Isabel's Weakening Trend...what's happening

#1 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:45 pm

I wanted to exlpain what I think is happening to Izzy. As you know...she has been what is called an Annular hurricane. Annular hurricanes have rather large eyes...no banding features and rather warm (relatively speaking) cloud tops. They also maintain intesity for longer periods of time. The are symetrical...round.

What I believe we have witnesses last night and this morning is the transitioning of an annular storm into a classic structured hurricane. The eye has contracted. There are now banding features. She is not as symetrical. Cloud tops have cooled.

As with any process of change...there is pain invovled. Changing ones look is painful and so it was with izzy. She won't be back to a 5...but her structure is looking better with each new image as she gets a new look. I've never seen "Nip and Tuck" on FX...but it looks rather painful to get a whole new image...and that is what Izzy is doing today.

#2 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:50 pm

Is this restructuring due to the movement change? Will it still continue on it's forecasted path with this change?

#3 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:51 pm

What would this change be due to - the shear that she's experiencing and the turn?

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:54 pm

What caused her transition from annular to a "regular" ...for lack of a better word... hurricane :?:

Thanks for the explanation of whats taking place :wink:

#5 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 1:56 pm

It's not going to change the movement...or affect the models in anyway. It will still move in it's forecasted direction.

Steph-It has likely changed due to the way the surrounding environment has changed. I say likely because you never know. I don't have the data to say for sure but if I had a gun to my head and someone said make a choice...that would be the choice

I would say it would be the way the storms outflow interacted with the trough to the west. It went from being in a relatively tranquil envirnment to a not so tranquil one. Like an ice skater spinning in circles with no one around to one trying to do it in a rink with 50 3 year olds. It had to do something.

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:00 pm

Air Force Met wrote:It's not going to change the movement...or affect the models in anyway. It will still move in it's forecasted direction.

Steph-It has likely changed due to the way the surrounding environment has changed. I say likely because you never know. I don't have the data to say for sure but if I had a gun to my head and someone said make a choice...that would be the choice I would say it would be the way the storms outflow interacted with the trough to the west. It went from being in a relatively tranquil envirnment to a not so tranquil one. Like an ice skater spinning in circles with no one around to one trying to do it in a rink with 50 3 year olds. It had to do something.

Thanks..thats what I thought..thats why annular canes are comman in the other basins..not much interacation with fronts and such??

#7 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:04 pm

They happen here too...just not close to land...and we have less wate than the pac.

#8 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:04 pm

That's interesting. I really didn't know that there was a difference in types of hurricanes. Thanks for the explanation!

southerngale · #9 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 2:28 pm

Thanks for the great explanation Nelson!!

I saw this was starting to happen late last night but I had no idea exactly how painful it would be for her. The 2am discussion noted that she was looking more ragged and they thought the change was beginning from annular to spiral banding. We could all tell that she didn't look as great as before but I didn't expect her to change quite so much. Anyway, she is starting to look better with each new frame.

Thanks again for explaining it all so well.

#10 Postby **Air Force Met** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 4:00 pm

Bump for Steve Lyons

chadtm80 · #11 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 4:00 pm

ROFLMAO

JetMaxx · #12 Postby **JetMaxx** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 6:52 pm

ROFL!!!!!

DelStormLover · #13 Postby **DelStormLover** » Mon Sep 15, 2003 7:08 pm

Isabel's Weakening Trend...what's happening

Isabel's Weakening Trend...what's happening

Who is online