EPAC: INVEST 95E

[cycloneye]

Not a bright future for this invest.

EP, 95, 2014110212, , BEST, 0, 88N, 936W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2014110218, , BEST, 0, 91N, 953W, 30, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2014110300, , BEST, 0, 95N, 971W, 35, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2014110306, , BEST, 0, 98N, 990W, 35, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0,
EP, 95, 2014110312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1009W, 35, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 70, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0,

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are associated with a broad area of
low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for some gradual development of this system
during the next day or two while it moves west-northwestward or
northwestward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less
favorable on Wednesday and development after that time is not
likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Yellow Evan]

At this point, I think we need MJO/CCKW to get a storm. The EPAC can't hold its own at this point in November.

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP952014 11/03/14 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 45 51 56 57 53 44 34 26 21
V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 45 51 56 47 33 29 26 18 DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 38 40 46 54 51 34 29 30 27 25
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 12 10 3 2 4 12 20 43 60 56 48 41
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 4 9 8 5 8 5 1 5 1
SHEAR DIR 320 335 19 8 51 165 204 213 245 252 263 267 277
SST (C) 28.6 29.0 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.7 28.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 27.8
POT. INT. (KT) 153 157 160 162 160 158 158 164 156 146 145 148 144
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -52.3 -52.8
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 7 7 7 1 1 0 0 0
700-500 MB RH 68 71 76 77 74 68 57 51 52 61 61 56 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -82 -59 -16 9 19 16 12 14 4 -17 -29 -20 -26
200 MB DIV 3 47 51 49 57 62 58 16 -10 4 -28 -10 -6
700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 1 2 0 -2 4 0 -14 -22 -23 0
LAND (KM) 734 716 698 631 557 399 221 -63 -309 -163 122 394 342
LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.8 11.5 12.5 13.5 15.3 17.3 19.9 22.5 24.1 24.1 23.8 24.1
LONG(DEG W) 100.9 102.2 103.5 104.3 105.1 105.4 105.4 104.6 102.5 99.4 96.6 93.9 90.7
STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 13 10 10 12 15 16 14 12 14 15
HEAT CONTENT 2 7 18 24 35 36 30 37 0 0 19 15 22

[cycloneye]

Is this some leftover of once TS Hanna?

[Yellow Evan]

Is this some leftover of once TS Hanna?

Perhaps.