Texas Fall-2014

[JDawg512]

I'm definitely not holding my breath for snow here, though it would be cool if it did.

The biggest downside to this upcoming freeze is my tomato and pepper plants that made it through the summer are producing but unfortunately are not ripe just yet. I can probably pick the tomatoes and some of the biggest peppers and they'll ripen anyways. I kinda wish I set up a greenhouse tent. Owell time to prepare for the winter veggies.

[Ralph's Weather]

Another great discussion by Cavanaugh this morning for FWD. He is not bullish on precip this weekend as moisture will be very limited especially in the cold air behind Sunday's front.

[Ntxw]

GFS/Parallel continues to get wetter as least through last nights runs (still very cold). Euro is kind of wet but a bit warmer. We'll be within 100 hours tomorrow.

Freeze number 1 for DFW

[Ralph's Weather]

The GFS and the PGFS are almost identical showing 1-2" of snow across northern TX on Sunday followed by temps in the teens by Monday morning. The other free models I can see do not seem to show much of anything, but the consistency of the PGFS and now the GFS has to be respected. If the Euro comes on board we will really be talking.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Freeze Watch issued for northern 1/3rd of SE TX for Thursday morning for the counties of: Houston, Trinity, Walker, Madison, Brazos, Grimes, and Burleson.



Freeze Watch and Warning likely to be required for larger area of SE TX for Friday morning.

Arctic boundary has lived up to its hype with 500am freezing line from roughly Dallas to NW of Austin where skies have cleared overnight, yet winds have remained strong resulting in an advective freeze. Over SE TX, the NW half of the region has cleared while the central and southern counties remain locked in under cloud cover, yet temperatures have still fallen into the low to mid 40’s for nearly all locations due to cold air advection. Will hold on to the clouds today, if not show an increase in sky cover which will result in very little temperature recovery. Many sites will stay in the 40’s all day with gusty N winds.

Troubles begin tonight, especially with the temperature forecast. Fast moving mid level disturbance moves quickly in from the west and helps energize the weak isentropic lift over the surface cold dome. Nearly all models are generating light QPF, but I have my doubts given an extremely dry sub cloud layer. Soundings would support some sleet, but again do not think anything is going to make it to the surface. Bigger problem is what affect will increased mid level clouds have on temperatures Thursday morning. Upstream cold air advection will continue and the freezing line will move southward this evening likely approaching our NW counties overnight. Hard to answer is the cold air advection will be enough to offset the warming of the cloud deck allowing an advective freeze into the northern counties of the area. Hence the freeze watch for Thursday morning.

Clouds look to clear late Thursday after another very cold day with highs again in the 40’s. If clouds clear Thursday evening, widespread freezing conditions will be likely Friday morning along and north of I-10 with some areas below freezing for 4-7 hours and falling into the upper 20’s. Current guidance shows a freeze at the “urban” IAH site and well below freezing at Conroe “normally cold” and College Station. Freeze Watch will need to be required for Thursday night for areas north of I-10 and then see on Thursday how clouds attempt to clear to determine actual lows for Friday morning. At this point protections for a widespread light freeze north of I-10 for Friday morning should be made, but I stress that low temperature forecasts Friday morning hinge on cloud cover.

Weekend:
Rapid increase in moisture will occur on Saturday as strong short wave moves across TX. Coastal low is forced near the lower TX coast Saturday morning and moves NE to ENE during the day into Saturday night. Strong lift comes to bear over the surface cold air mass in place resulted in a rapid increase in cloud cover and developing light rain/showers by Saturday afternoon. Onset timing of rainfall is still in question, but it will take some time to saturate the very dry low levels. Warm front will approach the coast and possibly move inland late Saturday night with the threat of strong thunderstorms over the coastal counties and the Gulf waters with widespread rainfall inland.

System is fairly quick moving and will exit to the east on Sunday afternoon, but drag another strong cold front through the region with move very cold mid November air. Might be dealing with another freeze potential early next week.

[CaptinCrunch]

For those North Central Texas folks that haven't visited Steve McCauley's facebook page yet it's worth a follow. Steve McCauley was the lead Meteorologist at WFAA and has some great discussions about NTX weather.

https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mcc ... le_browser

[Tireman4]

Yep Capn...He is awesome. I agree

[gboudx]

You don't need a FB account to read his page either, which I like because I don't have a FB account. Steve has not been bullish on any wintry precip this weekend as his Stat Model doesn't support it. I thought Delkus was the lead Met at WFAA when Troy Dungan retired?

[TheProfessor]

Yes Delkus was and I'm pretty sure still is the head meteorologist at WFAA.

[ouamber]

12Z P-GFS @102 Hours

[ronyan]

There are differences in initialization of the HP between the 12z PGFS and GFS.

GFS has the high center over western Montana, while the parallel run has the high over central/eastern Wyoming @ 1053mb.

Looking at observations, the parallel run has a better handle on it. Pressures are highest in WY and are running 1053mb+ at a few stations. Huge HP for this time of year now anchored in the states.

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12Z PGFS is still showing up to 2".



The GFS is less but still something.



The Euro does not seem to show anything down here.

[Ralph's Weather]

There are differences in initialization of the HP between the 12z PGFS and GFS.

GFS has the high center over western Montana, while the parallel run has the high over central/eastern Wyoming @ 1053mb.

Looking at observations, the parallel run has a better handle on it. Pressures are highest in WY and are running 1053mb+ at a few stations. Huge HP for this time of year now anchored in the states.

I have been pretty impressed with the PGFS it has been the most accurate and consistent model with the current air mass and the weekend storm.

[northjaxpro]

I posted last night on the previous page of this thread and agreed with Ntwx on how well the GFS Parallel has performed with this current arctic outbreak over the Plains and Intermountain West. The GFS from previous runs earler in the week had analyzed 1050+ Arctic High and that has pretty much verified. I hope this is a good trend of the new and improved GFS in terms of performance as we enter the winter months ahead.

[wxman57]

00Z EC has a trace of snow down to about Wichita Falls, TX on Sunday. It has 3-6" in central to eastern KS on Saturday.

[Texas Snowman]

GFS/Parallel continues to get wetter as least through last nights runs (still very cold). Euro is kind of wet but a bit warmer. We'll be within 100 hours tomorrow.

Freeze number 1 for DFW

First of many I would presume.

Three things I'm curious about going forward:

1. How many freezes does DFW get this winter?
2. Does Portastorm get his long anticipated snowfall?
3. Do we break the record for number of pages in the Texas Winter 2014-15 thread?

[Texas Snowman]

FYI, I noticed on the NWS site that today is WINTER WEATHER AWARENESS DAY in Texas.

[Texas Snowman]

BTW, we bottomed out at 30 degrees this morning here in Denison. Stayed at or below freezing for six hours overnight.

And here at high noon, it is only 35 degrees on Nov. 12th with a forecasted high of 39.

Wow! Perfect bike riding weather, don't you think?

[aggiecutter]

Latest snowfall projections from the 12z GFS:

[CaptinCrunch]

Here's a little something to think about. It's currently 21F degrees in Barrow AK, and it's currently 41F degrees in DTN FTW. That's a 20F degree difference over 3417 miles.