Caribbean - Central America Weather

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
443 AM AST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF THREE SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS WILL MOVE THROUGH A RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RE-BUILD OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...A RIDGE CONTINUES JUST NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. NORTHEASTWARD MIGRATING LOW
PRESSURES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH SATURDAY THEN MODERATE TRADE WINDS
WILL RETURN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SMALL SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
CARIBBEAN WATERS NORTH AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...BUT FEW ENTERED
PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS
DROPPED FROM OVER 2 INCHES TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES IN THE LAST 24
HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING
TO DRIER CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO. SHORT WAVES ALOFT
EARLY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE TO
SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS WILL ALSO A BAND OF LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PASSING THROUGH ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS A GENERAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT
LEVELS FROM THE SURFACE UP THROUGH 600 MB...BUT HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES MID AND UPPER LEVELS THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD AND DRIER
AIR RETURNS AFTER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS ALSO INDICATES SLIGHTLY
DIMINISHING THICKNESSES THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL LIKELY DROP
TEMPERATURES BY ONE OR AT MOST TWO DEGREES. TEMPERATURES AND
THICKNESSES RE-WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AT ALL TAF SITES. VCSH BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
STILL POSSIBLE UNTIL ARND 11/12Z. AFT 11/18Z-22Z MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
SCATTERED SHRA ARE FCST TO MOVE ACROSS OR NEAR TJMZ/TJBQ...THIS
ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...AFT 11/13Z...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FLOW BETWEEN 5
AND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL VERY GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
AS WINDS ALSO DIMINISH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
IN THE NEXT 8 DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 86 79 / 20 40 40 20
STT 82 81 81 80 / 20 20 20 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
252 PM AST TUE NOV 11 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN NEXT 36 HRS AS A
SHORTWAVE-TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA WED-THU. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN BUILDS FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS NEXT 36 HRS...
MODELS SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ON WED. MODELS THEN
SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THU THROUGH EARLY SAT BUT UPPER AIR
PATTERN LOOKS UNFAVORABLE WITH TROF AXIS EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI
AND AN OVERALL UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT SETTING UP OVR
THE AREA. THERE IS A SURGE IN TRADE WINDS FCST FOR SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS BUT OVERALL DON`T SEE ANYTHING IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS THAT
WOULD RESULT IN ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY. ANTICIPATING TEMPS
WILL COME DOWN FURTHER ON WED AND ESPECIALLY ON THU WITH A SLIGHT
REBOUND ON FRI AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH FRI THEN
STRENGTHEN SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 86 78 86 / 20 20 10 10
STT 80 81 80 80 / 10 20 20 20

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST WED NOV 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SECOND
WEAKER TROUGH IN NORTHERLY FLOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
TO EXTEND TO THE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FOLLOWING THURSDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST RIDGE WILL EXTEND OUT OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
FADES OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE LOCAL AREA AND INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEXT WEEK WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MOISTURE IS GENERALLY LACKING IN THE
MID LEVELS.

AT LOWER LEVELS...GRADIENTS WEAKENED OVER THE LOCAL AREA DUE TO
A LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST RETREATING TO THE NORTHEAST. THEY WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TRADE
WINDS ARE GENERATED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS MOVED FROM THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
LEAVING LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS WITH FEW SHOWERS MOVING OVER EASTERN
PUERTO RICO OR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. MIMIC ALSO NOTED HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MOVING OVER THE AREA ARND 12/00Z. SINCE
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW...SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY CONCENTRATED IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...WILL BE
LIMITED...BUT NOT ELIMINATED DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE MONA CHANNEL FROM THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. A BRIEF SHOT
OF MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD CLEAR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT MOISTURE REBOUNDS...AND EVEN
INCREASES...DURING THE DAY THURSDAY...SO BETTER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. AFTER THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING
OVER THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SHOWERS SCATTERED AND SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO A MINIMUM THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH VCSH BETWEEN EASTERN PR AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. BETWEEN 12/16Z-22Z...MOUNT OBSC AND SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
ALONG THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHWESTERN PR...AFFECTING MAINLY TJMZ/TJPS.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AFT 12/13Z...EASTERLY WINDS FLOW BETWEEN
5 AND 15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL GENERALLY DIMINISH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS WINDS WEAKEN. SEAS WILL REACH A MINIMUM...GENERALLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY REGAINING HEIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED BEFORE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 78 87 77 / 20 10 20 30
STT 87 77 87 80 / 20 20 20 50

