Texas Fall-2014

[NDG]

Latest runs of the GFS (even the parallel run) are losing the cold air by next Saturday, at least across SE TX. They are now showing a slow warm-up back to the 70s next week. Euro says "nope" and indicates freezing temps for SE TX next week. It's common for the GFS to lose the cold air in the 5-10 day time frame.

Euro seems to have backed off on the freezing temperatures for SE Texas next week, per the 12Z run.

You can't go too much by H85 temps on the euro, remember that Arctic air is shallow.

[Portastorm]

Denver's surface temp has dropped today from 64 to 22 in a matter of hours. Heh ... cold front-a-comin'.

[gatorcane]

Denver's surface temp has dropped today from 64 to 22 in a matter of hours. Heh ... cold front-a-comin'.

Here are the past few hours of obs from Buckley AFB/Aurora (KBKF) airport. I bolded the temperatures. 57F to 27F in 3 hours

10 12:58 N 21 10.00 Overcast and Breezy OVC015 27 18 69% 13 NA 29.80 1008.0
10 11:58 NE 17 G 26 10.00 Overcast OVC016 31 22 71% 20 NA 29.74 1005.4
10 10:58 NE 25 G 36 10.00 Mostly Cloudy and Breezy FEW012 BKN030 BKN110 36 27 63 36 68% 24 NA 29.64 1001.9
10 09:58 NE 36 G 46 10.00 Partly Cloudy and Windy FEW060 SCT110 SCT220 57 35 44% NA NA 29.54 995.8

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBKF.html

[Ralph's Weather]

The models seem to always lose things in the mid-range, but by using the ensembles and the teleconnections we can usually determine whether to expect the storm systems to show up again as we get closer to the event or if it was just wishful model runs. In this case it appears that we are still on track for some very cold air next week along with at least one significant storm.

[srainhoutx]

Possible Freeze Warning coming for portions of SE Texas mainly N of I-10 Thursday night/Friday Morning.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
240 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-110600-
HOUSTON-TRINITY-MADISON-WALKER-SAN JACINTO-POLK-BURLESON-BRAZOS-
WASHINGTON-GRIMES-MONTGOMERY-LIBERTY-COLORADO-AUSTIN-WALLER-
HARRIS-CHAMBERS-WHARTON-FORT BEND-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-BRAZORIA-
GALVESTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CROCKETT...TRINITY...GROVETON...
MADISONVILLE...HUNTSVILLE...SHEPHERD...COLDSPRING...LIVINGSTON...
CORRIGAN...ONALASKA...CALDWELL...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
COLLEGE STATION...BRYAN...BRENHAM...NAVASOTA...THE WOODLANDS...
CONROE...WILLIS...LIBERTY...CLEVELAND...DAYTON...COLUMBUS...
EAGLE LAKE...WEIMAR...SEALY...BELLVILLE...HEMPSTEAD...
PRAIRIE VIEW...BROOKSHIRE...HOUSTON...PASADENA...KATY...TOMBALL...
HUMBLE...WINNIE...MONT BELVIEU...ANAHUAC...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...
PIERCE...SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
EDNA...BAY CITY...PALACIOS...PEARLAND...LAKE JACKSON...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...FREEPORT...LEAGUE CITY...TEXAS CITY...FRIENDSWOOD...
GALVESTON
240 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS WEEK...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE COLLEGE STATION AREA AROUND 9 AM...THE
HOUSTON AREA AROUND NOON AND GALVESTON AROUND 3 PM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AT COLLEGE STATION WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY MID AFTERNOON. IN
HOUSTON...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR NEAR NOON WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S BY MID AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING...BE
PREPARED FOR A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE NORMAL HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IN THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO WARM INTO THE MID 50S.

THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AREAS NORTH OF I-10
COULD EXPERIENCE SEVERAL HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32
DEGREES. A FREEZE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS ON FRIDAY MORNING.

THE UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE COAST LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.

