Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

Met Office to build £97m supercomputer

Let's see how this new tool improves more than they are doing now the ECMWF and UKMET.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29789208

[gatorcane]

Euro is developing another storm in about nine days on the end of a frontal boundary.

Here is the 240 hour frame with the system heading towards the NW with a large ridge over the NE United States building in. Strange setup for November. Not much to see on the GFS except I do see it showing a large area of disturbed weather retrograding west from the tail end of the front. Let's see if future Euro runs continue with this:

[gatorcane]

Met Office to build £97m supercomputer

Let's see how this new tool improves more than they are doing now the ECMWF and UKMET.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-29789208

Wow looks like a very impressive supercomputer. That is great the UK is investing so much in computer weather forecasting models. Does anybody know what the plans are for this country to upgrade their systems - namely the GFS model?

Also, are we going to have access to this model's output like we have for the UKMET or is it going to be more like the ECMWF where data is proprietary?

[blp]

The year of the trough. Updated graphic. Amazing how stuck the pattern has been. Bermuda surely wants to see this end I would think.

[cycloneye]

Also, are we going to have access to this model's output like we have for the UKMET or is it going to be more like the ECMWF where data is proprietary?

gatorcane,I am sure that as time goes by before the September 2015 upgrade there will be more details about what you are asking.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro is developing another storm in about nine days on the end of a frontal boundary.

12z Euro no longer develops it due to strong EC trough, unlike 00z where there was strong ridging instead.

[SFLcane]

Its been the year of the trof for a few seasons now. New prime zone for development 30n in the Atlantic.

[gatorcane]

Global models seem to be advertising the possibility of some kind of weak low / area of disturbed weather that forms from the tail end of an anomalously strong cold front (same front that is causing the below normal temperatures this weekend over the Eastern United States) just a little north of Puerto Rico and retrogrades back west starting around 5-6 days from now. I included the 00Z ECMWF 168 hour image below as an example

None of them are showing development in the 00Z runs, but curious what ends up happening to this feature. Given it's late in the season out there for getting development, I am not expecting anything significant to come of this, but something to keep an eye on as that is the only thing I can see looking at the models that has the slightest chance of tropical development through the next 10 days.

[AJC3]

Global models seem to be advertising the possibility of some kind of weak low / area of disturbed weather that forms from the tail end of an anomalously strong cold front (same front that is causing the below normal temperatures this weekend over the Eastern United States) just a little north of Puerto Rico and retrogrades back west starting around 5-6 days from now. I included the 00Z ECMWF 168 hour image below as an example

None of them are showing development in the 00Z runs, but curious what ends up happening to this feature. Given it's late in the season out there for getting development, I am not expecting anything significant to come of this, but something to keep an eye on as that is the only thing I can see looking at the models that has the slightest chance of tropical development through the next 10 days.

The 12Z/18Z global guidance is pointing to the base of the 500MB trough pinching off in the western Atlantic somewhere near 25N 70W in about 4.5 days, then continuing to drop southwestward for another day or two and then slowly westward as it gets trapped beneath a building ridge to the north. To me this is a pretty strong signal, and suggests unsettled weather (storms, heavy rain) for the DR/PR area next week, with the (baroclinic) development or enhancement of an inverted surface trough (the stalled frontal boundary) in that area.

[blp]

Thanks for posting.

[blp]

Levi Cowan now posting Parallel GFS runs on his site. I did not know they were going to upgrade the GFS. That is great news.

A limited selection of Parallel GFS products are available in real-time until the GFS gets officially upgraded in December.

[Yellow Evan]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... er-behind/

Very long but interesting read. It's been one run, but I wasn't too impressed by the new parallel GFS. It seemed a bit conservative. I know the GFS took a lot of heat in 2012, but honestly, that year, from my observation, was the best the GFS has ever preformed.

I know nothing about the KMA and I'm not a fan of the UKMET, two other models the article mentions.

[tolakram]

The problem won't be fixed by throwing more hardware at it, in my opinion.

[Alyono]

the problem will be fixed if MU goes to a 21st century data assimilation scheme. Even the Canadian model uses 4DVAR, yet MU insists on sticking with a 3DVAR hybrid

[Yellow Evan]

Since I thought this comment was rather interesting, I will re-post it here (fee free to delete if deemed inappropriate).

It turns out that NOAA made a very bad decision in their computer acquisitions. They committed themselves for an extended period to buy only from IBM, thus losing the ability to shop around for the best deal during each replacement cycle. And now IBM is planning to sell its server business to Lenovo, a Chinese company, and this is setting off all sorts of warning bells in the U.S. government, and specifically for the new weather computer acquisition. If NOAA was not stuck with IBM they could go with other vendors, like CRAY, which sells U.S. machines that have no security issues (in fact, the European Center liked them so much they bought one!).

Doing some more browsing, here are some graphics.

[somethingfunny]

Anything new on the horizon? I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more subtropical style popups

[floridasun78]

Anything new on the horizon? I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more subtropical style popups

here Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST MON NOV 3 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to form to the north of
Hispaniola around the middle of the week. This system could
acquire subtropical characteristics before it moves northward and
northeastward and weakens or merges with a frontal system toward the
end of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

New upgrade to GFS on December 17 at 12z

Let's see if this new upgrade eliminates the ghost storms.



Effective on or about December 17, 2014, beginning with the 1200

Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the National Centers for

Environmental Prediction (NCEP) will upgrade the GFS Analysis and

Forecast System which includes:



- Changing model components

- Increasing horizontal resolution

- Adding 0.25 degree gridded output

- Adding new product fields

- Changing product naming convention

- Changing product timeliness

- Generating downstream model impacts

More at link below:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin14-46gfs.htm

[Alyono]

this couldnt come soon enough. It is indicating another MU special in the Caribbean

[TheStormExpert]

this couldnt come soon enough. It is indicating another MU special in the Caribbean

Someone needs to inform "MU" that the season has been over for several weeks now, despite it only being November 12th!