Texas Fall-2014

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is predicting 29F at Bush airport (IAH) on Tuesday morning as the second Arctic high settles in over TX. Fine with me, as I have Nov. 21st as the first freeze date in our office contest and no one has an earlier date. I've been trying to win one of these contests for 15+ years. Almost won the first cold front contest but the required 49F dew point at IAH didn't occur until 1 hour too late for me to win.

So, to help things along I've temporarily change my avatar to something that might encourage the cold air this weekend & early next week.

[TheProfessor]

NWS FWD doesn't seem to be buying the models that are showing snow because of a lack of moisture, it's probably going to take the Euro and both GFS to show more moisture before they put any chances of precip in the forecast.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I know this isn't the deep south forum but since its dead in there will post here. Its cold. Sitting at 50* here in south BR and its now raining making it feel even worse. The high was supposed to be 61 today, don't think we're getting there

[Ralph's Weather]

NWS FWD doesn't seem to be buying the models that are showing snow because of a lack of moisture, it's probably going to take the Euro and both GFS to show more moisture before they put any chances of precip in the forecast.

It will be interesting to watch which model ends up being correct between the PGFS and the Euro. It is really hard to know right now as the PGFS has been very consistent and accurate on the current situation, but the Euro has the track record though it lacks consistency with its predictions. My current thoughts are snow in the Panhandle then flurries and maybe very light snow in N TX then maybe a band of a bit heavier snow in NE TX as the precip ends.

[iorange55]

NWS FWD doesn't seem to be buying the models that are showing snow because of a lack of moisture, it's probably going to take the Euro and both GFS to show more moisture before they put any chances of precip in the forecast.

Yeah, I don't blame them. We'll see what the models spit out tonight.

The wind today makes it feel quite uncomfortable outside. My mind/heart was prepared for this cold snap, but my hands, nose and feet were not.

[CaptinCrunch]

Not to lose site of things, but this polar plunge that has been felt from North Dakota to South Texas has been the result of what was Nuri and not a weather pattern change. How much if any could (Nuri) play into our winter weather pattern?

[weatherdude1108]

Not to lose site of things, but this polar plunge that has been felt from North Dakota to South Texas has been the result of what was Huri and not a weather pattern change. How much if any could (Nuri) play into our winter weather pattern?

Good point!

[Ralph's Weather]

Not to lose site of things, but this polar plunge that has been felt from North Dakota to South Texas has been the result of what was Huri and not a weather pattern change. How much if any could (Nuri) play into our winter weather pattern?

I think we were in for a pattern change regardless, but Nuri intensifies that change greatly. The ripple effects of Nuri will be felt for a good while.

[TheProfessor]

yes, I believe the pattern was setting its self up when the AO and NAO began tanking in October.

[gboudx]

Bastardi has an interesting 15 min video on weatherbell.com for anyone interested. The 1st 11 mins is spent chastising media folks over the "polar vortex" hype, so you could skip to about the 9 or 11 min mark.

[Portastorm]

I know this isn't the deep south forum but since its dead in there will post here. Its cold. Sitting at 50* here in south BR and its now raining making it feel even worse. The high was supposed to be 61 today, don't think we're getting there

Raw day in the bayou, eh?! Good day for a nice, delicious, hot pot of gumbo!

You're always welcome over here. As we talked about last winter season, a lot of what happens in your area during winter tends to happen in our area a day or two before that.

[cigtyme]

Thanks for letting us Cajuns post here

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS is predicting 29F at Bush airport (IAH) on Tuesday morning as the second Arctic high settles in over TX. Fine with me, as I have Nov. 21st as the first freeze date in our office contest and no one has an earlier date. I've been trying to win one of these contests for 15+ years. Almost won the first cold front contest but the required 49F dew point at IAH didn't occur until 1 hour too late for me to win.

So, to help things along I've temporarily change my avatar to something that might encourage the cold air this weekend & early next week.

Nice new avatar..."snow miser!"

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12Z GFS is predicting 29F at Bush airport (IAH) on Tuesday morning as the second Arctic high settles in over TX. Fine with me, as I have Nov. 21st as the first freeze date in our office contest and no one has an earlier date. I've been trying to win one of these contests for 15+ years. Almost won the first cold front contest but the required 49F dew point at IAH didn't occur until 1 hour too late for me to win.

So, to help things along I've temporarily change my avatar to something that might encourage the cold air this weekend & early next week.

I think you will get it Thursday night possibly. Second chance on Tuesday morning for sure

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

NWS FWD doesn't seem to be buying the models that are showing snow because of a lack of moisture, it's probably going to take the Euro and both GFS to show more moisture before they put any chances of precip in the forecast.

Another masterpiece by Cavanaugh, FWIW.

[Texas Snowman]

Portastorm, if the current weather - and model trends - keeps up, in hind sight, maybe you should have issued a "Late Fall" forecast for all of us winter weather enthusiasts.

Even Wxman57 is feeling the spirit of the winter season a bit early!

[ronyan]

Just wait until after Nov 21 and it's back to good ol' Heat Miser.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, if the current weather - and model trends - keeps up, in hind sight, maybe you should have issued a "Late Fall" forecast for all of us winter weather enthusiasts.

Even Wxman57 is feeling the spirit of the winter season a bit early!

Meh, he's just in it now for his office pool. Like ronyan said, give him a week or two and he'll be back to good, ol' Heat Miser. Once he wins that pool, he'll be wishing for 20-25 degrees ABOVE normal temps instead of below.

[dhweather]

NWS FWD doesn't seem to be buying the models that are showing snow because of a lack of moisture, it's probably going to take the Euro and both GFS to show more moisture before they put any chances of precip in the forecast.

Another masterpiece by Cavanaugh, FWIW.

Dennis gets picked on by other FWD mets for being so verbose, but most of the S2K community will read his work as the gospel.

[dhweather]

:uarrow:

Figures ... the southern extent of the line stops just north of Travis County.

There's the rainproof dome over my corner of Rockwall County, I'm sure it will keep snow out too.


Dear Santa, please send me a foot of rain over a week, and Porta a foot of snow over a week.