Weakening, why is that??? Don't be fooled though.....

[WXBUFFJIM]

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen. The question of the day is why is Isabel on a weakening state? A trough to the northwest of the system is resulting in more shear from the west and southwest today. Thus the hurricane is not symmetrical like it was in the past. This is good news for now.

HOWEVER this trough is expected to quickly move north into Canada tomorrow into Wednesday and be replaced by a ridge of high pressure over the eastern seaboard. Thus shear will lessen and with Isabel moving over the gulf stream midweek, those combinations could be devastating. I'm forecasting Isabel to restrengthen after today as this hurricane has this improved upper environment of less shear and the very warm gulf stream waters to fuel the storm.

The MANDATORY evacuations in Hyde County are done for good reason. The navy ships, which could leave Norfolk and go out to sea is a good decision. We can't let our guard down. This weakening is just a momentary blip. I'm afraid this will restrengthen over the next day or two before landfall Thursday morning. Keep an eye on that possible trend, it may verify!!!

Then the second much stronger trough will cause Isabel will accelerate northward after landfall plowing through the Chesapeake Bay and Tidal Potomac. Areas that don't usually see hurricanes this far north and inland could see a rare opportunity Thursday afternoon and night. DC, Baltimore, Philly, Harrisburg and Dover are all in this threat!!! The coastal areas from Atlantic City south could see conditions much worse than just minimal hurricane force winds, especially given the storm surge, and large battering waves combined with the heavy rains!!

Don't let your guard down peoples!!!

Jim

[JCT777]

Good advice to everyone Jim. We should not let our guard down. And there is the potential for Isabel to strengthen again in the next day or 2 (but probably not to Cat 5 level).

[JetMaxx]

Jim I totally agree with you....the scenario of this hurricane moving north then turning back to the NW underneath the ridge as it approaches the Gulf Stream will be very conductive for intensification....why I still believe we could be talking a 115-120 kt cat-4 at landfall on the Outer Banks..