Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1200 PM AST TUE NOV 4 2014

PRC059-111-153-041700-
GUAYANILLA PR-PENUELAS PR-YAUCO PR-
1200 PM AST TUE NOV 4 2014

AT 1156 AM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TALLABOA ALTA...OR ABOUT 2 MILES SOUTH OF
PENUELAS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM MAY PRODUCE WIND GUST
UP OT 40 MPH.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$
CAM/RGH

[cycloneye]

A complete and detailed discussion of what to expect for the rest of this wet week in NE Caribbean.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 PM AST TUE NOV 4 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS STRETCHING
SOUTH OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND WILL CUT OFF AND STRENGTHEN
OVER AND SOUTH OF HAITI WEDNESDAY. THE LOW...STRONGEST AT UPPER
LEVELS...WILL DRIFT NORTH OVER HISPANIOLA THURSDAY AND BEGIN TO
JOIN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AND DISSIPATE BY
SATURDAY. HENCE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TOMORROW THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A SHEARLINE IS JUST WEST OF THE AREA. LOW
PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS SHEARLINE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA
AND WILL MOVE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UNTIL IT JOINS A
A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE EXITING MASSACHUSETTS. THIS SHEARLINE AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOIST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN WHILE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN GENERATING MODERATE
TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORMED OVER MANY SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO LEAVING AS MUCH AS 2.5 INCHES IN THE LAST 12 HOURS
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. AT 4 PM AST...A WIDESPREAD
MASS OF RAIN CONTINUES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS IN OUR OUTER ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND NEW CONVECTION
IS DEVELOPING IN THE CARIBBEAN AND FORMING AN ARC THAT STRETCHES
FROM THE WATERS BETWEEN SAINT CROIX SOUTHWEST TO ABOUT 53 MILES
SOUTH OF THE COAST OF SALINAS...PUERTO RICO AND BACK TO JUST
SOUTHWEST OF CABO ROJO. THE LINE WAS INTENSIFYING BUT WAS SHOWING
LITTLE MOVEMENT.

BETTER THAN NORMAL MOISTURE CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 2.2 INCHES DURING
THE PERIOD. 1000-700 MB FLOW WILL TURN SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT
RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL
GRADUALLY BE USHERED IN WHEN FLOW TURNS EASTERLY AT THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
GENERATE A SURFACE LOW NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY. AND UPPER LEVEL JET AROUND THIS LOW WILL
ALSO ADD TO FAVORABLE VERTICAL MOTION ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BUT LOCAL VARIATION IN THE
DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF ESPECIALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION WHOSE EXACT POSITION IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST
AREA CANNOT BE ASCERTAINED NOW THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND MAY BE
EXTENDED INTO TOMORROW OR BEYOND AS THE EXACT STRENGTH AND
POSITION THE DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMES KNOWN. A MODEST
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN NORMAL DURING THIS RAINY SESSION.

&&

.AVIATION...UNSTABLE WX CONDS EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SHRA/TSRA INTO THE EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR AND
BRIEF IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND AT TJMZ/TJBQ AS ISOLD/SCT TSRA DEVELOP ACROSS
THE CWA. IN ADDITION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE
IN/AROUND TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK AS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MOVE INLAND.
EASTERLY WINDS FLOW BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KTS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...BECOMING 5 TO 10 KTS AFT 04/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WILL
CONTINUE IN THE ATLANTIC AND LOCAL PASSAGES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BELOW 7 FEET ON THURSDAY AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
RETURN THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...RAIN...HEAVY AT TIME...WAS OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND ALL PUERTO RICO IN THE MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF W AND NE PR. EMERGENCY MANAGERS REPORTED RIO CIBUCO
AND RIO ARECIBO OUT OF ITS BANKS. BOTH RIVERS ARE SLOWLY RECEDING...
HOWEVER RIO CIBUCO REMAINS OUT OF ITS BANKS. AS A RESULT...AN AREAL
FLOOD WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR RIO CIBUCO AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES THROUGH 7:30 PM AST.

UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN RAPID RISES IN RIVERS...SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS AS WELL
AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE AFTERWARD BUT WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 87 77 86 / 90 80 70 70
STT 76 87 79 87 / 80 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large area of disturbed weather is located over the northeastern
Caribbean Sea and extends northward across Puerto Rico and the
Virgin Islands, and continues over the Atlantic Ocean for several
hundred miles. Surface pressures are gradually falling across this
region and a low pressure system could form during the next day or
so. This system could briefly acquire subtropical characteristics
tomorrow or on Thursday while the low moves west-northwestward to
northwestward. After that time, development is not expected while
the disturbance moves north-northeastward and eventually merges with
another frontal system. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and possible flooding can be expected across the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, and portions of the Dominican Republic
tonight and Wednesday. For additional information on the heavy
rainfall threat, please consult products issued by your national
meteorological service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[msbee]

We have had some heavy showers here today with thunder and lightning. It's quiet now.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1046 PM AST TUE NOV 4 2014

.UPDATE...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DIG OVER HAITI SENDING
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ABOVE
24 KFT. THE 05/00Z SOUNDING SHOWED 75 TO 90 PERCENT RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THROUGHOUT THE SOUNDING WITH A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
OF 2.16 INCHES. RAIN CLEARED OFF OF PUERTO RICO SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS GRAZED THE EASTERN TIP. MUCH
HEAVIER AND MORE PERSISTENT RAIN MOVED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS WITH MODERATE RAIN OVER MOST THE ISLANDS AT THIS TIME.
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ALTHOUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR WITHIN A FEW HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE ALSO BEGUN TO BUILD ABOUT 8 TO 10 MILES
NORTH OF THE PUERTO RICO MAINLAND COAST. AND WHILE CONSIDERABLE
LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED EAST AND NORTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX WITH
A FEW STRIKES IN THE CARIBBEAN WATERS DURING THE LAST HOUR...NONE
HAS BEEN OBSERVED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS IN THE LOCAL WATERS DURING
THE EVENING SO FAR. RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS THE RAIN BAND EAST OF THE SHEARLINE HAS
ALIGNED ITSELF OVER THEM...THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE ONLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE. THE ATMOSPHERE...HOWEVER...CONTINUES TO BE VERY MOIST
AND ALTHOUGH THE LATEST ROUND OF SHOWERS HAS STABILIZED THE AIR IN
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LEAVING A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS 2.8...THE
GENERAL TREND IS FOR MORE CONVECTION TO FORM. AT THIS TIME FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT COULD DEVELOP
TOMORROW...THEREFORE WILL NOT TAKE DOWN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH....BUT WILL ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO DECIDE WHETHER TO EXTEND
IT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AND AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS WOULD CONTINUE TO EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN
THE USUAL NUMBER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE CULEBRINAS RIVER CRESTED AT MOCA AT 24.66 FEET AT
6 PM AST AND HAS NOW DROPPED BELOW 15 FEET. THE CULEBRINAS RIVER
AT THE MARGARITA DAM CONTINUES TO RISE. IT PASSED FLOOD STAGE OF
15 FEET AROUND 7:45 PM AST AND SHOULD CREST WITHIN A FEW HOURS.
THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL 4:45 AM AST TO ALLOW
FOR ALL THE FLOOD WATERS TO REACH THE OCEAN AND FOR ROADS TO
DRAIN. ALL OTHER RIVERS ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE AND NONE ARE
EXPECTED TO FLOOD TONIGHT.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST WED NOV 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEARLINE SAGGING
SOUTHWARDS ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE... AND A DEEPENING
AND ELONGATED TUTT WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
A TUTT LOW IS TO FORM JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA BY EARLY THURSDAY THEN
SETTLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE
MEANTIME AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS TO SLOWLY SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AN INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE ELONGATED MID TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND DIG FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TODAY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THE DAY AND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BROAD TUTT INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO SHIFT WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
IN TANDEM WITH THE DEVELOPING TUTT LOW EXPECTED TO FORM AND SETTLE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY. THE TUTT LOW IS TO THEN
LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE
FILLING/WEAKENING.

