Texas Fall-2014

[asd123]

:uarrow:

Figures ... the southern extent of the line stops just north of Travis County.

You just aren't wishing hard enough, Porta! Throw science out the window and wait for your clock to hit 11:11!

Oh yeah, iorange55! That's right ... well, I guess we all better get our wishing in tonight and wish in those multiple Texas winter storms!

Wxman57 will no doubt be wishing the opposite.

Then don't show him this

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Parallel GFS shows another arctic front on Thursday next week lol

[TheProfessor]

And the Parallel GFS has a lot of that snow falling before Thursday so if that verified then there would probably very little modification to the air.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

:uarrow: And the Parallel GFS has a lot of that snow falling before Thursday so if that verified then there would probably very little modification to the air.

Yep, the way its trending, i may have a reason to get excited here in Houston.

[gboudx]

From Steve McCauley, but I'm with you fellas on snow potential

I can report that the latest European Model has come out, and it has completely backed off on snow for north Texas (why it was going for so much snow in the first place is still a mystery). It agrees with all other models now: we will just see a little batch of fast-moving, wimpy rain showers that will scoot west to east across north Texas on Saturday.

[Ntxw]

Regarding freezes, lets see if we can start faster than last year. November 2013 had 5 freezes and using the GFS I count 7 freezes through next week for DFW, a couple are marginal so anywhere from 4-7 is likely. 7 is 6th spot and 12 is the most for November.

[TheProfessor]

So if the 18z Parallel GFS Verified, Has there ever been that large of a snow pack during the month of November?

[Ntxw]

So if the 18z Parallel GFS Verified, Has there ever been that large of a snow pack during the month of November?

1976 and 1937. In 1937 there was 9 inches of snow as far south as Central Texas (Austin). If we're talking US as a whole there are other years but will require extensive digging. 1993 (leon lett) and 1995 probably was pretty extensive as well more recently. 2000 is the coldest November on record during the satellite era but im not sure on snow cover.

[TheProfessor]

That run also had a quite a bit of liquid precip to play with for North and Northeast Texas.

[Ntxw]

Regarding the GFS and the Parallel run, for this arctic blast some interesting things. Parallel seems to overdid the HP a little bit with 1055+ but it was correct a 1050+ was coming down while the GFS was lackluster last week. The OP GFS had our lows tonight in the low 40s and that's clearly going to bust, freeze and hard freeze coming and had lows this coming few days in the mid 30s from last Friday even as close as Sunday it had 40s.

So while I don't favor the view of the Parallel, it seems these upgrades gives it a slightly better handle on low level cold than the GFS OP. The Parallel at times seems to side with the Euro more often with it's runs.

[asd123]

So if the 18z Parallel GFS Verified, Has there ever been that large of a snow pack during the month of November?

Tropical Tidbits took away the 2m temp parameter for the Parallel GFS, so I really can't tell if the snow will all stick for the entire 240 hours. But I can tell you that the map is TOTAL SNOWFALL. This means that at (for example hour 100 might see a snowstorm, snow might melt, and then towards the end more snow.) Those amounts don't necessarily mean the snow is on the ground at once. The map can be deceiving if not looked at correctly. At first I too thought that the snow pack extends into southern central Texas with an 18 inch snowpack in nw Texas.

[northjaxpro]

Regarding the GFS and the Parallel run, for this arctic blast some interesting things. Parallel seems to overdid the HP a little bit with 1055+ but it was correct a 1050+ was coming down while the GFS was lackluster last week. The OP GFS had our lows tonight in the low 40s and that's clearly going to bust, freeze and hard freeze coming and had lows this coming few days in the mid 30s from last Friday.

Just talked about the GFS Parallel over on the Florida Thread. I agree Ntwx that the GFS Parallel was correct with its analysis of the massive Arctic High. These Arctic air masses are so shallow that temps almost always go colder than forecasted on initial runs. I have been waiting to see the improved GFS Parallel for the winter season and how it will fare, and it seems the GFS Parallel has a good grip with this current arctic surge, at least in your region of the Southern Plains. It will be interesting all winter following it for sure.

[TheProfessor]

So if the 18z Parallel GFS Verified, Has there ever been that large of a snow pack during the month of November?

Tropical Tidbits took away the 2m temp parameter for the Parallel GFS, so I really can't tell if the snow will all stick for the entire 240 hours. But I can tell you that the map is TOTAL SNOWFALL. This means that at (for example hour 100 might see a snowstorm, snow might melt, and then towards the end more snow.) Those amounts don't necessarily mean the snow is on the ground at once. The map can be deceiving if not looked at correctly. At first I too thought that the snow pack extends into southern central Texas with an 18 inch snowpack in nw Texas.

