Texas Fall-2014

[Ntxw]

The -EPO is now forecasted not only to tank but is off the charts low. The AO keeps going lower as well and staying low.

We're about to end fall abrubtly and dive head first to winter

[Portastorm]

Wow ... did srainhoutx do a fabulous job of framing our discussion for the next 7-10 days or what?! Nice work, sir.

Let's keep the dialogue rolling ... a lot of good posts in this thread the last few days.

[gatorcane]

Yeah very nice post srainhoutx, a great read!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Great post above. Really excited, im interested in what this secondary cold blast will look like and if something happens in the state of texas with it... Again still too early to see if any precip will be with it but im liking what i see

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like we are in for repeated cold shots and increasing chances for storminess as time goes on.

[gatorcane]

This storm and potential arctic outbreak for the lower 48 is starting to get national attention - of course we sniffed it out first here on storm2k!

http://news.yahoo.com/remnant-typhoon-n ... 35931.html

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I'm getting pumped about the potential of this coming winter down here. Need something after such a dismal hurricane season. Anyway don't know if any of y'all caught it last night but my wife was watching CNN and they were already talking about this potential outbreak as well. Of course they were hyping the dreaded "polar vortex" but people are starting to acknowledge the potential.

[hriverajr]

At the moment, the upcoming cold snap looks dry, perhaps some precip in Texas Friday into the weekend.

[gatorcane]

The extra-tropical storm is down to 927 MB on the 00Z ECMWF in 24 hours approaching the Aleutian islands

[Tireman4]

I'm getting pumped about the potential of this coming winter down here. Need something after such a dismal hurricane season. Anyway don't know if any of y'all caught it last night but my wife was watching CNN and they were already talking about this potential outbreak as well. Of course they were hyping the dreaded "polar vortex" but people are starting to acknowledge the potential.

Superpolarvortexmaggedon!!

[TheProfessor]

How does this storm match up with the McFarland signature from last year, I know the cold and length of cold won't be the same, but how close are they related intensity wise?

[srainhoutx]

A quick update on the 12Z parallel GFS regarding early next week. It is not often even in the heart of Winter we see a 1052mb Arctic High settling into Montana, much less on November 11th-12th. This my friends will be a true 'blue norther'...

[Ntxw]

How does this storm match up with the McFarland signature from last year, I know the cold and length of cold won't be the same, but how close are they related intensity wise?

I was about to make a post on it. At 500mb it is McFarland's signature block. Anomalous high pressures in the EPO/NP region and davis strait-hudson pv. However at the surface it is November and not DJF, but make no doubt it is potent.

[ronyan]

Look at the temp anomalies for next Friday via the parallel GFS! >50F below normal in parts of Montana and the Dakotas, with 25-30F below normal here in SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

Look at the temp anomalies for next Friday via the parallel GFS! >50F below normal in parts of Montana and the Dakotas, with 25-30F below normal here in SE TX.

The p types for later next week are also interesting. The parallel GFS suggests light snow falling across the Central/Southern Plains as a secondary shortwave drops S. There are hints of over running precip developing into next weekend, so that will be something to monitor as we get into the mid next week timeframe to see if it verifies. Also the parallel GFS suggests a secondary surge of Arctic air nearing the Border next Saturday into Sunday, so the pattern may well reload into the longer range.

[Ntxw]

Great post srain, these arctic blasts usually comes with a storm we're just not in close enough yet for these things to be resolute on guidance yet. They will probably trend wetter as the days come.

[Ralph's Weather]

Look at the temp anomalies for next Friday via the parallel GFS! >50F below normal in parts of Montana and the Dakotas, with 25-30F below normal here in SE TX.

The p types for later next week are also interesting. The parallel GFS suggests light snow falling across the Central/Southern Plains as a secondary shortwave drops S. There are hints of over running precip developing into next weekend, so that will be something to monitor as we get into the mid next week timeframe to see if it verifies. Also the parallel GFS suggests a secondary surge of Arctic air nearing the Border next Saturday into Sunday, so the pattern may well reload into the longer range.

