Texas Fall-2014

[opticsguy]

got down to 31 in Addison for a few hours. I uncovered the remaining tomato plant this morning and it was doing great. Dodged a bullet.

[Ralph's Weather]

We were below freezing for around 12 hours with a low around 27.

I am holding out that the models are under doing this storm. The moisture looks to be available and the models do tend to under do the strength of these storms. The 12Z runs are going so we will see what they show.

[Ralph's Weather]

As they have been trending, not much precip in the cold air for E TX or even N TX. At this point it does not look like we will get much or really anything frozen from this cold spell though we still have time for the situation to change.

[SouthernMet]

12z gfs parallel flops...
12z nam finally wetter...

[wxman57]

No snow for DFW area in 12Z GFS parallel.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

12Z GEM is wetter for southern Oklahoma and northern Texas Sunday afternoon/night (especially just north of the Red River).

[Tireman4]

No snow for DFW area in 12Z GFS parallel.

So as a pro met, will you side with the Parallel GFS or GFS? Or will you wait until Mid December?

[SouthernMet]

No snow for DFW area in 12Z GFS parallel.


So as a pro met, will you side with the Parallel GFS or GFS? Or will you wait until Mid December?

gfs parallel is the updated/improved gfs. But as of latest run they both have no precip for dfw. But PGFS has been consistent in showing light accumulations for west/north central tx. The 12z run could be a flop or a new trend..

[wxman57]

No snow for DFW area in 12Z GFS parallel.

So as a pro met, will you side with the Parallel GFS or GFS? Or will you wait until Mid December?

The updated GFS did seem to perform better with this week's cold front, but Ryan Maue's verification indicated virtually no improvement in general.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Look at that snow cover. Holy moly. Next weeks front will def come in colder.

[TheProfessor]

12z gfs parallel flops...
12z nam finally wetter...

Yeah the NAM is wetter but it has the temperatures in North Texas hovering the freezing mark when the precip falls and keeps it as rain, hopefully we could get to 32 before any precip, if any, falls.

[dhweather]

We bottomed out at 29 early this morning.

Either way, that should have gotten rid of the flying stinging things outside. That is a big plus.

[gboudx]

We bottomed out at 29 early this morning.

Either way, that should have gotten rid of the flying stinging things outside. That is a big plus.

We hit 28. I've seen quite a few yellowjackets flailing around on the ground, or just dead lately. Also, the trees have suddenly burst into Fall color as well. And the grass cutting season is officially over. Yay!

[SouthernMet]

Latest SREF much wetter... Looks good for San Angelo/Abilene, like PGFS showed earlier.


Analyzing the end of the 12z NAM it looks promising, with a band of snow from Childress-El Paso line at hour 60. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4SC_12z/rad60.gif

But... The PGFS at hour 60 has the same thing : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_10.png

The problem is, at hour 66, poof its all gone, never makes it's way thourgh dfw monday morning.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_11.png

18z nam coming in now..

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Latest SREF much wetter... Looks good for San Angelo/Abilene, like PGFS showed earlier.


Analyzing the end of the 12z NAM it looks promising, with a band of snow from Childress-El Paso line at hour 60. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4SC_12z/rad60.gif

But... The PGFS at hour 60 has the same thing : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_10.png

The problem is, at hour 66, poof its all gone, never makes it's way thourgh dfw monday morning.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_11.png

18z nam coming in now..

The 18Z NAM looks much better for the DFW Metroplex; much wetter, especially just west of DFW.

[SouthernMet]

Latest SREF much wetter... Looks good for San Angelo/Abilene, like PGFS showed earlier.


Analyzing the end of the 12z NAM it looks promising, with a band of snow from Childress-El Paso line at hour 60. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4SC_12z/rad60.gif

But... The PGFS at hour 60 has the same thing : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_10.png

The problem is, at hour 66, poof its all gone, never makes it's way thourgh dfw monday morning.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_11.png

18z nam coming in now..

The 18Z NAM looks much better for the DFW Metroplex; much wetter, especially just west of DFW.

I bet many here would take it... Still waiting on FWD/San Angelo's forecast discussion, tomorrow's will be even more interesting.

18z pgfs running now...

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

Latest SREF much wetter... Looks good for San Angelo/Abilene, like PGFS showed earlier.


Analyzing the end of the 12z NAM it looks promising, with a band of snow from Childress-El Paso line at hour 60. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4SC_12z/rad60.gif

But... The PGFS at hour 60 has the same thing : http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_10.png

The problem is, at hour 66, poof its all gone, never makes it's way thourgh dfw monday morning.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... _us_11.png

18z nam coming in now..

The 18Z NAM looks much better for the DFW Metroplex; much wetter, especially just west of DFW.

I bet many here would take it... Still waiting on FWD/San Angelo's forecast discussion, tomorrow's will be even more interesting.

I concur! It should be an interesting discussion and it should be an interesting next 24-36 hours with model watching

[Ralph's Weather]

The days leading up to a potential winter storm are always entertaining. I am thinking that a few areas of West Texas and even the northern Hill Country could get a few inches during the day Sunday. During the afternoon and evening we will be watching to see if we can get any convective action going over North Texas which would allow for over an inch possibly in places. Then during the night Northeast Texas could see some light snow. Besides the winter weather the models are starting to show some good rain for Southeast Texas.

Let's see what the 18Z PGFS has to say as it is almost up to our interesting time period.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z PGFS is pretty weak with the Sunday system. I hope there is more to this system than just some flurries, that would be a big waste of all of this cold air. And the 18Z GFS goes north into OK with it.

[SouthernMet]

18Z PGFS is pretty weak with the Sunday system. I hope there is more to this system than just some flurries, that would be a big waste of all of this cold air. And the 18Z GFS goes north into OK with it.

As far as the pgfs... atleast it has snow accumulation at all, as opposed to the 12z.. Its a good trend.