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN CONVECTION ACROSS MOST
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS... THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT REMAINS HIGH LATER IN THE DAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS FORECAST...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS
WILL AGAIN LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST MODERATE AMOUNTS OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. DUE TO THIS MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND POSSIBLY
THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION SOILS REMAIN VERY SATURATED AND
UNSTABLE ACROSS THE ISLANDS DUE TO RECENT RAINS. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION AND LEAD TO MUDSLIDE
AND ROCKFALL IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND COULD POSSIBLY BE EXTENDED UNTIL THURSDAY. HOWEVER
WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE ONGOING SITUATION...AND A
DECISION WILL BE MADE LATER ON IN THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN NORMAL DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE CLOUDY SKIES AND THE OCCASIONAL RAINS.
FAIR AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO RANGE BETWEEN 1.7
TO 2.0 INCHES OR SO. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT BUT
SOUTHERLY TODAY...GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO FILTER
IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE REGION RETURNS TO A MORE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SHRA/TSRA OVER THE
LOCAL AREA TODAY. PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR TJMZ/TJBQ/TJPS THIS MORNING AS LOWER
VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. VCSH/VCTS EXPECTED FOR THE
REST OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS THIS MORNING. BKN-OVC SKIES WILL
PREVAIL WITH A CEILING GENERALLY AT AROUND FL060-080...TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
AND THE MONA PASSAGE THROUGH TODAY. IN ADDITION A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL AID IN ENHANCING
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES AT LEAST UNTIL THIS
EVENING. FOR THIS REASON A HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS AND COASTAL HAZARDS
MESSAGE...AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 77 / 80 70 70 60
STT 87 77 88 79 / 70 70 70 70

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1211 PM AST WED NOV 5 2014

.UPDATE...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST...AND AWAY FROM THE
LOCAL AREA...THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAINS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
INTERACT WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL PROLONGED
RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS...
DRY GUTS AND RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUDSLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL PR AND
USVI TERMINALS AS A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AT LEEWARD TERMINALS
MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BUT HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL AID IN ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED TIL EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM OFFSHORE ATLANTIC BUOY. THE
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH LIKELY TO BE CANCELLED SHORTLY. SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST WED NOV 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A weak area of low pressure appears to be forming a couple of
hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. This system is interacting with
an upper-level low and is currently producing a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers. There is some potential for
this low to briefly acquire subtropical characteristics during
the next day or so while it moves northwestward. After that time,
development is not expected as the disturbance moves
north-northeastward and merges with a frontal zone. Regardless of
formation, locally heavy rainfall and possible flooding should
continue across Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through
tonight. For additional information on the heavy rainfall threat,
please consult products issued by your national meteorological
service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
316 PM AST WED NOV 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW...NOW LOCATED
OVER THE HISPANIOLA...WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA
WHICH IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE LOCAL AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST...AND AWAY FORM THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES WEST...THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAINS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...TROUGH ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED LOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER WEST OF THE AREA OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INTERACTING WITH DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

DUE TO ALREADY SATURATED SOILS...ANY ADDITIONAL PROLONGED RAINFALL
MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS...DRY GUTS
AND RIVERS AS WELL AS INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR MUDSLIDES IN
AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. STAY TUNED...ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING...WILL
BE HANDLED WITH THE REGULAR SHORT TERM PRODUCTS...SUCH AS URBAN
FLOOD ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS...
IN THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. THEREFORE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
EXPIRE THIS EVENING.

A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO FILTER IN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHEN THE REGION RETURNS TO A MORE EASTERLY WIND FLOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL PR AND
USVI TERMINALS AS A SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MOVE AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. AT LEEWARD
TERMINALS MOSTLY VFR. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS BUT HIGHER
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...PULSES OF NORTHERLY SWELLS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING...
AND SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE JUST NORTH AND
WEST OF THE REGION WILL AID IN ENHANCING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 74 87 / 70 70 60 30
STT 72 85 77 85 / 80 70 70 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
517 AM AST THU NOV 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE HISPANIOLA AND JUST WEST
OF THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE BROAD SURFACE TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA... WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLE
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS ACROSS MOST OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOWED DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA MAINTAINED A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...WHILE THE BROAD
SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUED TO INDUCE A MOIST SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS OVERALL PATTERN HAS
CONTINUED TO ENHANCE LOCAL CONVECTION AND PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS AND LOCAL PASSAGES AS WELL AS OVER PARTS OF THE WEST...
SOUTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ALTHOUGH THE HAS BEEN A LULL IN SHOWERS ACTIVITY OVER LAND AREAS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT THE OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
TODAY...AND THE ALREADY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
ISLANDS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HOWEVER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.

ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS WILL AGAIN BE ENHANCED BY THE
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING/FILLING. LESSER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY BUT LOCAL FORCING...DIURNAL EFFECTS
AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...WILL STILL GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SO FAR MODELS
SUGGEST IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DECREASES.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH SHRA/ ISOLD TSRA FCST TO MOVE ACROSS THE OVR THE LOCAL AREA
FROM TIME TO TIME. PERIODS OF MVFR/PSBL IFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR
TJMZ/TJBQ/TJPS THIS MORNING AS LOWER VIS/CIGS IS EXPECTED WITH THE
APPROACHING SHRA/ISOLD TSTMS. VCSH/VCTS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
THE LOCAL TERMINALS TIL AT LEAST 06/17Z WITH TEMPO MVFR EN ROUTE
BTW ISLANDS. SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL080...BKN-OVC LYRS MAINLY
BTW FL100-FL250...FEW CB EN ROUTE BTW ERN PR AND USVI...ISOLD TSRA
NE-E-S OF PR TIL 06/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS CANCELLED THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA
AND THE NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS THE LATEST
BUOY DATA AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SEAS AND SWELL ACTION CONTINUE
TO SUBSIDE AND WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER
MESSAGE AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 88 74 / 70 40 60 40
STT 87 78 88 77 / 60 60 60 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
339 PM AST THU NOV 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF HISPANOLA WILL HOLD UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE SLOWLY PULL NORTHEAST DURING THE WEEKEND.
BROAD INDUCED LOW PRESSURE OVER BAHAMAS IS MAINTAINING A SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE ISLANDS FAIRLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW JUST SOUTH OF HISPANOLA.
THIS LOW IS MAINTAINING A UPPER LEVEL JET OVER MONA PASSAGE/WESTERN
PR. THE STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAVE PUSHED MID-HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. DOPPLER RADAR HAVE SHOWED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS MONA PASSAGE...
CARIBBEAN WATERS AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE NORTHERN
SLOPES OF THE ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL REACH THE LOCAL ISLANDS
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL COMBINE
WITH UNSTABLE CONDITIONS INDUCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE
WEST...TO ENHANCE ONCE AGAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL/WEAKEN DURING THE WEEKEND THE LOCATION
OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL KEEP THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS RELATIVELY
HIGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THEN...OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A
GENERALLY STABLE PATTERN AND A DECREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED...HOWEVER UNSTABLE WX CONDS STILL
AFFECTING THE LOCAL AREA. THEREFORE...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ARE FCST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MOUNTAIN OBSC WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND AT TJMZ/TJBQ AS
ISOLD/SCT TSRA DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CWA. IN ADDITION...BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR STILL POSSIBLE IN/AROUND THE TAF SITES AS BRIEF
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA MOVE INLAND. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FLOW BETWEEN 5
AND 15 KTS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFT
06/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...NEAR-SHORE BUOY DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE OVERALL SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE WAVE HEIGHT AT ALL NEARSHORE BUOYS
HAVE DECREASED BELOW 6 FEET. HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC UNTIL THIS EVENING
DUE TO SEAS OF 7-8 FEET ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 88 74 87 / 30 60 40 50
STT 78 88 77 87 / 40 60 60 60

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST FRI NOV 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF HAITI AND ASSOCIATED DEEP
LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUED TO MEANDER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
JUST WEST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING.
CONSEQUENTLY...VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENT PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND LOCAL REGION. AT THE LOW LEVELS...A BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...A
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUED TO CROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND MOVE
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY WHILE INTERACTING WITH THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THE CUTOFF LOW.


&&


.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED CONSIDERABLE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
BEING LIFTED NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE VISIBLE PROPAGATING NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS AND MOVING TOWARDS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SO FAR MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE BUT PERSISTENT RAINFALL HAVE BEEN AFFECTING
PORTIONS OF WEST AND SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
PARTS OF THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND SOME OF
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FREQUENT AND INTENSE LIGHTNING WAS ALSO NOTED
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE...AS WELL AS OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
AND SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS WHERE THE DEEPEST CONVECTION HAS SO
FAR BEEN OCCURRING.

