.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 18.7N 132.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 20.2N 133.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.8N 134.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 23.7N 135.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 28.9N 139.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.5N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 41.9N 157.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
021500Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 132.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON 20W (NURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 566 NM NORTHWEST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 022100Z, 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

So, who's stronger (for year 2014)? Nuri or Vongfong?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Nuri looks much stronger than Vongfong. Nuri has deeper convection, but we need the eye to warm more.

[euro6208]

Saw that BT making Nuri a Super typhoon and was hoping JT would reamend it and increase the intensity alot more...but latest warning still says 130 knots...really?

this is stronger than that...wish recon would return as these kind of systems develop here every year in the wpac and i bet vast majority of tropical meteorologists despair like I do at lack of Wpac aerial recon & goldmine of potential data untapped...

[euro6208]

JTWC Latest Warning has the peak at 145 kts. I think it could be more than that.

As usual in explosive deepening, jtwc is behind in intensity...dvorak always behind real time recon data in systems this strong...i just can't believe how recon just suddenly ended over here in 1987...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC Latest Warning has the peak at 145 kts. I think it could be more than that.

As usual in explosive deepening, jtwc is behind in intensity...dvorak always behind real time recon data in systems this strong...

Looks 160 knots to me. Agree?

Nuri's perfectly deep convection reminds me of Haiyan before peaking.

[euro6208]

[supercane4867]

Just woke up and saw this...WTF

[CrazyC83]

That is a close one. Nuri probably stronger.

[CrazyC83]

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm



Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 NOV 2014 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 17:27:29 N Lon : 132:20:24 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 909.7mb/149.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.5 7.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +12.6C Cloud Region Temp : -83.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 122km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.1 degrees

[supercane4867]

TXPQ24 KNES 021503
TCSWNP

A. 20W (NURI)

B. 02/1432Z

C. 17.5N

D. 132.4E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T7.5/7.5/D3.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG AND SURROUNDED BY CDG FOR DT=7.5.
SIX HOUR AVERAGE DT=7.5. MET=5.5 WITH PT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...SALEMI

[SouthDadeFish]

Just wow:



Incredible. Hard to beat this one folks. With such a small eye, I really question if satellite estimates are able to accurately estimate the warmth of the eye.

[SouthDadeFish]

Again, all I can say is wow:

[RL3AO]

WMG EYE EMBEDDED IN CMG AND SURROUNDED BY CDG FOR DT=7.5

How do they get embedded in CMG? Is this just the trick to use to not go with a T8.0 yet (which is understandable)?

[SouthDadeFish]

Just as impressive on the large scale:



Look at the banding and outflow. Incredible.

[mrbagyo]

Just wow:



Incredible. Hard to beat this one folks. With such a small eye, I really question if satellite estimates are able to accurately estimate the warmth of the eye.

that's also been circulating in my mind ...
very small eye can't accommodate a lot of pixels.

[RL3AO]

Just wow:

[imghttp://i.imgur.com/Q4cX9SV.jpg[/img]

Incredible. Hard to beat this one folks. With such a small eye, I really question if satellite estimates are able to accurately estimate the warmth of the eye.

that's also been circulating in my mind ...
very small eye can't accommodate a lot of pixels.

Yes eye temp can be difficult for satellites because its viewing the storm from above the equator. In fact from the CIMSS ADT we know what the angle is.


Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.1 degrees

[mrbagyo]

Yes eye temp can be difficult for satellites because its viewing the storm from above the equator. In fact from the CIMSS ADT we know what the angle is.


Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.1 degrees

Its very likely that were just seeing the temp of the outer fringes of the eye not the very center of the eye(obstructed by the southern eyewall).
Damn we need a Global Hawk.