Florida Weather

[asd123]

Check out the GFS model and its ensemble: Central Florida seems to be in the mid 30's for ens and upper 30s for operational. Keep in mind this is 186 hours, a lot can change, it could even get colder!

GFS
Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits


GFS ENS:
Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits


JMA around 6 degree 850 mb temp wed 11/18 morning for cfla. Since only 24 hr intervals are shown, look at the day before (hour 168 12z today run) and the day after (hour 192). You can probably deduce from between the two intervals that on Tuesday 8pm and wed 12 am (not on model, between 168 and 192) that the 850 mb will be cold around 5. These intervals (tues 8pm, wed 12 am) that are not on the model will have more of an effect on wed morn temp than the 850 mb forecast for wed morn. Hour 192, you can see that the movement of the 850 mb cold swath is exit stage right.

[northjaxpro]

Good evening asd123. I talked about this time frame of 11/18 - 11/22 on the previous page to watch closely with a potential polar air intrusion possibly affecting the Florida peninsula. I too have been paying attention to the GFS as well. Still just over a week out, so I expect too see more changes as we progress in time. But, I think at least in my neck of the woods and across the rest of the northern peninsula, a possible freeze may be looming. Have to wait and see if the next arctic surge in this time frame will lower the heights to give Central and South FL some nice cool temps as well. I think by this upcoming weekend we should have some good idea on how it will evolve.

Another key factor is to see if we get some shortwave energy undercutting the arctic air dome dropping south and then east during the course of the the next week. The models are hinting at a possible potent storm system crossing through the Southern Plains and moving east-northeast by early next week. Should this materialize, we may get some snow cover over areas of the Southern Plains/ Mississippi Valley area and points northeast. This may help to keep the air mass from moderating too much next week as well.

[asd123]

:uarrow: Good evening asd123. I talked about this time frame of 11/18 - 11/22 on the previous page to watch closely with a potential polar air intrusion possibly affecting the Florida peninsula. I too have been paying attention to the GFS as well. Still just over a week out, so I expect too see more changes as we progress in time. But, I think at least in my neck of the woods and across the rest of the northern peninsula, a possible freeze may be looming. Have to wait and see if the next arctic surge in this time frame will lower the heights to give Central and South FL some nice cool temps as well. I think by this upcoming weekend we should have some good idea on how it will evolve.

Just curious, which model do you lean more towards, GFS or parallel? I noted on the previous page about a shocking discrepancy between the models: at one run parallel GFS was forecasting a freeze for cfla and GFS lower 60s! NDG said that p GFS overdoes stuff, which is shocking since the pGFS is essentially supposed to be the new and improved GFS running "parallel" to the old one.

Regarding the cold, the models (GFS and its ensembles, very good agreement), (JMA), and (GEM sort of) are really starting to hone in Tuesday and Wednesday morning for some really cold weather. If this next week is cold, wait till Thanksgiving when the effects of the Bering Sea Storm and the stratospheric warming will be felt. Maybe some 40s highs and 20s lows for cfla?

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Good evening asd123. I talked about this time frame of 11/18 - 11/22 on the previous page to watch closely with a potential polar air intrusion possibly affecting the Florida peninsula. I too have been paying attention to the GFS as well. Still just over a week out, so I expect too see more changes as we progress in time. But, I think at least in my neck of the woods and across the rest of the northern peninsula, a possible freeze may be looming. Have to wait and see if the next arctic surge in this time frame will lower the heights to give Central and South FL some nice cool temps as well. I think by this upcoming weekend we should have some good idea on how it will evolve.

Just curious, which model do you lean more towards, GFS or parallel? I noted on the previous page about a shocking discrepancy between the models: at one run parallel GFS was forecasting a freeze for cfla and GFS lower 60s! NDG said that p GFS overdoes stuff, which is shocking since the pGFS is essentially supposed to be the new and improved GFS running "parallel" to the old one.

I still have some skepticism with the parallel GFS. Now, that's not to say I would completely discount it however. It's too soon to really gauge how the parallel GFS will do, but we will find out very soon with the cold weather pattern we may have setting up, at least for the next couple of weeks potentially.