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
249 PM AST WED NOV 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ESTABLISHING THU THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK UNDER BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
AND MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME BUT MOISTURE ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED FROM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT WHICH MAY YIELD SCT SHOWERS
OVER THE USVI AND ANEGADA PASSAGE. MODELS SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING
OVERALL THU THROUGH EARLY SUN...HOWEVER...PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE/RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT LOOKS
VERY UNFAVORABLE TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT MAINLY SCT
SHALLOW CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE
UNDER LIGHT TRADE WINDS. TRADE WINDS STRENGTHEN SAT AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO
BUILDING HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ATLC. MODELS SHOW AN OVERALL DRYING
TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK UNDER STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND FRESH TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH VCTS FOR TJMZ AND TJPS UNTIL AROUND 12/22Z. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED
OVER THE INTERIOR...WEST...AND SOUTHWEST PR WILL ALSO CAUSE MTN
OBSCURATIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT ABOUT
10-15 KTS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...WINDS BECOMING LIGHTER AFTER
12/13Z AND MAINLY DRY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT AND WINDS 10KT OR LESS THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.
WINDS STRENGTHEN SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MON WITH SPEEDS 15-20 KT.
SEAS BUILD 3-5 FT SAT AFTERNOON THEN TO 4-6 FT SUN AND MON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 77 87 / 0 10 20 50
STT 77 87 80 87 / 20 20 30 30

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
541 AM AST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH HAS CROSSED THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA AND WAS FOUND OVER CULEBRA THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AND A RIDGE BUILDING NORTHEAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA MONDAY WITH THE RIDGE IN THE
SAME GENERAL AREA TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL IT FADES THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER CUBA DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST
AND PASSES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON TUESDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
FORMS IN THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AND MOVES
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
QUITE WEAK EXCEPT ON SATURDAY AND THE FOLLOWING FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 1700 MILES NORTH OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS INDUCED TROUGHINESS AND REDUCED PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE LOCAL AREA WHILE BREAKING THE RIDGE LINE OF THE
SUB TROPICAL LOW ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NEAR 28 DEGREES NORTH
LATITUDE. A MID LATITUDE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND MIGRATES TO THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY
TUESDAY. EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FADED OVER MUCH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
SAINT CROIX SHOWERS WERE PRESENT SINCE MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH TROUGH
PASSAGE AT UPPER LEVELS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED FOR PUERTO RICO AND
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ANEGADA PASSAGE
WILL MOVE THROUGH PUERTO RICO DURING THE DAY AND ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY. A DRY SLOT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF IT AND
MOISTURE WILL REBOUND TO AROUND 1.6 INCHES DURING THE DAY TODAY.
NEVERTHELESS INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MODEST WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF MINUS
3.3. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND ELSEWHERE.

THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF SHOWERS WAS ALSO COMPLICATED BY DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE WRF AND THE NAM5 MODELS. THE WRF AND THE GFS FAVORED A
MORE SOUTHERLY PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW AT THE SURFACE...WHILE THE NAM SHOWED THE INFLUENCE OF THE EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT AND ABOVE 3 KFT THAT OCCUR AS THE TROUGH PASSES.
HAVE GONE WITH A COMBINATION OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE TOLERABLE AS FLOW WILL ALLOW CELLS TO MOVE AND DRIER MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONSTRAIN THE STRENGTH AND HEIGHT OF THE CONVECTION.

PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTINUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND AND
AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE THEREAFTER...RAINFALL VARIATIONS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THOSE CAUSED BY VARIATIONS IN THE LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE PRESENTED BY PASSING BANDS. A WEAK EASTERLY WAVE MAY PASS
ON FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
AND EASTERN PR EARLY IN THE MORNING AND BETWEEN 13/18-22Z...
SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL-WESTERN PR...IMPACTING MAINLY
TJMZ AND TJPS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE E TO NE AROUND 10 KT WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS AND GUSTY IN AND AROUND SHRA AFTER 13/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE GENERALLY TRANQUIL...THAT IS UP TO 4 FEET...WITH
THE LIGHTER WINDS...BUT AS WINDS INCREASE WITH THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENTS EXPECT UP TO 6 FEET BY SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 86 78 / 30 30 40 50
STT 86 80 87 79 / 40 40 40 60

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
318 PM AST THU NOV 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...TUTT ALOFT CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
LEEWARDS AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA...AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PLACE THE
REGION ON THE CONVERGENT AND CONSEQUENTLY THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE LOW LEVELS....HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHIFTING FURTHER EASTWARDS AND A
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL WEAKEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
ANOTHER STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS TO THEN BUILD EASTWARDS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AND THUS INCREASE
THE EASTERLY TRADES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CAP INVERSION AND NO SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
ADVECTION TODAY HAS SO FAR LIMITED AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EARLIER
TJSJ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED DECREASING PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NOW DOWN TO NEAR 1.27 INCHES OF SO.
HOWEVER...STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING BUT
NO WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. FEW SHOWERS WERE ALSO NOTED
OVER PARTS OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BUT SO FAR NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WERE NOTED.

EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE NORTH AND EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...BUT
ACTIVITY WILL BE OF SHORT DURATION. LOCAL AND DIURNAL EFFECTS ON
FRIDAY MAY LEAD TO SO SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO MAINLY PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. LESSER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND. LOCAL PRESSURE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TO TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK TO BRING MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
VCSH IS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND USVI THROUGH
TONIGHT. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR TJPS AND TJMZ AS POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOP AFTER 13/19Z. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE EAST AT AROUND 10 KT
WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...DECREASING AND BECOMING VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL SEAS AND LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY THAT TIME
PRECAUTION STATEMENTS OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 85 / 30 30 30 30
STT 76 87 78 88 / 30 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
543 AM AST FRI NOV 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR SECTION OF PUERTO RICO. PASSING SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

IN THE LONG TERM...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP TIGHTEN THE
LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THUS INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADES
ONCE AGAIN. AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
TJMZ BETWEEN 14/18Z-21Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. EAST WINDS OF
10-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL150.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL SEAS AND LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY THAT TIME
PRECAUTION STATEMENTS OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 85 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 87 75 88 78 / 30 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI NOV 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST TODAY AND SATURDAY. THIS SETUP WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY WHEN THE TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
TYPICAL PATTERN OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS PR AND PASSING
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND USVI EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...PASSING SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...SOME OF THEM BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE USVI AND EASTERN PR.
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND INTO
SOME PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN PR. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

THE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
START TO SLOWLY PICK UP LATE SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO
THE NORTH NORTHEAST...ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERLY TRADES TO MOVE
INTO THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE EASTERN CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN AND MOVE WEST A
LITTLE...CAUSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE LOCAL
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN TERMS OF WEATHER...THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK PRETTY TYPICAL WITH
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS...USVI...AND EASTERN PR WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF PUERTO RICO.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FLYING AREA THROUGH
THE FORECAST PRD. FEW SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL CONT TO FROM MAINLY OVR
THE CENTRAL AND W PORTION OF THE MTN RANGE OF PR...AS WELL AS VCTY
TJMZ...TJBQ AND TJNR TIL 14/22Z. PASSING TRADE WND SHOWERS TO
AFFECT COASTAL WATERS EN ROUTE BTW E PR AND NRN LEEWARDS. FEW TCU
PSBL EN ROUTE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE CIRCUMNAVIGABLE. BRIEF MVFR
CONDS AND MTN TOP OBSC PSBL W/PASSING SHRA/ISOLD TSRA ACTIVITY.
EAST WND 10-20 KT BLO FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 15 KNOTS TODAY. FAIRLY
TRANQUIL SEAS AND LIGHT EASTERLY TRADES EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY THAT TIME
PRECAUTION STATEMENTS OR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST COASTAL WATERS FORECAST ISSUED BY THE
WFO SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 75 87 / 30 30 30 30
STT 77 88 78 88 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1006 PM AST FRI NOV 14 2014

.UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES WERE INTRODUCED TO FORECAST PACKAGE TO
MATCH CURRENT CONDITIONS.

UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE LOCAL AREA
UNDER RIDGE PATTERN TO THE WEST AND TROUGH PATTERN TO THE EAST.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST AND AWAY FROM OUR
LOCAL AREA DURING THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...RIDGE
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. IN FACT...
RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD MUCH OF NEXT WORK WEEK. A GENTLE TO MODERATE
EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY...BECOMING
MODERATE TO FRESH SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

WITHOUT MAJOR FORCING UNDER THIS EVOLVING PATTERN...AND COMBINED
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR NORMAL VALUES...CONTINUE TO EXPECT
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WITH
TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY SOME SHALLOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WEST PUERTO RICO.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
520 AM AST SAT NOV 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ONCE AGAIN...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME.
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TODAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND POSSIBLE
OVER NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. REST OF PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN A STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
TJMZ AND TJBQ BETWEEN 15/18Z-21Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN TJMZ AND TJBQ THIS AFTERNOON.
EAST WINDS OF 5-15 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 4 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 17 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 87 75 / 40 50 50 20
STT 87 78 88 79 / 50 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SAT NOV 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS MIDDLE LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF 15N IN THE
CARIBBEAN AND ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE LOWER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
AND BY LATE SUNDAY IT WILL PUSH DRIER AIR...PRECIPITABLE WATER SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONAL...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU.

FEWER SHOWERS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO TODAY AND STILL
FEWER IN FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE MOISTURE SHALLOWS. SHOWERS
TO STILL BE SCATTERED FOR WESTERN PR MOST DAYS BUT DRY AIR ABOVE
800 MB SHOULD PREVENT THUNDER. BRIEF TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL
MOST NIGHTS FOR EASTERN PR AND USVI...ESPECIALLY OVER WATER.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA THIS AFT OVR PR...MAINLY WEST
WI OBSCD MTNS TIL 21Z. VFR XPCTD THEREAFTER THO SCT SHRA WI PSBL BRF
MVFR XCP TJMZ/TMBQ. FEWER SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY AFT BUT CHC FOR TJMZ
AGAIN. E WINDS SFC-FL200 10-20 KT INCRG 12-25 KT SUN-MON.


&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE OF U.S. EAST COAST WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT AND TO CONTINUE AT
TIMES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. LONG FETCH SWELLS WILL INCREASE IN
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BUT THOSE WILL BE MUTED AS THEY ENCOUNTER
THE LEEWARDS. OUR INCREASING SEAS WILL LARGELY BE WIND WAVES AND
CHOPPY...PROBABLY REACHING 6 FT MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 86 / 50 50 20 20
STT 77 88 79 88 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
530 AM AST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION....SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WERE NOTED OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AFFECTED THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO...AND POSSIBLE OVER
NORTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO. REST OF PUERTO RICO WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY WITH ONLY SOME PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE MORNING HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL REMAIN AROUND 1.8 INCHES WITH MID LEVEL DRYING
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BUILDS NORTH AND EASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WORK WEEK...WHICH WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN A STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED...WITH TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING
THE LOCAL REGION FORM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA EXPECTED IN AND AROUND
TJMZ BETWEEN 16/18Z-21Z. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PR THIS AFTERNOON. EAST
WINDS OF 15-20 KT EXPECTED BELOW FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 87 77 88 78 / 30 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER JAMAICA
AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS IS HELPING
TO PRODUCE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND STABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. A
TUTT EXTENDS WEAKLY ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND WILL LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...
BEFORE BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHEN A TUTT
LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND EAST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN. EITHER WAY THIS TUTT WILL CONTINUE TO HELP ENHANCE THE
TRADE WIND SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
AREA HELPING TO TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND CREATE
A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAILED MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER TJSJ 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED PWAT VALUE
OF 1.92 INCHES. THIS WAS MAINLY DUE TO GOOD LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER AIR MASS NOW FILTERING ACROSS THE REGION FROM
THE EAST. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...STILL
A FEW POCKETS OF MOISTURE AROUND FOR SOME LOCALLY AND DIURNALLY
INDUCED SHOWERS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. AGAIN THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY
OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WHILE
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER SKIES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ONLY A FEW STREAMER
LIKE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MAINLY BETWEEN VIEQUES...CULEBRA
AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS.

