Texas Fall-2014

[TheProfessor]

We got a gas fireplace at my house, so no need for wood here.

[weatherguy425]

And, just an observation:

Oh, hello 96E (possibly Winnie). ECMWF picking up on it, but at this point I would take any one forecast model with a grain of salt. That said, many tropical models do pull (Winnie?) along the Mexican coast. At least some mid-level moisture?



Edit: Euro also keep a progressive, yet present, few systems that quickly eject west to east along the axis of colder air. And, with the the AO going WAY negative on again, these suckers will want to 'dig'. IMO.

--------------------
The above post is not an actual forecast and should be taken lightly.

[Portastorm]

You want consistency with your medium-range solutions? Well, the 12z GFS brings a 1052mb high into eastern Montana next week and the 12z Euro brings a 1045mb high into eastern Montana. Both send cold, polar air straight into Texas. Highs in the upper 40s for Austin by next Thursday/Friday ... in the middle of November ... we're talking departures of 25-30 degrees BELOW NORMAL if this verifies.

[Janie2006]

I've been burned one too many times on outbreaks like this in the past, so I think I'll wait a bit before jumping on it. In other words, let me see a few more model runs first.

[Ntxw]

I've been burned one too many times on outbreaks like this in the past, so I think I'll wait a bit before jumping on it. In other words, let me see a few more model runs first.

You could argue the models are catching up to us! Thats the beauty of of this board lately compared to the past when one or two runs stir something. Now more times than not we have knowledged posters select a period in which something may occur with good reason and watch the models fall into place

[Ralph's Weather]

I've been burned one too many times on outbreaks like this in the past, so I think I'll wait a bit before jumping on it. In other words, let me see a few more model runs first.

I understand this thought process, but you will rarely see a more consistently forecasted system by all of the models. Check out http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/ and look at the run comparisons for next week (hours 120+).

[Ralph's Weather]

I've been burned one too many times on outbreaks like this in the past, so I think I'll wait a bit before jumping on it. In other words, let me see a few more model runs first.

You could argue the models are catching up to us! Thats the beauty of of this board lately compared to the past when one or two runs stir something. Now more times than not we have knowledged posters select a period in which something may occur with good reason and watch the models fall into place

This is true, we have been discussing this system for a good while now with very little change in thought. With blocking in place it is much easier to see what is going to happen compared to winters without blocking when systems move through freely and fairly sporadically.

[aggiecutter]

Record breaking cold next weekend, perhaps:

[somethingfunny]

FWD is surprisingly unimpressed with the upcoming front:

NO PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORECAST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS
IN THE FORECAST FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK AS THE 0C 850 MB ISOTHERM MAKES IT AT LEAST
AS FAR AS THE RED RIVER. THE SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST THAT THE COLDEST AIR WITH NEXT WEEKS
COLD INTRUSION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDWEST STATES. 09/GP

[gatorcane]

Their forecast above follows today's 12Z ECMWF closely, 144 and 168 temperature anomaly images below. Beyond that though the GFS and ECMWF show more anomalously cold air digging more south into Texas, in the long-range (like 8-10 day range)

[aggiecutter]

[quote="gatorcane"]:uarrow: Their forecast above follows today's 12Z ECMWF closely, 144 and 168 temperature anomaly images below. Beyond that though the GFS and ECMWF show more anomalously cold air digging more south into Texas, in the long-range (like 8-10 day range)

I have the 10 day EURO 850's posted above, and it has the core of the cold air settling over North Texas next weekend.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Their forecast above follows today's 12Z ECMWF closely, 144 and 168 temperature anomaly images below. Beyond that though the GFS and ECMWF show more anomalously cold air digging more south into Texas, in the long-range (like 8-10 day range)

I have the 10 day EURO 850's posted above, and it has the core of the cold air settling over North Texas next weekend.

aggiecutter, check out the 12z CMC. You'll probably enjoy that run.

[weatherdude1108]

Here are the final rainfall totals across the area. Much of the region got over 2 inches of rain, while some parts of San Antonio received over 6 inches of rain in the past 48 hours! What a great rain event! I'm very thankful for all of the rain we have received!

Me too!!

[Ralph's Weather]

I cannot believe how confident we are in a 7+ day fall forecast, but it sure appears almost certain that we will get far below average temps starting next Tuesday. I am seeing what could be multiple systems that could provide winter precip chances in the cold air starting with Thursday and again Sunday.

[TheProfessor]

:uarrow: Their forecast above follows today's 12Z ECMWF closely, 144 and 168 temperature anomaly images below. Beyond that though the GFS and ECMWF show more anomalously cold air digging more south into Texas, in the long-range (like 8-10 day range)

I have the 10 day EURO 850's posted above, and it has the core of the cold air settling over North Texas next weekend.

aggiecutter, check out the 12z CMC. You'll probably enjoy that run.

Where can I find the CMC?

[Portastorm]

Where can I find the CMC?

It's also called the GEM. Go to think link on Levi Cowan's model page and click on the Total Snowfall (look at hours 180 thru 192 for the 12z run):

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2014110612/

[WeatherNewbie]

We are going hiking in the Ouachita National Forest next Thursday through Sunday. Gonna freeze our @sses off, aren't we?!

[weatherdude1108]

The EWX office has a brief snippet of next week's Arctic adventures.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 062103
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
303 PM CST THU NOV 6 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A CUTOFF LOW OVER
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS TEXAS. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TROPICAL MOISTURE STILL STREAMING
ACROSS MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LYING
ALONG THE COAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO NORTH
TEXAS. WINDS ACROSS OUR CWA ARE FROM THE NORTH. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO. DURING THIS
PERIOD THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN TO A WAVE AND PROGRESS TO THE EAST.
THE FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT BEFORE IT MAKES
IT TO OUR AREA. WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO THE EAST BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK THE FLOW WILL BECOME BRIEFLY ZONAL THEN ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY BEGINNING A DRY PERIOD THAT WILL
EXTEND THROUGH MONDAY. TUESDAY A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER AIR. THERE STILL WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH...SO ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE LOWEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON LIKELY.

&&

[somethingfunny]

We are going hiking in the Ouachita National Forest next Thursday through Sunday. Gonna freeze our @sses off, aren't we?!

Yes, you are! Aren't the fall colors past peak up there by now?

[Rgv20]

NWS in Brownsville afternoon discussion regarding next weeks cold weather..

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...IMPROVING WEATHER
CONDITIONS COMMENCE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM WITH THE
TYPICAL WARM AND INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. THEN WE TURN TO THE
NORTH WHICH BEARS WATCHING AS MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A POLAR FRONT
FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS BY THE
END OF THE LONG TERM.[/b]

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THESE DAYS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE
PROGRESS OF A COLD FRONT WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH. A FULL LATITUDE
TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH AMERICA.
TELECONNECTIONS INDICATE A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER
THE PACIFIC WILL SEND A STRONG POLAR FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN U.S. FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC FRONT. THE POLAR FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE RGV TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN A MODIFIED
STATE WHILE THE ARCTIC FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO REACH THIS FAR
SOUTH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AS DOES
THE NEW FORECAST. RAIN CHANCES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS THE POLAR
FRONT MAY STALL OFFSHORE. BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE PAINTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP. EXPECT
A POSSIBLE PROLONG PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY-
FRIDAY WITH FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPERATURES AND RAIN PROBABILITIES
AS WE APPROACH THIS TIME PERIOD.