[NDG]

I don't know if I can believe the GFS or the GFS ensembles bringing down the 30s for lows across central FL for Wednesday morning, last night's run it was showing for those temps to come Tuesday morning then it sort of dropped it on its 12z run. Now the 18z run shows 30s again but for Wednesday morning instead of Tuesday morning like it was showing last night. It has to become consistent before I would put any stock to that range of its forecast.
Regarding its Parallel upgraded version it has been out the window from its medium range to long range forecast for the most part, IMO.

[asd123]

I don't know if I can believe the GFS or the GFS ensembles bringing down the 30s for lows across central FL for Wednesday morning, last night's run it was showing for those temps to come Tuesday morning then it sort of dropped it on its 12z run. Now the 18z run shows 30s again but for Wednesday morning instead of Tuesday morning like it was showing last night. It has to become consistent before I would put any stock to that range of its forecast.
Regarding its Parallel upgraded version it has been out the window from its medium range to long range forecast for the most part, IMO.

Considering it's the long range, you must expect flipping and flopping from what day the model expects the coldest. It might be deciding whether the big cold is Tuesday or Wednesday, but it has latched onto the idea that one of those days (Tuesday and Wednesday will have cold weather). BTW GFS shows mid to upper 30s for wed morning, mid 40s Tuesday morning. ENS: low 40s Tuesday morning, mid 30s wed morning.

Bottom line: coldest nights might shift from run to run, but the general idea that the models are hinting are the same: cold weather is on the way, possibly even colder as we get closer. also Tuesday morning AND Wednesday are forecasted to be cold.

Don't forget about the 6 degree 850 mb temp forecasted by the JMA.

I haven't been really able to compare the Parallel GFS; maybe someone can tell me about its performance? If the Parallel GFS is bad and poor, you shouldn't be so quick to judge it as the GFS parallel is only experimental; bugs, issues and biases are probably being worked out before it launches and replaces the GFS. Everyone should take the Parallel GFS with a grain of salt.

[gatorcane]

I don't know what to think about the parallel GFS but I basically have been looking more at the ECMWF for these potential cold outbreaks in the medium and long-range as it the most consistent and reliable model in my opinion. It doesn't show anything as cold as the parallel GFS for Florida, though it is showing some colder anomalies intruding into Florida for next Wed.

[NDG]

Last night's 0z Euro came on board with the GFS and GFS ensembles of the trough coming in sharper early next week with the H85 0 deg temp isotherm making it all the way down to north FL, so perhaps 30s may make it all the way down to Orlando.
Talking about the Euro, I have noticed it has been very noticeable inconsistent from run to run on its 6-10 day range most times during the last month or two at least.

[asd123]

Last night's 0z Euro came on board with the GFS and GFS ensembles of the trough coming in sharper early next week with the H85 0 deg temp isotherm making it all the way down to north FL, so perhaps 30s may make it all the way down to Orlando.
Talking about the Euro, I have noticed it has been very noticeable inconsistent from run to run on its 6-10 day range most times during the last month or two at least.

Yeah I noticed the Euro's switch to be more in line with the GFS. GFS is forecasting low 30's cfla. Euro low to upper 30s (32-39). To see Euro detailed go to http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ then clear the clutter by unchecking appropriate boxes, then go to model data in the list, select model data, then select the tools symbol right next to model data, then select appropriate parameters. It's really easy and it's the best free version of the Euro available on the Internet.

Anyways, on the Wunderground Euro you can see hour 180 very cold for Florida, 32-39 for cfla, pockets of panhandle 18-25

[northjaxpro]

Yep, the EURO is coming in line with the GFS for next week. If the trend continues, could potentially see the season's first major freeze for the northern peninsula and panhandle (temps into the 20s possible) and 30s dipping into the central peninsula.

Things still can change, but definitely some agreement now coming into view from the models of a significant cold spell potentially affecting the state as a whole next week.

[Sanibel]

-25 in Wyoming right now.


More winter temperatures occurring in the shoulder seasons.

[gatorcane]

12Z Parallel GFS coming quite cold for Florida (and the entire Eastern United States), look at those anomalies!

[psyclone]

The CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks are not nearly so bullish on extreme cold and I agree. a more likely scenario is the more extreme cold anomalies remain off to the north and we get brushed by the colder air...in the near term a brief chill down can be expected Friday and Saturday followed by another shot next week. across the great lakes winter has arrived early this year. glad to be down here..