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
TRANSPORTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS
IN THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. AS A RESULT EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS
OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIMITED
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAINLY OVER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AND WEST
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. EXPECT STREAMER LIKE CONVECTION AS THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL MOVE QUICKLY WESTWARD
LEAVING NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE ISLANDS.

THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TO LOOSEN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AND THE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION RELAXES....THEREBY LOOSENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS TO AGAIN REESTABLISH ITSELF NORTH OF THE REGION...TO ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE THE EASTERLY TRADES. IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT ONLY PERIODS
OF QUICK PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST REGION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY LIMITED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS EACH DAY.

AT THIS TIME..NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS WEATHER WILL BE
DOMINATED FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA AND
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT XCP PSBL BRF MVFR IN SHRA AT TJMZ LATE AFT AND
EVERYWHERE ELSE TONITE XCP TJBQ/TJPS. LTL CHG ON MON WHILE CURRENT
BREEZY CONDS WL OCCUR AGN MON. WINDS TO FL150 E 15-25 KT THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE RESPONDING TO THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER TRADE WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION. THE MOSTLY
WIND DRIVEN SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REACH 6 FT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FEET OR SO BY MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY CREATING CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITION. SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS SHOULD THEREFORE EXERCISE CAUTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 87 75 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 88 79 88 / 30 30 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1008 PM AST SUN NOV 16 2014

.UPDATE...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE USVI. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION
NO PRECIPITATION WAS DETECTED SO FAR THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE JUST OVER JAMAICA WILL REMAIN AS THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING A STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SURROUNDING WATERS AND LOCAL ISLANDS...INDUCING ISOLATED
PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND USVI OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO
EACH AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME..NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURE IS
FORECAST TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST MON NOV 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOWER AND MID LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF AREA WILL MIGRATE
TO NEAR 30N/50W BY LATE MON. IT WILL THEN SPIN THERE MOST OF THE
WEEK AND ROTATE GENERALLY DRY MARITIME POLAR AIR INTO THE ANTILLES
REGION. THIS REGIME ENDS FRI/SAT AS REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A COLD
FRONT ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE COMBINES WITH A VERY WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE THAT 00Z GFS SHOWS PASSING OVER USVI/PR VERY LATE FRI NIGHT
AND SAT.

