ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

The downward trend of SOI continues on this Saturday November 8.

Code: Select all

SOI values for 08 Nov 2014


Average for last 30 days
-12.3

Average for last 90 days
-8.6

Daily contribution to SOI calculation
-21.9


[LarryWx]

Folks,
The Cowan graph has 3.4 up to +0.831, the warmest since the early summer very shortlived spike to just above +1.0. TAO is also at its warmest in a long time thanks mainly to the eastern part of 3.4. I agree with Ntwx and am looking for a rise to ~+0.7 in the next weekly report. I'm already thinking that at least a +0.8 the subsequent week is becoming more likely.

[Ntxw]

Yeah 0.7C is most likely but on the high end I wouldn't be surprised if it was 0.8C

[cycloneye]

I am going ahead to say this.

Remember the date (December 4) because is when CPC will declare officially El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Here are the last four days of data of the 30 day SOI that shows how it continues to go down with the last reading at -13.2.

20141007,20141105,-10.6
20141008,20141106,-11.8
20141009,20141107,-12.5
20141010,20141108,-13.2

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/soi.txt

[Ntxw]

0.8C this week. Will be official, there is little reason to not believe the El Nino has clicked and probably will continue.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

05NOV2014 21.9 0.5 25.8 0.9 27.4 0.8 29.5 0.9



Wow

[euro6208]

looks like a very active typhoon season next year (although our season is year round). more stronger typhoons first half with an outbreak in the second if this last into late 2015...

still got another full month to go before 2014 ends as el ninos tends to drive storm formation closer to the dateline and possibly threaten the islands...

[dexterlabio]

Do we blame this El Nino for the early start of winter in some places in the US and Canada? Particularly the western sections...my relatives in Northern California are saying that the temperature has dipped earlier compared to the past few years.

[cycloneye]

Text of the CPC 11/10/14 update that has Nino 3.4 up to +0.8C.Is inevitable the declaration at the date I said at above post.



http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

[Kingarabian]

Relatives in SoCal are also saying it's a lot colder than it was in previous years.

Also, with Nino 3.4 being at 0.8+ that means we're close to moderate Nino. If we do get a moderate Nino rather than a weak Nino, that means we maybe looking at La Nina next year rather than a neutral or a double dip Nino?

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,I saw this posted in another forum (Dr Masters blog) as the debate grows about when El Nino will be officially declared and I wanted your take on this. I say on December 4th monthly CPC update but then is this:

El Nino isn't declared til there is five consecutive, overlapping 3 month averages at or above 0.5. ASO (August/Sept/Oct) was 0.2...If all of Nov was warm enough to average SON to 0.5 or more and it stayed warm enough, an offical El Nino wouldn't be declared til the JFM numbers were in...Which doesn't happen til the beginning of April. April is the absolute earliest an offical El Nino would be declared by NOAA at this point.

[Yellow Evan]

Relatives in SoCal are also saying it's a lot colder than it was in previous years.

Also, with Nino 3.4 being at 0.8+ that means we're close to moderate Nino. If we do get a moderate Nino rather than a weak Nino, that means we maybe looking at La Nina next year rather than a neutral or a double dip Nino?

It's been near-record warm here in Vegas. As for a moderate Nino, we likely will get some weeklies above 1,0, but no trimonthlies IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

Ntxw,I saw this posted in another forum (Dr Masters blog) as the debate grows about when El Nino will be officially declared and I wanted your take on this. I say on December 4th monthly CPC update but then is this:

El Nino isn't declared til there is five consecutive, overlapping 3 month averages at or above 0.5. ASO (August/Sept/Oct) was 0.2...If all of Nov was warm enough to average SON to 0.5 or more and it stayed warm enough, an offical El Nino wouldn't be declared til the JFM numbers were in...Which doesn't happen til the beginning of April. April is the absolute earliest an offical El Nino would be declared by NOAA at this point.

In December, I think they will declare El Nino conditions, though they can not be declared fully (i.e. it will appear blue on the charts) until April.

[NDG]

Do we blame this El Nino for the early start of winter in some places in the US and Canada? Particularly the western sections...my relatives in Northern California are saying that the temperature has dipped earlier compared to the past few years.

I do not think so, I would blame the negative AO, IMO.

[LarryWx]

Relatives in SoCal are also saying it's a lot colder than it was in previous years.

Also, with Nino 3.4 being at 0.8+ that means we're close to moderate Nino. If we do get a moderate Nino rather than a weak Nino, that means we maybe looking at La Nina next year rather than a neutral or a double dip Nino?

It's been near-record warm here in Vegas. As for a moderate Nino, we likely will get some weeklies above 1,0, but no trimonthlies IMO.

1) I agree that there likely will be some weeklies above +1.0. Now, with the last released trimonthly still being nearly 0.2 cooler than the average of the weeklies (though that difference shrunk some since the prior trimonthly) and considering that the weeklies normally have to spike several tenths above +1.0 to result in a trimonthly over +1.0, it wouldn't surprise me if a +1.4 or +1.5 weekly would be needed to get a +1.1+ trimonthly. I do think there is a nontrivial chance for this before winter is over though not likely.

2) In my mind, the chances for the first double winter continuous Nino since 1986-8 are increasing though I'm not actually predicting this yet. Not only do some models show this, but we are very overdue for a double Nino. If so, I'd lean toward the second one being stronger though two weak to low end moderates wouldn't be a shocker.

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,I saw this posted in another forum (Dr Masters blog) as the debate grows about when El Nino will be officially declared and I wanted your take on this. I say on December 4th monthly CPC update but then is this:

El Nino isn't declared til there is five consecutive, overlapping 3 month averages at or above 0.5. ASO (August/Sept/Oct) was 0.2...If all of Nov was warm enough to average SON to 0.5 or more and it stayed warm enough, an offical El Nino wouldn't be declared til the JFM numbers were in...Which doesn't happen til the beginning of April. April is the absolute earliest an offical El Nino would be declared by NOAA at this point.

Thats the discussion some have been asking. An official El Nino wont be put into the books until the 5 overlapping trimonthlies. However that doesn't mean the Cpc can't change the El Nino watch to El Nino warning stating the Nino conditions are occuring. In 2009 the 5 trimonthlies didn't occur until SON which meant the 5 trimonthlies until December, but there was sufficient evidence for them to call the Nino and warned it in July from the watch.

[cycloneye]

Things continue to warm at Nino 3.4 as I post this and it looks like it will continue for a while as the new warm pool at subsurface continues to grow.





Nino 3.4 gets to +1.0C.

[cycloneye]

The question of why CPC dropped to 58% the chance to get El Nino in the November monthly update is answered in this discussion by them,excerpt below. Read whole discussion at link.

We’re still not seeing much of an atmospheric response to the surface warming, so there is now concern that if El Niño conditions are achieved, they won’t persist for the five overlapping seasons required for this to be called an El Niño event. So, we’re still calling for the development of El Niño–just with less confidence.

http://www.climate.gov/news-features/bl ... 80%99-away

[HURRICANELONNY]

I see many have been reading and posting parts of Dr. Jeff masters. But I thought I'd post it anyways.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=2857