[NDG]

Parts of east central FL and SE FL may luck out with next week's Arctic blast if the trough after digging across the south central US/MS River Valley starts lifting northward as its axis pushes eastward, it also looks to be slightly positive tilted, according to today's 12z Euro.
I have noticed central and south FL see the coldest temps when the trough digs southward at the same longitude FL is in or slightly eastward.

[NDG]

Last night's 0z Euro came on board with the GFS and GFS ensembles of the trough coming in sharper early next week with the H85 0 deg temp isotherm making it all the way down to north FL, so perhaps 30s may make it all the way down to Orlando.
Talking about the Euro, I have noticed it has been very noticeable inconsistent from run to run on its 6-10 day range most times during the last month or two at least.

Yeah I noticed the Euro's switch to be more in line with the GFS. GFS is forecasting low 30's cfla. Euro low to upper 30s (32-39). To see Euro detailed go to http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ then clear the clutter by unchecking appropriate boxes, then go to model data in the list, select model data, then select the tools symbol right next to model data, then select appropriate parameters. It's really easy and it's the best free version of the Euro available on the Internet.

Anyways, on the Wunderground Euro you can see hour 180 very cold for Florida, 32-39 for cfla, pockets of panhandle 18-25

Nice, I had never noticed that they had the ECMWF model on their wundermap!!

BTW, 12z Euro is not as cold as last night's run. Very important when the trough digs southward how close it is to FL, like I mentioned earlier.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the NAO is trying to go into Negative territory so we will see how that could influence where the troughs deepen. Also the AO has been really Negative and is expected to stay Negative as of right now for the next 2 weeks at least.

NAO Forecast (As of Wed. November 12th):


AO Forecast (As of Wed. November 12th):


PNA Forecast (As of Wed. November 12th):

[TheStormExpert]

THIS JUST IN!: The 18z GFS has trended colder again!


(Hr. 144)


(Hr. 162)



VS. 12z Run.


(Hr. 150)


(Hr. 168)

[asd123]

GFS just dropped colder, forecasting a freeze for Orlando Wednesday morning and a near freeze Thursday morning. This is only Orlando. Widespread freeze forecasted for Central Florida Wednesday and Thursday morning by the GFS.

ECWMF has trended toward the GFS last couple of runs, but is still a little warmer than the GFS, but considering GFS was first to latch on to this cold outlook, I will lean with the GFS on this one.

These pictures just speak for themselves wow:

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits


Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits


GFS also for Wednesday and Thursday forecasting mid to upper 50s for highs for cfla.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I am also on the GFS with this next cold spell. GFS has had this next cold air intrusion analyzed quite well going back several days, and EURO is gradually catching up to it. Observing the latest model runs from GFS, I would not be surprised to see a potential of hard freeze across portions of the northern peninsula by this time next week. My confidence is growing now that this may come close to this solution.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the trend continues colder with time. Another potential factor that I am watching carefully is the potential storm system which is forecast to develop Sunday over the Lower MS Valley region and head northeast. GFS is hinting at a possible decent snow event along the track of the storm system from the Southern Plains through the MS Valley and TN Valley and points northeast. There may be a snowpack in this potential storm's aftermath that would certainly help prevent fast moderation of the cold arctic air mass as it moves into the Deep South next week. Also, after checking the latest GFS run, 500 mb heights really drop considerably as the upper trough really amplifies over the entire Eastern CONUS beginning on Tuesday (11/18).

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow:

Yeah, I am also on the GFS with this next cold spell. GFS has had this next cold air intrusion analyzed quite well going back several days, and EURO is gradually catching up to it. Observing the latest model runs from GFS, I would not be surprised to see a potential of hard freeze across portions of the northern peninsula by this time next week. My confidence is growing now that this may come close to this solution.

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the trend continues colder with time. Another potential factor that I am watching carefully is the potential storm system which is forecast to develop Sunday over the Lower MS Valley region and head northeast. GFS is hinting at a possible decent snow event along the track of the storm system from the Southern Plains through the MS Valley and TN Valley and points northeast. There may be a snowpack in this potential storm's aftermath that would certainly help prevent fast moderation of the cold arctic air mass as it moves into the Deep South next week. Also, after checking the latest GFS run, 500 mb heights really drop considerably as the upper trough really amplifies over the entire Eastern CONUS beginning on Tuesday (11/18).

Add to that the NAO attempting to go Negative as well as the Negative AO. Though the Euro backed off a little on it's 12z run this afternoon.