BELOW SEASONAL PRECIPITABLE WATER TO PERSIST THIS WEEK UNTIL AT
LEAST THU NIGHT FRI THEN TO PEAK ON SAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BUT
SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL PASS OVER USVI/EASTERN PR EACH NIGHT WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP FOR WESTERN PR IN AFTERNOONS BUT
USUALLY WITHOUT THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
LOCAL AREA FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
SOME OF THEM AFFECTING THE LEEWARD AND USVI TERMINALS AS WELL AS
JSJ. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ BETWEEN 17/18Z-
21Z AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY FROM THE ENE AT
15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SCATTEROMETER AT 07Z THIS MORNING SHOWS WINDS RANGING
FROM 16 TO 19 KNOTS OVER SURROUNDING WATERS. WINDS ON THE HIGHER
SIDE IN THE CARIBBEAN BUT THE LEEWARDS ARE SHAVING THE SEAS DOWN A
BIT THERE. BUOY 41043 HAS REACHED 6.5 FT BUT BUOYS CLOSER TO SHORE
ARE STILL APPROACHING 5 FT...ALL WITH PERIODS OF ONLY 6 TO 8 SECONDS.
WINDS RISING A LITTLE AT TIMES TODAY AND WITH THE LONGER DURATION
SUGGEST 7 FT IS LIKELY FOR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE.
THAT ALONG WITH THE SHORT PERIOD SEAS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 77 87 75 / 20 20 20 10
STT 88 78 88 79 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST MON NOV 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL FORM A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY THAT WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL
EXTEND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEK THEN RETURN TO
THE BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND. MID LEVELS WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH SATURDAY UNTIL IT IS REPLACED BY ANOTHER
HIGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE
LOCAL AREA WITH SHALLOW EMBEDDED SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN STREAMING INTO EASTERN
PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL HEAVY SHOWERS ALSO HAVE
DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL. SHOWERS OVER LAND
WILL DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME SHALLOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW AND DAMPEN THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE
LUQUILLO RANGE AND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN COASTS OF PUERTO RICO.
SOME SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ALL SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEF AND PASSING IN CHARACTER. SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH A SLOW RECOVERY IN MOISTURE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER SUNDAY MOISTURE DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY
ALONG WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY. NO MAJOR FEATURES OR STRONG RAINFALL
EVENTS SHOULD BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 8 DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. OCNL PASSING -SHRA IN TRADE WINDS WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE USVI AND EASTERN PR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
EAST AT 10-15 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LLVL WINDS ABV FL010 WILL
RANGE FROM 15 TO 25 KT.

&&

.MARINE...AS FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA SEAS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TUESDAY AND AGAIN OVER THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 7 OR 8 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 75 86 / 40 40 10 20
STT 78 88 78 87 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE NOV 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS ABOUT TO FIND ITS SHORT TERM HOME
AROUND 30N/45W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS CUBA. COLD
FRONT FROM FL WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE BUT TO NOT GO AWAY THIS WEEK.
THIS IMPLIES THE STRONG TRADES HERE WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK TOO. SCATTEROMETER AT 07Z SHOWS 16-18 KT TRADES NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS AND AN AREA OF 20 KT IN CARRIBEAN SOUTH OF PR. 00Z GFS
STILL EXPECTS RELATIVELY DRY AIR TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH AND
INTO PR/USVI UNTIL A BAND OF MOISTURE MERGES WITH A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE TO ARRIVE ON SAT.

NEXT PATCH OF RELATIVELY HIGH MOISTURE WAS OVER NORTHERN LEEWARDS
AT 06Z AND GFS PUSHES IT TO CENTRAL PR BY 18Z TODAY...IN TIME TO
AID IN SOME CONVECTION FOR THE WEST. IT IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN TODAY IN WESTERN PR AND MAYBE A TSTORM OR
TWO LIKE MON...LITTLE DIFFERENCE EXPECTED IN CONVECTION ANY DAY
THROUGH FRI. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE NIGHTTIME
FOR USVI AND EASTERN PR.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT CONTD VFR THO SCT SHRA TO PROVIDE PSBL MVFR AT
TJMZ IN AFT AND ISOLD SHRA/MVFR HAS OUTSIDE CHC ELSEWHERE MAINLY
AT NIGHT. WINDS 15-26 KT THRU WED...ERLY TO FL100 AND ENE ABV TO
FL200.

