Texas Fall-2014

[TexasStorm]

Not saying we will not get an arctic blast, saying if the models are anything like last year they are supercharging the temps. Think those temps will moderate the closer we get to said event.

[Ralph's Weather]

WOW just WOW look at JMA 850 mb temps for next week. Truly severe arctic air mass. 850 mb temps forecasted around -22 degrees for Wisconsin.


Not saying we will not get an artic blast, saying if the models are anything like last year they are supercharging the temps. Think those temps will moderate the closer we get to said event.

I am far from a model expert, but I feel like the cold will be more predictable than last year as the cold will be driven by -AO so it will be deeper than -EPO driven cold.

[Portastorm]

Not saying we will not get an arctic blast, saying if the models are anything like last year they are supercharging the temps. Think those temps will moderate the closer we get to said event.

I'm not saying for certain we'll see an Arctic blast mid month or beyond ... but what I will say is that we're seeing amazing agreement right now between the GFS and Euro ensembles on an extraordinary set up for that period. If it comes to fruition, it will be cold and stormy in Texas the likes of what we haven't seen in decades (for that time of year). But yes there is still a long way to go and I think super typhoon Nuri is going to wreak havoc with the medium-range models. Something to keep an eye on though.

[TheProfessor]

Not saying we will not get an arctic blast, saying if the models are anything like last year they are supercharging the temps. Think those temps will moderate the closer we get to said event.

If I remember correctly there were many times when the Models under did the cold last year, a couple of examples being the Ice storm in North Texas and the snow event that had a 20-1 ratio as well.

[TheProfessor]

it looks like this band is training over me, I hope it continues!

[Ntxw]

WOW just WOW look at JMA 850 mb temps for next week. Truly severe arctic air mass. 850 mb temps forecasted around -22 degrees for Wisconsin.


Not saying we will not get an artic blast, saying if the models are anything like last year they are supercharging the temps. Think those temps will moderate the closer we get to said event.

I am far from a model expert, but I feel like the cold will be more predictable than last year as the cold will be driven by -AO so it will be deeper than -EPO driven cold.

This is very good advice, thumbs up. This year's cold air masses will be deep and the models will have a much better handle than the shallow air masses compared to last year. In additions as predicted for months, height anomalies in Texas are low. These lower heights make it very difficult for moderation. They are low because air aloft is much colder than previous years. The -AO in October set the stage.

[Ralph's Weather]

The depth of the cold is what I am the most excited about for this winter. As we get later into the winter and build the snowpack further south the modification will be even less. Add in the sub-tropical jet and some -NAO and we will not see many warm days until spring.

[Ntxw]

Not saying we will not get an arctic blast, saying if the models are anything like last year they are supercharging the temps. Think those temps will moderate the closer we get to said event.

I'm not saying for certain we'll see an Arctic blast mid month or beyond ... but what I will say is that we're seeing amazing agreement right now between the GFS and Euro ensembles on an extraordinary set up for that period. If it comes to fruition, it will be cold and stormy in Texas the likes of what we haven't seen in decades (for that time of year). But yes there is still a long way to go and I think super typhoon Nuri is going to wreak havoc with the medium-range models. Something to keep an eye on though.

CFSV2 and both GFS/Euro ensembles are quite severe given their time range. It locks in the pattern and it comes steam rolling one after another. It is a combination of both -EPO/-AO in the 2-3 sigma range

[aggiecutter]

Not saying we will not get an arctic blast, saying if the models are anything like last year they are supercharging the temps. Think those temps will moderate the closer we get to said event.

I'm not saying for certain we'll see an Arctic blast mid month or beyond ... but what I will say is that we're seeing amazing agreement right now between the GFS and Euro ensembles on an extraordinary set up for that period. If it comes to fruition, it will be cold and stormy in Texas the likes of what we haven't seen in decades (for that time of year). But yes there is still a long way to go and I think super typhoon Nuri is going to wreak havoc with the medium-range models. Something to keep an eye on though.

On November 13th, 1976, Texarkana received its earliest measurable snowfall on record of 1". November of 76 through Mid- January of 77 was brutally cold, albeit fairly dry.

[srainhoutx]

The Euro ensemble mean is very chilly next week. That pattern look stable and with the ensembles in agreement, the chances of a strong Fall front gains momentum regarding the sensible weather we could see. Stepping down...

[Ralph's Weather]

Looking over the records for November in Tyler I see that the low was 70 on 11/29/1975 and 10 on 11/29/1976. For the time period we are talking about for the upcoming Arctic blast we need low 20s to break records. One more interesting thing about the records is that record rainfall for many Nov days is right around 2". If the majority of this batch of rain comes here after midnight we could break tomorrow's record of 2.35" set in 1942.

[Portastorm]

Not saying we will not get an arctic blast, saying if the models are anything like last year they are supercharging the temps. Think those temps will moderate the closer we get to said event.

I'm not saying for certain we'll see an Arctic blast mid month or beyond ... but what I will say is that we're seeing amazing agreement right now between the GFS and Euro ensembles on an extraordinary set up for that period. If it comes to fruition, it will be cold and stormy in Texas the likes of what we haven't seen in decades (for that time of year). But yes there is still a long way to go and I think super typhoon Nuri is going to wreak havoc with the medium-range models. Something to keep an eye on though.

On November 13th, 1976, Texarkana received its earliest measurable snowfall on record of 1". November of 76 through Mid- January of 77 was brutally cold, albeit fairly dry.