[gatorcane]

This low here that the 12Z ECMWF is showing by days 9 and 10 could be wintry event situation with all the cold air around. It's in the long-range though:

216 hours:


240 hours:


Temperature anomalies at 240 hours:

[Rgv20]

Afternoon Discussion NWS Brownsville......Winter is Coming!

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...FORECAST ISSUE OF THE DAY
WILL BE THE MARKED DOWNTURN IN TEMPERATURES PROGGED BY THE NEW MODEL
DATA FOR PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BLENDED THE NAM AND
GFS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO WEIGHT MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE NAM.
THOUGH THE NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER...IT HAS PERFORMED WELL IN THESE
SITUATIONS. AFTER 24 HOURS WENT BACK TO THE SUPERBLEND. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE MARKED DOWN 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GET UP TO 5 DEGREES SHAVED OFF.
COLDER AIR NEAR THE SURFACE IS SOMETIMES NOT RESOLVED AS QUICKLY BY
THE MODELS AND AN ADJUSTMENT IS NOW NECESSARY. VERY COLD CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIR IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS AS
WE WRITE... BRINGING WINTRY WEATHER TO THOSE AREAS. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO REACH DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RGV TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
THE TEMPS THAT WE SEE FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY THROUGH FIRST LIGHT
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE HIGHEST OF WHAT WILL BE AN ABRUPTLY DIFFERENT
DAY THAN TUE. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY UNDER
LOW OVERCAST SKIES...BUT MAY BRIEFLY STABILIZE BY MID AFTERNOON
BEFORE BEGINNING TO DECREASE AGAIN. MAX TEMPS DURING THE DAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 50S
ALONG THE COAST...BUT REMEMBER...THESE HIGHS WILL BE JUST ABOUT THE
SAME AS THE TEMPS OF TUESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL WEDNESDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MDT...AND DRIVEN IN PART BY ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER A SHALLOW COLD LAYER TO 850 MB OR 5 KFT. AND THE LOWER VALLEY
COULD SEE A HALF AN INCH FOR THE DAY...WITH AREAS FARTHER INLAND
LIKELY SEEING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE. MOST OF THE RAIN OVER THE CWA WILL ACCUMULATE ON WEDNESDAY.
THOUGH LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND EVEN FRIDAY...IT
WILL BE JUST THAT... LIGHT RAIN. HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE TO
THE EAST OVER THE MARINE AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
DECREASE ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES AND WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 40S
EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER 50S ON THE ISLAND AND ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE MERCURY COULD BREAK BELOW 40 IN A FEW PLACES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE...OR WIND CHILL...WILL LIKELY BE BELOW 40
FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MOST INTERIOR AREAS.

[Portastorm]

Don't you love it when NWS mets interject humor in their AFDs?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
256 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

IT`S HERE, IT`S HERE, THE FRONT IS HERE! IN SPITE OF OUR BEST
EFFORTS TO PUSH BACK AGAINST IT...THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO ENTER
THE OK PANHANDLE AND SHOULD CLEAR THE SRN TX PANHANDLE BY 8 PM. WITH
IT, EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO 50 MPH, ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST,
AND OF COURSE, GOODBYE TO THE 80S.

OUR HARD FREEZE IS COMING TONIGHT (AND TOMORROW NIGHT AND THE NIGHT
AFTER THAT AND...WELL YOU GET THE POINT).

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES
REMAIN PREVALENT THIS WEEKEND...BUT SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARD A
BRIEF MODERATION OF TEMPS TOWARD 50 BY FRI AND SAT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR THE LATE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 20
PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THOSE
MAY BE HIGH.

SIMPSON

[weatherdude1108]

Denver's surface temp has dropped today from 64 to 22 in a matter of hours. Heh ... cold front-a-comin'.

