Texas Fall-2014

[ronyan]

^ Maybe time for him to take a vacation in central CA.

[wxman57]

Come on, cold air! I need 32F at Bush airport to win our contest for the first freeze. I have the earliest date in the contest (Nov. 21st). I win with any freeze prior to then. Winter can be over after that.

Yikes! 30-35F below normal for much of Texas next Thursday:

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You think we could get to 32? I mean i see 30's but freezing is crazy!!!!!!

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php


Ok houston, our tie for the endless showers

[Janie2006]

30-35*F below normal?

Let's see how this plays out. You know things are strange when WxMan is cheering on the cold weather.

[gpsnowman]

30-35*F below normal?

Let's see how this plays out. You know things are strange when WxMan is cheering on the cold weather.

There must be ALOT of money on the line for WxMan to cheer for a freeze. Good luck Heat Miser, I hope you win.
I'm starting to get that giddy, childlike feeling when you think a snow day is possible. Everything I have read the last couple days points to something big happening next week. Even if it is only a drastic change in temps and no rain/snow, I will be happy. Strong north winds, possible record cold; I can't wait!!!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

With deeper Lows and deeper cold air, does this mean that the potential for more overrunning moisture as well? Last year we didnt get much of that. Typically in the past when it snows here with a BIG arctic blast, we have snow because of overrunning air being lifted above the colder air.

[Portastorm]

With deeper Lows and deeper cold air, does this mean that the potential for more overrunning moisture as well? Last year we didnt get much of that. Typically in the past when it snows here with a BIG arctic blast, we have snow because of overrunning air being lifted above the colder air.

Absolutely ... as I (and others like srainhoutx and Ntxw) have shared in several posts here and in the winter thread, when you're dealing with upper level energy, we often see in wintertime coastal lows or surface lows develop deep in the Valley as a reflection of the upper level energy.

[Janie2006]

On my stretch of the coast the only way we get winter precipitation is through a developing coastal low spreading overrunning precip over the existing cold air. It has happened through other means, but it's very rare. In fact, during winter some of the lows that develop in the northwestern Gulf "sweet spot" go on to become Nor'easters.

[northjaxpro]

NAO and AO is forecast to really tank by the middle of this month, from Nov 14-18. We will see if that comes to fruition, but if the GFS is correct, much of the country east of the Rockies could be seeing some rather cold air infiltrating south and east.

Also, NOAA's 8-14 day temp outlook. Look at how much below normal the CONUS east of the Rockies are currently forecast to be:

[TeamPlayersBlue]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

Great loop of how the super storm in the NPAC effects the upper air pattern

After looking at it again, i think that the upper air pattern was ready to dump the cold air despite the recurving storm. Look at that UL High in the arctic and how the PV buckles. Probably my fav angle of how the dynamics play out fo the lower 48

[Ntxw]

Euro ENS/control still dumping arctic air down the great plains and spreads eastward. Probably one of the bigger blasts for mid November, 1976 style.

[Ntxw]

Pay attention this weekend in the Aleutians and Bering Sea. Nuri's extratropical Bombogenesis will be the first domino to fall, which will begin raising heights over Alaska and Western Canada into a -EPO tank which then slowly progresses into the AO domain and turn it severely negative. That pretty much sets in motion everything else.

Sub 920mb, would be one of the greatest (at least that I can remember) extratropical systems you will ever witness at that latitude.

[northjaxpro]

Yep. The AO I believe has to potential to really drop sharply negative later this month and the Bering Sea superstorm (ex-Nuri) will be one for the ages indeed.

[weatherdude1108]

2.27 inches of liquid gold upon going to bed. Still light rain hanging on. Very nice!

[Jarodm12]

Gfs model:i would watch texas at 180 hrs through 204 hrs to see how the cold air and precipitation interact could get interesting.

[asd123]

Pay attention this weekend in the Aleutians and Bering Sea. Nuri's extratropical Bombogenesis will be the first domino to fall, which will begin raising heights over Alaska and Western Canada into a -EPO tank which then slowly progresses into the AO domain and turn it severely negative. That pretty much sets in motion everything else.

Sub 920mb, would be one of the greatest (at least that I can remember) extratropical systems you will ever witness at that latitude.

Yep. The AO I believe has to potential to really drop sharply negative later this month and the Bering Sea superstorm (ex-Nuri) will be one for the ages indeed.

Don't forget about the current ongoing SSW!

[somethingfunny]

After getting lucky with huge rainfall totals in early October, my weather reverted back to average here. Right about 1 inch of rain fell on my yard over the past two days. I'll take it!

We have a sneaky little front coming in on Saturday with some low precipitation chances, nothing that I would bet on though. Is the big Arctic front next week likely to come through dry? I'm hoping for more rainfall soon... or.... well, I'm not brave enough to hope for sn** publicly lest I jinx that.

Watching our new EPAC Invest too. It might become Winnie... it might be another player for us next week.

[ravyrn]

Did anyone happen to snag the altered excel sheets I created and shared on the Meteogram Thread? My hard drive crapped out on me a couple of weeks ago, and I apparently forgot to keep backups on my flash drive. As we get back near winter months, where meteograms are often posted, I was wondering if anyone happened to snag them? The links on the site I uploaded the sheets to no longer are valid, and I'd rather not go through the trouble of making the alterations to 57's original sheets again to add 850mb temps to the long range GFS or making recreating the NAM's sheet.

[Ntxw]

Ensembles are still very cold (OP too as they are slowly able to grasp the magnitude). Quite the cold anomalies associated are worthy of a January cold front. Interesting thing is the block stays up there, so the cold stays longer, stronger until the next one comes tumbling down.

[weatherdude1108]

2.32 inches final tally for this 2-3 day event. Tiny areas of minor ponding in backyard yesterday. But all soaked in now. Should keep the soil profile moist for any upcoming potential freezes.