November 1976 has been showing up the last few days as a very close analog match to what we're seeing now in the guidance.

[Ntxw]

It is the top dog analog for the next two weeks. Not just the top one but shows up several times, 1976. You just have to give pause when you see 1976, 1977, 1978, and 1983 in any kind of analog set.

[aggiecutter]

November of 1976 was also the same year as the big snowfall at the Texas-TCU game in Ft.Worth.


November 13-14, 1976 Widespread 4-6 inch snow fell over much of the northern and western sections of North Texas. The area covered was north of a line through Coleman, Hamilton, Fort Worth, Bonham, and Clarksville. Lampasas also reported 5 inches of snow with this event.

[weatherdude1108]

Almost 0.2 (two tenths) from this event!!! I'm just being a dork. It is early.

[Ralph's Weather]

It is the top dog analog for the next two weeks. Not just the top one but shows up several times, 1976. You just have to give pause when you see 1976, 1977, 1978, and 1983 in any kind of analog set.

Things are sure setting up for an ideal scenario cold.

[Ntxw]

It is the top dog analog for the next two weeks. Not just the top one but shows up several times, 1976. You just have to give pause when you see 1976, 1977, 1978, and 1983 in any kind of analog set.

Things are sure setting up for an ideal scenario cold.

Indeed, the implications back in October were pretty important so this started well before recently. Not so much the snow extent but the SAI snow advance index (et al Judah Cohen) being second only to 1976 itself. So it's not like the models just decided to latch it's been working for awhile.

[Ntxw]

For those who didn't follow the winter thread, this is a discussion I had with teamplayersblue on the index. Worked out pretty well.

Question for an expert.... JB posted a pic in comparison to 2007 of how fast the snowcover has advanced in Siberia compared to normal..... Woah. Could this early, rapid snowcover be the reason why we are in a warming trend right now? Could the large amount of cold snow packed air be messing with the jet stream which (for now) leads to a warm Oct for us? Im starting to think it has something to do with it. With massive cold pool over Siberia, and the way the dynamics play out right now, i think its causing the US to have almost an Omega block over the lower 48. Not seeing the huge drop in the EPO yet for some reason.

I expect this to change as winter approaches though. Or in mid November. It just seems like this rapid snowpack development is messing with the upper level air over us somehow, just not sure how to connect the dots. Thanks guys. Im a heavy thinker so i have racked my brain on this one.

This is a very complex question. Dr. Judah Cohen's paper of the SAI (snow advance index) sets the notion that quick growth of snow cover across Eurasia (in October not the other months) has high correlation with ensuing winter -AO. The snow strengthens the Siberian high pressure (freezer of the Northern Hemisphere) which provides a heat flux into the stratosphere. And when you warm the stratosphere suddenly it is known as sudden stratospheric warming or SSW event. This promotes -AO which dislodges low heights, big storms, and cold air to the mid latitudes. Except though when you're building snow in Eurasia you're usually milder on the other side in NA (seesaw). The stratosphere vortex is setting up shop now and with the snow advance we're going to beat it down next month. I'm very confident of the -AO coming this winter, possibly one of the strongest years.

The low level cold air isn't there yet like it was last year as the EPO has been swaying back and forth and really not a player at this time as you've mentioned. When it gets cold this year it will not be the same overall as last year with big high pressure domes. We'll get cold from deep low pressure systems drawing cold air behind them and cutoff lows bringing their cold air from low heights. More akin to 2009-2010 type cold than 2013-2014.

look over Eurasia.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I like what i see. Im familiar with an SSW Event and the models seem to have picked up on it. Lots of combos for blocking in the arctic going on right now. I think the cold is coming for sure, lets sit back and see what happens. Might be a bit early for us here in Houston to hope for any winter precip, but building the snowpack north of us would be great.

[gboudx]

Evening update from jeff:

Widespread moderate to at times heavy rainfall underway across much of TX this evening.

Cold front has surged southward this evening entering our NW counties and extending WSW toward SW TX. In the past 2-3 hours radars have shown a gradual increase in both coverage and intensity of rainfall along and behind this frontal boundary especially along the flood prone I-35 corridor between Austin and San Antonio. Recently flash flood warnings have been required under a band of persistent training across northern Bexar County and metro San Antonio. Main thrust of the jet dynamics and moisture plume from Vance and the Gulf is aimed at SC and the western portions of SE TX tonight. Favorable feed of moisture is noted along a line from Matagorda Bay to College Station where NNE moving showers continue to develop in a low level convergent band.

Short term forecast models show the front slowly and stalling after midnight between Houston and Conroe while dropping SSW toward Matagorda Bay. This frontal position allows for the threat for a SSW to NNE training band of rainfall from late tonight into Wednesday along a broad swath from Matagorda Bay to Lake Conroe.

Slower progression of the main upper level trough over MX is now expected to linger rain chances into Thursday as moisture is forced up and over the surface frontal slope on SSW to SW winds in the mid and upper levels. However think the main threat for heavy rainfall and flooding will be tonight and Wednesday across SC and SE TX.

A look ahead suggest some very chilly air will be heading southward over the next few weeks with potential for the first widespread freeze of the season before Thanksgiving. Additionally, a rather wet pattern looks possible also as the beginning effects of the current warm phase ENSO in the Pacific begins to be felt across the southern plains and TX.