&&

.MARINE...SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE WINDS ON CARIBBEAN SIDE
CONTINUE FOR NOW BUT THE LONGER FETCH AREA IN ATLANTIC IS ALLOWING
SEAS THERE TO REACH 7.5 FT AT BUOY 41043 BUT STILL APPROACHING 6
FT AT BUOYS NEAR SAN JUAN...ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN. MODELS HAVE BEEN
A LITTLE TOO QUICK TO PUSH SEAS TO 7 FT CLOSE THE ISLANDS BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL GET THERE WED NIGHT OR THU. SWAN MODEL IS MORE
CONSERVATIVE SO FAR AND USED IT FOR THIS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 76 86 74 / 40 20 20 40
STT 87 77 88 78 / 20 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH OR NORTHEAST FROM
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH LATE FRIDAY AND AGAIN AFTER SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC REGROUPS
OVER CUBA OVER THE WEEKEND. A TUTT LOW FORMS IN THE WESTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH ON THE WEDNESDAY AFTER
NEXT. MID LEVELS ARE GENERALLY QUITE DRY EXCEPT BETWEEN THURSDAY
AND SATURDAY INCLUSIVE.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL FADE
THROUGH SATURDAY. IT WILL BE REPLACED BY A NEW HIGH MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH THIS
FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...EASTERLY FLOW CARRIED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO FROM FAJARDO TO HORMIGUEROS...AMOUNTS WERE LIGHT AS
SHOWERS MOVED QUICKLY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH SATURDAY PEAKING AT AROUND 1.8 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE THEN QUICKLY DROPS OFF. MOISTURE IN A
TROPICAL WAVE AND BANDS OF MOISTURE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL
CONVERGE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS.
RAIN AMOUNTS WILL NEVERTHELESS REMAIN MODEST. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...VCSH/VCTS EXPECTED
AROUND TJMZ THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
EAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...WITH A STEADY FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE IN 7 TO 8 FOOT SEAS WITH SEAS RISING TO THAT LEVEL
IN THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND THE CARIBBEAN TOMORROW AND THE REST OF
THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LOCALLY AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
BUT THERE COULD BE TRANSIENT LOCAL WINDS GREATER THAN 20 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 86 74 86 / 40 40 40 40
STT 77 88 78 87 / 40 40 40 40

&&

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
940 PM AST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH TRADE WINDS STREGTHENING FURTHER EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE RISK OF TRADE SHOWERS EACH
DAY. A NEW AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL EXIT THE MID ATLC COAST DURING
THE WEEKEND AND TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT FURTHER WITH
TRADE WINDS STRENGTHENING MORE. IT APPEARS AFTER SATURDAY THINGS WILL
DRY OUT AS AREA BECOMES UNDER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT
PATTERN AND STRONGER SFC EASTERLIES.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT PASSING TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD OVERNIGHT. SHRA/ISOLD TSRA POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND TJMZ/TJBQ
BETWEEN 17/18Z-21Z AND MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS 15-20 KT THRU SAT THEN STRENGTHENING 20-25 KT SUN-
TUE. SEAS 5-7 FT THRU SAT THEN BUILDING 6-8 FT SUN-TUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 74 86 / 40 40 40 40
STT 79 88 78 87 / 40 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST WED NOV 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...CAUSING BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN DOMINANT OVER THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...WHILE AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS BY THURSDAY...CONVERGENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN
THE UPPER LEVELS IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...QUICK PASSING SHOWERS ARE BEING OBSERVED EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.
AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
PR IS LIKELY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH THE RELATIVELY STRONG EASTERLY
WIND...TODAY MAY BE SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY. SAME
OVERALL PATTERN FOR FRIDAY BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS
EASTERN PR AND THE USVI...SO AT LEAST SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAY OVER THOSE AREAS.

THE WEEKEND MAY START A BIT RAINY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE LOCAL AREA...HOWEVER THE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT AND THE UPPER LOW TO THE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA MAY LIMIT
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND RAINY CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE THE LIKELY SCENARIO WITH MAYBE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING TO DRY ON SUNDAY WITH A BREEZE
EAST NORTHEAST WIND...CONTINUING THIS DURING TREND THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH ONLY PATCHES OF HIGHER
MOISTURE BRIEFLY AFFECTING THE AREA.


&&

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. PASSING SHRA MAY
AFFECT THE LOCAL TERMINALS FROM TIME TO TIME...CAUSING BRIEF MVFR
CONDS AS THE SHOWERS PASS BY. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST
AT AROUND 15 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS. TSRA DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
PR AFTER 19/17Z MAY CAUSE VCTS AT TJMZ.


&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY WITH
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND ANEGADA PASSAGE OBSERVING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS STARTING TONIGHT. COASTAL WINDS EXPECTED TO BE
UP TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AND FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LIKELY
STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 86 75 / 40 40 40 20
STT 87 77 87 78 / 50 40 40 30