I see what you mean, but under the weather pattern were in right now a lot of the places where the snow falls will struggle to make it to freezing for a high, and if that much snow fell then there's a good chance that it would keep those places that were hovering freezing to below freezing. But it was one run so we will have to take with a grain salt anyways.

[Ntxw]

Regarding the GFS and the Parallel run, for this arctic blast some interesting things. Parallel seems to overdid the HP a little bit with 1055+ but it was correct a 1050+ was coming down while the GFS was lackluster last week. The OP GFS had our lows tonight in the low 40s and that's clearly going to bust, freeze and hard freeze coming and had lows this coming few days in the mid 30s from last Friday.

Just talked about the GFS Parallel over on the Florida Thread. I agree Ntwx that the GFS Parallel was correct with its analysis of the massive Arctic High. These Arctic air masses are so shallow that temps almost always go colder than forecasted on initial runs. I have been waiting to see the improved GFS Parallel for the winter season and how it will fare, and it seems the GFS Parallel has a good grip with this current arctic surge, at least in your region of the Southern Plains. It will be interesting all winter following it for sure.

Yeah, regardless if we like it or not the GFS Parallel upgrade will be implemented next month into the GFS. Lets hope it ends up for the better!

[asd123]

Regarding the GFS and the Parallel run, for this arctic blast some interesting things. Parallel seems to overdid the HP a little bit with 1055+ but it was correct a 1050+ was coming down while the GFS was lackluster last week. The OP GFS had our lows tonight in the low 40s and that's clearly going to bust, freeze and hard freeze coming and had lows this coming few days in the mid 30s from last Friday.

Just talked about the GFS Parallel over on the Florida Thread. I agree Ntwx that the GFS Parallel was correct with its analysis of the massive Arctic High. These Arctic air masses are so shallow that temps almost always go colder than forecasted on initial runs. I have been waiting to see the improved GFS Parallel for the winter season and how it will fare, and it seems the GFS Parallel has a good grip with this current arctic surge, at least in your region of the Southern Plains. It will be interesting all winter following it for sure.

Yeah, regardless if we like it or not the GFS Parallel upgrade will be implemented next month into the GFS. Lets hope it ends up for the better!

I have confidence that it will be better; don't forget they're still working on the bugs and errors. I am very excited about the upgrade; they should correct the old GFS mistakes and biases. I am upset they keep on putting the release dates back. (First November then December 9th now December 17th)

[asd123]

So if the 18z Parallel GFS Verified, Has there ever been that large of a snow pack during the month of November?

Tropical Tidbits took away the 2m temp parameter for the Parallel GFS, so I really can't tell if the snow will all stick for the entire 240 hours. But I can tell you that the map is TOTAL SNOWFALL. This means that at (for example hour 100 might see a snowstorm, snow might melt, and then towards the end more snow.) Those amounts don't necessarily mean the snow is on the ground at once. The map can be deceiving if not looked at correctly. At first I too thought that the snow pack extends into southern central Texas with an 18 inch snowpack in nw Texas.

I see what you mean, but under the weather pattern were in right now a lot of the places where the snow falls will struggle to make it to freezing for a high, and if that much snow fell then there's a good chance that it would keep those places that were hovering freezing to below freezing. But it was one run so we will have to take with a grain salt anyways.

Yeah: The Parallel 18z GFS shows a snowstorm for Texas early next week and then late next week. That total snowfall map looks menacing for early November!

[Ntxw]

Just cold out there. If not for the date you would think it's mid December. Even with the warm days prior DFW is still running 3F below normal. With the next week to two weeks we're going to be in the top 10 coldest Novembers (maybe even top 5). Depending on how we finish off the month it will be interesting to see how cold this November will end up. Quite likely the coldest one since 2000. Last year had a cold November, however during the middle of the month we had upper 80s and made a dent to the average. Nothing remotely close this year.

[gatorcane]

24 hour temperature change, wow what a difference:

[Ntxw]

0z GFS is already looking more like the Parallel runs and ENS with digging western shortwave, it's still a little progressive but it's getting there. Get that shortwave to dig a little more and a better coastal trough and it will get interesting

[Ralph's Weather]

00Z PGFS does not show much moisture, but it sure is cold.