Texas Fall-2014

[aggiecutter]

I found this interesting weather tidbit when scouring the internet:

"Now we all know that snow in Austin is pretty rare. So rare, in fact, that people unfathomably, inconceivably seem to *actually* enjoy it! But while rare, snow is not totally foreign, and happens at a measurable level once or twice a decade.

The most snowfall in Austin history, it turns out, was 9.7 inches on November 11th, 1937. That’s a pretty healthy snowfall for anywhere in a 24-hour period, but for Central Texas it’s darn near apocalyptic.

The second most snowfall in Austin history was 6.5 inches on January 30th, 1949. 6.5 inches is also a pretty healthy amount of snow, but this one is probably remembered even more for the next day. Unlike our recent snow event, where 65 degree temperatures the day after melted virtually all the chilly white stuff in a day’s time, January 31st, 1949, recorded the coldest day in Austin history at -2 degrees below zero."

[Ntxw]

The most snowfall in Austin history, it turns out, was 9.7 inches on November 11th, 1937. That’s a pretty healthy snowfall for anywhere in a 24-hour period, but for Central Texas it’s darn near apocalyptic.

Interesting you posted this! DFW's record snowfall for November is also in 1937 at 5 inches (1976 is second with 4.7). It's not from the same system as the Austin storm but it would be cool to see how the weather pattern transpired for that November.

Just a few flakes in Austin would essentially shut down PWC HQ, imagine a 9 inch storm, we would get no forecast updates for weeks on end!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

That map looks like a wish cast lol. Maybe if the high comes crashing down but i dont think it will.

Ntx post, the high is already at 1040. That HP is going to be HUGE

[gboudx]

Meteorologist Todd Warren of NBC 6 in Shreveport just posted this on his Facebook: The map is from his Future Cast Weather Model. The map is for lows Tuesday night the 17th of November.


Todd Warren NBC 6
about an hour ago
Still looking at a big blast of Arctic air that begins to arrive next weekend and will be firmly in place by the first of next week. Here is one model's depiction of Monday's high temperatures (30s & low 40s) and Tuesday's low temperatures (10s & 20s). Still looks like lots of rain on the way next weekend. We will have to watch the end of this event as some models indicate that winter precip will be possible. Stay Tuned!

We're in Broken Bow this weekend for a camping trip. Looking like fun.

[aggiecutter]

That map looks like a wish cast lol. Maybe if the high comes crashing down but i dont think it will.

Ntx post, the high is already at 1040. That HP is going to be HUGE

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Correction, the first HP doesnt make it all the way down.

[gpsnowman]

Good morning weather gang. After one more warm day that cold wind on Tuesday will be a shock to the system. Just watched NBC5 and it looks like a couple freezes are in order for the middle of the week. Gave the heater a trial run yesterday at the house and it is all systems go. The forecast showed a moderation in temps for the weekend. Still hoping for the second surge with some moisture. Enjoy the cold front everyone.

[Ntxw]

0z Euro puts down quite a bit of snow, and is quite cold for its entire run, challenging all time November records. Take it as you will for what its worth.

[iorange55]

0z Euro puts down quite a bit of snow, and is quite cold for its entire run, challenging all time November records. Take it as you will for what its worth.

I believe it. I think we are seeing something special take place here, and I also believe it's going to last all winter. Obviously there will be some warming, but I think overall we are looking at well below average temps for this winter.

[Ntxw]

0z Euro puts down quite a bit of snow, and is quite cold for its entire run, challenging all time November records. Take it as you will for what its worth.

I believe it. I think we are seeing something special take place here, and I also believe it's going to last all winter. Obviously there will be some warming, but I think overall we are looking at well below average temps for this winter.

With the EPO 5 sigma (remember 3-4 is good enough for records) and the AO 4-5 sigma below crazy things happen

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im not subscribed to any sites so cant get a good depiction of what the euro is showing precip wise, but it looks quite interesting. Dallas could get some action next week.Little luck, maybe SE Tx, this is me being optimistic.

[Ntxw]

For those following ENSO the waters have warmed to 0.8C this week and real time data has it even higher, well above 0.5C needed. Its a formality by the CPC but essentially El Nino is here, we are only a few jumps from moderate range.

[srainhoutx]

0z Euro puts down quite a bit of snow, and is quite cold for its entire run, challenging all time November records. Take it as you will for what its worth.

I believe it. I think we are seeing something special take place here, and I also believe it's going to last all winter. Obviously there will be some warming, but I think overall we are looking at well below average temps for this winter.

With the EPO 5 sigma (remember 3-4 is good enough for records) and the AO 4-5 sigma below crazy things happen

PNA is nearing +5 via the Euro so the teleconnection indices are nearing record territory for mid November.

[Ntxw]

PNA is nearing +5 via the Euro so the teleconnection indices are nearing record territory for mid November.

You are right good sir. The GFS is there, just at the surface it doesn't reflect it as well (yet). You can argue it's near record territory any time of year, 1983 had some obscene EPO and 1985 had some obscene AO/PNA. I just haven't seen them do it together, maybe they did in the late 70s.

[srainhoutx]

PNA is nearing +5 via the Euro so the teleconnection indices are nearing record territory for mid November.

You are right good sir. The GFS is there, just at the surface it doesn't reflect it as well (yet). You can argue it's near record territory any time of year, 1983 had some obscene EPO and 1985 had some obscene AO/PNA. I just haven't seen them do it together, maybe they did in the late 70s.

We can even go back a bit further to the early 60's and late 50's, but that was prior to the satellite era. I do remember the early 60's and late 70's rather well, but was too young to recall what the late 50's brought us across the Lone Star State.

[Ralph's Weather]

Multiple teles around 5 is incredible. It will be very interesting to watch how this all affects the sensible weather here.

[Ntxw]

As if that wasn't enough, we've seen the stratospheric warming occur the past few weeks Siberia bottom up, AO responding now. In the coming weeks a SSW is about to occur top down. Look for another severe -AO period come December, the SAI in October was money.

[wxman57]

Latest runs of the GFS (even the parallel run) are losing the cold air by next Saturday, at least across SE TX. They are now showing a slow warm-up back to the 70s next week. Euro says "nope" and indicates freezing temps for SE TX next week. It's common for the GFS to lose the cold air in the 5-10 day time frame.

[Tireman4]

Latest runs of the GFS (even the parallel run) are losing the cold air by next Saturday, at least across SE TX. They are now showing a slow warm-up back to the 70s next week. Euro says "nope" and indicates freezing temps for SE TX next week. It's common for the GFS to lose the cold air in the 5-10 day time frame.

Will the bi polar Wxman 57 ever come back? We miss him...

[dhweather]

Latest runs of the GFS (even the parallel run) are losing the cold air by next Saturday, at least across SE TX. They are now showing a slow warm-up back to the 70s next week. Euro says "nope" and indicates freezing temps for SE TX next week. It's common for the GFS to lose the cold air in the 5-10 day time frame.

The GFS always struggles badly with cold weather. Hopefully V2 is better with it.