The models are starting to show what we have been expecting out of this with the initial surge of cold on Monday then a shortwave then a coastal low then repeat the next week. Or at least I think it will play out that way. I just do not see room for much warming in between and if we can get some good snow cover over the Plains next week we are set to go for winter.

[dhweather]

I'm in camp with WXMAN57, UNLESS we get winter precip, then I don't mind it being just plain old cold.

If it is cold and dry, I'd rather it be in the 80's or 90's.

[dhweather]

All system are go for a pleasant weekend and the upper low currently just S of the Big Bend finally weakens and shears out. The pesky upper low which helped in steering the remnants of EPAC TC Vance NE across Texas brought and 8 foot rise in the Edwards Aquifer in a 48 hour period. This sort of steady rainfall was sorely needed across Central Texas. A cold front will arrive on Saturday reinforcing the pleasant Fall temperatures before the big pattern change we've all heard about by now ahead for next week.



The Global Ensembles and Operational computer guidance is in remarkably good agreement the former Super Typhoon Nuri will transition into a powerful Extratropical Storm near the Bering Sea. In the water vapor satellite imagery above, the storm is now entering the far upper left of the imagery and should wrap up and be rather impressive via satellite visible pictures over the weekend into Monday. Winds near or above 80 MPH with wave heights nearing 50 feet are forecast and expect near the Aleutian Island and the Bering Sea. The Super Storm will buckle the jet stream and allow very impressive cold air that has been building across Eurasia/Siberia due to extremely heavy October snowfall near record territory to be pulled across the Arctic into North America and spill very far south into Texas, Mexico and eventually into the Yucatan and Cuba later next week. The Canadian Prairies have been getting snow over the past several weeks, but the Northern/Central Plains are lacking any snow, so airmass modification will occur. That said the coldest air of the season will plunge S along and E of the Continental Divide and remain entrenched with reinforcing shots of cold air with the fast moving Northerly flow aloft and embedded upper air energy (shortwaves) bring cold fronts in fairly rapid progression during next week. The teleconnection indices are aligning in a very impressive fashion that bring a very - Arctic Oscillation/AO (-4+) -North Atlantic Oscillation/NAO (-1.5+) -East Pacific Oscillation/EPO (-4+) +Pacific North America Pattern/PNA (+3) regime together next week and just beyond the mid November timeframe. What this means for the Southern Plains and Texas is a Ridge of High Pressure build off the West Coast into Eastern Alaska into the Arctic while a very deep trough develops across Central and Eastern North America. The Pattern become blocked across the Atlantic which would allow the cold air to sweep E and miss our Region as we see in most Fall and Winter patterns. The fly in the ointment is the sub tropical jet across the Pacific and what it may or may not bring as El Nino continues to unfold.

There is convection associated with a tropical disturbance (96E) several hundred miles off the W Coast of Mexico and the track guidance is suggesting this disturbance remains rather weak, but does turn it NE toward the Pacific Coast of Mexico next week. At the same time the computer guidance is 'sniffing' a robust piece of upper level energy (shortwave) under cutting the Ridge out W and developing a low pressure system along the front range of the Southern Rockies near New Mexico/Colorado. This happens later next week (around November 15th -17th) after the Arctic front arrives late on Monday into Tuesday. IF, and it is a big if the models such as the European are correct a big Winter like storm may develop across the Panhandle and cross the Southern Plains ushering in even colder air and build a snow cover across the Plains. If that happens, then much less airmass modification is a possibility. The guidance is suggesting another stronger Arctic front following this energy, so we have a lot of moving parts to follow on our weather plate and should lead to some interesting discussions as next week unfolds.

I did a post reply to get this on the current page - OUTSTANDING writeup by srainhoutex on the next 7-10 days - WELL DONE SIR !!!

[Tireman4]

[
I did a post reply to get this on the current page - OUTSTANDING writeup by srainhoutex on the next 7-10 days - WELL DONE SIR !!![/quote]

That is because the man knows his weather. Again, amazing write up sir!!