BOTH THE LATEST SATELLITE BLENDED PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT AND GFS
LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATERS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1.8
TO 2.2 INCHES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF MOISTURE AND DEEPEST CONVECTION IS
STILL EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
VERY ACTIVE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND LOCAL WATERS
TODAY AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LATER THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS....THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAND...AS WELL
AS THE POSSIBILITY OF DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IN SOME
AREAS ESPECIALLY OVER PUERTO RICO WHERE LOCAL FORCING WILL BE STRONGER.
THE STRONG CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN ENTERING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS SAINT CROIX AND VIEQUES... THEN
SPREAD NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND DURING THE
REST OF THE DAY. FOR THIS REASON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL GO INTO
EFFECT FROM 8 AM AST TODAY AND CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ALL OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. REMAIN ALERT AND STAY
TUNED FOR FURTHER WEATHER UPDATES OR CHANGES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN OFFICE DURING THE REST OF THE DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND VERY ACTIVE WEATHER CONDS ACROSS THE
FLYING AREA DURG THE FCST PRD. SCT-NUMRS SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL LEAD
TO TEMPO MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDS EN ROUTE BTW ISLANDS AS WELL AS VCTY
TJPS...TJSJ... TIST...TISX THE REST OF THE DAY. REDUCED VIS/CIGS AND
MTN TOP OBSCR EXPECTED IN PRDS OF SHRA/TSRA AND LOW SCUD CLDS. EXPECT
VCSH/VCTS FOR THE THE REMAINDER TAF SITES TIL 07/16Z. AFT 07/16Z...
WIDESPREAD TSRA/SHRA IS FCST OVR RGN...WITH PRDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CONDS ESPECIALLY AT TJSJ... TJMZ...TJBQ. WINDS FROM THE SE
AT 10 KTS...GUSTY AND VARIABLE NEAR TSRA. SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW
FL020-FL100...BKN-OVC BTW FL120-FL250 EN ROUTE BTW HISPANIOLA AND
PR. DEEP CONVECTION FQT LTG EN ROUTE BTW DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND W PR
AND S OF PR...MAX TOPS NR FL400 DURG THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL WFO SAN JUAN DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED INCREASING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AREA OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS
MOVING NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS AS WELL AS THE MONA PASSAGE. AREAS OF FREQUENT AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING WAS ALSO OBSERVED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WATERS AND THE MONA PASSAGE. DURING THE REST
OF THE DAY AN INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
WITH TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HIGHER SEAS... OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST AND SPECIAL MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WFO SAN JUAN PR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 73 88 76 / 90 90 50 20
STT 88 77 88 79 / 90 90 60 40

[cycloneye]

This is what PR and adjacent islands are dealing with today.Saved loop.

[msbee]

Wow, Luis,PR is covered. hope people will take it slow and be safe.
Is that stuff heading our way?
it's very overcast here this morning.

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1107 AM AST FRI NOV 7 2014

VIC010-071600-
SAINT CROIX VI-
1107 AM AST FRI NOV 7 2014

AT 1101 AM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING SAINT CROIX IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING IS REPORTED WITH THESE STORMS. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

$$

FC

[cycloneye]

Wow, Luis,PR is covered. hope people will take it slow and be safe.
Is that stuff heading our way?
it's very overcast here this morning.

Definitly some of this will get to where you are as the upper low moves east and later NE.

[cycloneye]

Information just out is that two of the most biggest dams have opened it's doors to let all the water that is flowing in a rapid rate from the mountains can go downstream.I will post any important information that comes.

[msbee]

thanks for the updates Luis.. hope everyone will be careful and safe.

[Gustywind]

This is what PR and adjacent islands are dealing with today.Saved loop.

http://oi62.tinypic.com/2hcqfs5.jpg

Man say juicy si an euphemisma! Be safe and dry PR, hope really nothing bad happens.

[cycloneye]

Three hours later than above radar loop looks the same. Saved loop.