Texas Fall-2014

[iorange55]

Eh I don't think 6" is in play this time around, but I do think the models are struggling for whatever reason, like Orangeblood pointed out. IMO the gfs parallel is nailing it, not an abundance of moisture... But just enough lift, with the potential for mesoscale enhancement like the nws pointed out this morning.

Well said. That's a great explanation of where we stand at the moment. Still believe there will be enough to write a message to wxman57 on the windshield of my car.

[Ralph's Weather]

I am thinking my area has a decent chance at at least minor accumulations after dark Sunday. We may be a bit warmer than DFW, but there should be more moisture to work with. I am hoping for something like we got a couple Christmases ago when we were forecasted for minor accumulations after dark, but got a heavy burst during the afternoon and ended up with like 3 inches by the evening.

[SouthernMet]

Another hard freeze forecast for tonight, NWS has Keller getting down to 22. I don't know if it will get that cold, but another night in the 20's will help bring road/soil temps down a little bit more for Sunday...

Edit : 3pm & dfw still at a balmy 37..

[aggiecutter]

Little Rock, Arkansas received their earliest measurable snowfall since 1993 last night:

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z PGFS and GFS are not very promising as far as snow though the PGFS does show a tiny bit at the end. From the limited free version of the 12Z ECMWF it looks like it may be coming on though. 18Z NAM has some showers but looks to be too warm for much of anything. Overall nothing to get excited about from anything I looked at, but we still have time as these systems get analyzed more by the models.

[dhweather]

Oh for the days of CAT 5 IN THE GULF !!!!!





It IS this cold, it BETTER snow!

[Ralph's Weather]

FWD had another great discussion this afternoon.

[rw1984]

Somewhat off topic question. I have to fly from Beaumont-Port Arthur to Tulsa, OK for work. Was planning on flying up Sunday evening, but looking at the forecast I'm thinking I may be better flying out Monday morning. Any thoughts?

[Ntxw]

Ntx, what dynamics are you seeing ANOTHER SSW event? Or is it what was left over from the last one? Already seeing warming in the 10MB layer again?

Also my low here in SL was 35.5F. Temps really crashed with the rain.

I see warming being forecast from the top down in the stratosphere 10mb and above. The recent -AO dive was induced by the troposphere (Siberia) bottom up. In a way it's kind of easy to forecast given the second highest SAI advancement in October previously held by 2009. The top 5 years generally all had early SSW events that kicked off December. So it would make sense. We're going to keep seeing it repeat with -AO dives at least once a month.

This -AO showed us how it can be effective. With the NAO being weak, and the help of the EPO the -AO dumped cold air over North America. As Long as the Pacific cooperates we're in good shape.

[AggieSpirit]

Please post charts, graphs that non-meteorologist simpletons like me can understand when talking about GFS, stratospheric warming, snow chances for DFW, etc --- I am a visual learner.

[SouthernMet]

Please post charts, graphs that non-meteorologist simpletons like me can understand when talking about GFS, stratospheric warming, snow chances for DFW, etc --- I am a visual learner.

Just when it looked like models had shifted north & drier gfs parallel oddly back to what it was showing for about 3 days straight and this looks identical to a couple of yesterday's runs.

6z gfs parallel snow accumulations : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_15.png

Canadian & Euro also on board with light frozen precip. Right now models are favoring San Angelo/Abilene for the 1-3", looks like dusting for dfw.

[wxman57]

Somewhat off topic question. I have to fly from Beaumont-Port Arthur to Tulsa, OK for work. Was planning on flying up Sunday evening, but looking at the forecast I'm thinking I may be better flying out Monday morning. Any thoughts?

All I see is a chance for very light snow in Tulsa Sunday evening. That shouldn't be enough for any issues landing in Tulsa.

[srainhoutx]

No official freeze at IAH overnight so wxman57 has to wait for another chance on early Tuesday to win that office pool...

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like it bottomed out at 31.7 degrees at 3:18am according to my weather station at my place.
At 6:15 this morning, it has risen to 33.1 degrees.

The weather service admitted the models did a bad job of not accounting for expanding cloud coverage. I saw the clouds moving in last night from the north, and suspected they would play a factor with insulation. It was totally clear when I went to bed. Maybe EL NIÑO was a factor? Live and learn. I'm glad it didn't get to mid 20s. Not ready yet, especially if not snowing!
&&

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MANY OF THE MODELS DID A
VERY POOR JOB YESTERDAY AT ERODING THE CLOUD DECK. NOT ONLY DID
THE CLOUD DECK NOT COMPLETELY ERODE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...IT HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT...WITH NOW JUST
FAR NORTHEAST AREAS AND A POCKET OVER VAL VERDE CLEAR.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS HAS RESULTED IN WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPS THAN
WERE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED.

[Ntxw]

Hmm, a lot of mostly cloudy and overcast conditions rolled in overnight which prevented plunging of temps over the state. Didn't see that coming, was supposed to be clear.

Freeze number 3 for DFW

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah i thin k i hit 37 lol. Not even close. All good, ill take the moisture in the air for when its cold enough!

[Tireman4]

Yeah i thin k i hit 37 lol. Not even close. All good, ill take the moisture in the air for when its cold enough!

It hit at least 34 at Bush.....

[Ntxw]

NAM is trying, lets get us a stronger shortwave. Anyway man that air mass is cold, and deep on it. I think models will bust again across the conus temps late this weekend and early next week.

And that 'warmer' 6-10 days out they keep showing looks a little muted, low heights and storminess remains over Texas on ENS. I guess anything warmer than now counts!

[Texas Snowman]

Clouds didn't move in as quickly in Grayson County and we bottomed out at 25 degrees overnight.

Feels like early January outside this morning.

Now if only it will look like early January in a couple of days!

[CaptinCrunch]

It was 26 degrees this morning at the house, dogs wasn't to happy about going potty....lol