Here are the past few hours of obs from Buckley AFB/Aurora (KBKF) airport. I bolded the temperatures. 57F to 27F in 3 hours

10 12:58 N 21 10.00 Overcast and Breezy OVC015 27 18 69% 13 NA 29.80 1008.0
10 11:58 NE 17 G 26 10.00 Overcast OVC016 31 22 71% 20 NA 29.74 1005.4
10 10:58 NE 25 G 36 10.00 Mostly Cloudy and Breezy FEW012 BKN030 BKN110 36 27 63 36 68% 24 NA 29.64 1001.9
10 09:58 NE 36 G 46 10.00 Partly Cloudy and Windy FEW060 SCT110 SCT220 57 35 44% NA NA 29.54 995.8

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBKF.html

That is 42 degrees in FOUR HOURS at the Denver airport. It dropped 23 degrees within the first hour after frontal passage
Makes me wonder how modified it will be when it gets down this way. That's a no-joke, no messing around, serious express train from the Arctic tundra front!

[gatorcane]

Current temps. I would say there is a cold front somewhere in there!

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth, the 2 meter temperatures are trending colder via the 18Z parallel GFS into Texas as a 1049mb Arctic High slides SE into NE Colorado on Thursday.

[Ralph's Weather]

For what it's worth, the 2 meter temperatures are trending colder via the 18Z parallel GFS into Texas as a 1049mb Arctic High slides SE into NE Colorado on Thursday.

-EPO does not disappoint

[ronyan]

NWS says we will hit 57 Wednesday and TWC has 60 as the high. Not sure either of those can happen with cloudy conditions and CAA going on.

[somethingfunny]

Is the front speeding up like normal? I had been hearing 6am FROPA and now I'm reading 3am. If you're working a late shift or something and you'll be away from home until 2am, I would be wary of the front timing and being the heavy coat just in case.

When that front gets here, we'll know it. Windchill may be in the 20s by sunrise.

[ronyan]

The front has reached Dalhart, they are 54F and dropping with N wind.

[ronyan]

Is the front speeding up like normal? I had been hearing 6am FROPA and now I'm reading 3am. If you're working a late shift or something and you'll be away from home until 2am, I would be wary of the front timing and being the heavy coat just in case.

When that front gets here, well know it. Windchill may be in the 20s by sunrise.

According to my admittedly unscientific measurements, the front has progressed South about 200 mi in the past 6 hours and is located near Dalhart, TX. This would put it in Dallas metro between 1-2am, faster if the front is speeding up.

On second thought this only factors in the straight South component of movement so 3am may be a good estimate for Dallas as it is further East.

[Rgv20]

Don't you love it when NWS mets interject humor in their AFDs?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
256 PM CST MON NOV 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

IT`S HERE, IT`S HERE, THE FRONT IS HERE! IN SPITE OF OUR BEST
EFFORTS TO PUSH BACK AGAINST IT...THE COLD FRONT IS ABOUT TO ENTER
THE OK PANHANDLE AND SHOULD CLEAR THE SRN TX PANHANDLE BY 8 PM. WITH
IT, EXPECT WINDS TO GUST TO 50 MPH, ISOLATED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST,
AND OF COURSE, GOODBYE TO THE 80S.

OUR HARD FREEZE IS COMING TONIGHT (AND TOMORROW NIGHT AND THE NIGHT
AFTER THAT AND...WELL YOU GET THE POINT).

DRY WEATHER SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH THE WEEK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES
REMAIN PREVALENT THIS WEEKEND...BUT SIGNS ARE POINTING TOWARD A
BRIEF MODERATION OF TEMPS TOWARD 50 BY FRI AND SAT FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AIR FOR THE LATE WEEKEND. HAVE LEFT 20
PERCENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THOSE
MAY BE HIGH.

SIMPSON

Looks like the guys in the NWS in Brownsville were in a good mood today lol

[Ntxw]

Euro weeklies are out. Cold and stormy. In the words of Joe Bastardi "storms and rumors of storms, from Dallas to DC."

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Euro weeklies are out. Cold and stormy. In the words of Joe Bastardi "storms and rumors of storms, from Dallas to DC."

[Ntxw]

Should be easy to see the front