Texas Fall-2014

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

18Z PGFS is pretty weak with the Sunday system. I hope there is more to this system than just some flurries, that would be a big waste of all of this cold air. And the 18Z GFS goes north into OK with it.

As far as the pgfs... atleast it has snow accumulation at all, as opposed to the 12z.. Its a good trend.

Indeed!

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z PGFS is pretty weak with the Sunday system. I hope there is more to this system than just some flurries, that would be a big waste of all of this cold air. And the 18Z GFS goes north into OK with it.

As far as the pgfs... atleast it has snow accumulation at all, as opposed to the 12z.. Its a good trend.

Agreed, just going that this is not what we settle on. The storm is just reaching the Northwest so maybe there will be some surprises as it is sampled more.

[SouthernMet]

Is it too early to get your thoughts Orangeblood?

[JDawg512]

My weather station recorded 27 degrees early this morning here on the southside a couple of blocks from South Austin Hospital. Even though I covered my tomatos and peppers, it didn't any good at saving them.

[Ntxw]

From FW this afternoon


.CLIMATE...
DFW AIRPORT HAS STAYED AT OR BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONLY ONCE BEFORE DURING NOVEMBER...IN
1976.

[orangeblood]

From FW this afternoon


.CLIMATE...
DFW AIRPORT HAS STAYED AT OR BELOW 40 DEGREES FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE
DAYS. THIS HAS HAPPENED ONLY ONCE BEFORE DURING NOVEMBER...IN
1976.

Should not be surprising to those that follow the analogs for this winter but still an incredible feat for this time of year. RE; Sunday's system, unfortunately it appears most of the UL energy will stay to our north across Oklahoma this time around...lifting mechanism isn't quite there. Hopefully we can squeeze out a few light snow flakes though.

[gpsnowman]

The snow line is getting pushed more to the southeast according to the NWS morning map.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/fwd/ ... image1.gif

[KatDaddy]

SE TX temps to rise into the upper 50s inland to low 60s along the coastal areas. Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances this afternoon as a low pressure area moves up the TX Coast. S of the warm front areas will have a marginal risk of severe storms tonight. Currently this looks to be areas S and E of Highway 59. In addition these areas may pick up 1-3" of rain by Sunday night before a strong cold front pushes offshore. NTX snowfall is looking more likely this morning beginning late tomorrow afternoon and overnight. The models are showing the strong cold front arriving earlier than previous runs. Accumulating snow may be possible on grassy and elevated surfaces to the N and W of the DFW Metroplex.

[gpsnowman]

Thanks KatDaddy, another arctic front busting the models again it seems. Temps all this week in DFW have been much lower than forecasted. Maybe the same can be said for this one as well. Just need some more moisture to work with. You know it is winter when we start seeing NAM updates!! Hope to see some snow tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Cold arctic air mass remains in place over the region this morning with another colder surge heading for the US border out of Canada.

Coastal trough and surface low pressure system starting to take shape along the lower TX coast will bring an active 36 hours to the region.

Temperatures this morning running a solid 10 degrees above Friday morning values. Freeze line Friday morning ran roughly along US 59 north of Houston to FM 2920 to Waller then WSW to Columbus. Mid level cloud deck hampered central and coastal counties freezing conditions Friday morning…but we will all have another shot next week. Surface arctic dome is attempting to modify, but increasing ENE to NE winds will help lock in the cold air today. Clouds have never really cleared out much since last Tuesday and will only increase with thickening and lowering today as moisture is pulled northward over the surface cold pool. Think surface dry layer will take much of today to saturate before rainfall becomes a concern…likely not until this evening. Patchy fog and some drizzle may develop by mid to late afternoon as the surface warm front moves toward the coast.

Strong short wave will help to energize the coastal low tonight and bring it near/just inland over the upper TX coast. Warm front progresses toward the coast and possibly inland as far as US 59 overnight into Sunday with significantly warmer temperatures (60’s) south of that boundary, in fact there may be a fairly impressive temperature gradient across the area early Sunday. Low level shear values are maximized late tonight into early Sunday along and south of US 59 and if any of the elevated storms can work toward the surface and take advantage of the strong low level shear an isolated severe storm will be possible. Main threats will be wind damage and isolated tornadoes.

Widespread rain will blanket much of the area from late tonight through most of Sunday with heavy rainfall certainly possible. Rainfall amounts have been increased in the past 24 hours and now suggest an average of 1-3 inches is possible across the region with the heaviest rain likely near and south of the warm frontal boundary.

Secondary arctic surge with temperatures over NW Canada currently well below zero will roar southward behind this storm system and off the TX coast late Sunday. Very strong cold air advection will result in tumbling temperatures by Sunday evening likely from the 50’s and 60’s into the 30’s and 40’s with strong winds. Gale Watch is in effect for the Gulf waters and a Gale Warning will likely be needed as very strong NW winds develop under the building arctic high and models showing 925mb winds of 40-45kts Sunday night over the coastal bend into the Gulf waters. A third weaker short wave will move across mainly the northern part of the state Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Models are a little more aggressive with the onset and intensity of the cold air advection which brings P-type into question for Sunday afternoon and evening mainly across north TX. Expect a rain/snow line to develop and move southward Sunday afternoon as the air column cools. A mixture of might rain/flurries may extend as far south as the Hill Country Sunday evening. Current thinking is that the profiles over SE TX will still be too warm for any P-type mixture Sunday night as the rain ends.

If clouds can clear out Monday then a widespread freeze is likely by Tuesday morning with lows in the upper 20’s and lower 30’s. As we saw yesterday however cloud cover will play havoc with the overnight lows.

A sustained warming tend looks likely by the end of next week with southerly flow returning along with clouds and rain chances. In fact temperatures may warm into the lower 70’s by next Friday as this arctic outbreak is dislodged.

[SouthernMet]

2 interesting things... PGFS wants to dissipate the precip before it reaches dfw, NAM/CMC kinda the same but CMC gives the northern 2 rows some decent action (Denton/Gainesville/Denision). NAM just west/nw of metro before it completely dissipates..

But.... fwiw the UKMET actually holds the band together through dfw, with decent qpf, which is very intresting.

New 12z NAM has moderate band from Lubbock-Childress in 36 hours, with light precip all across west central tx, but by 42 hours it's all gone..

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

2 interesting things... PGFS wants to dissipate the precip before it reaches dfw, NAM/CMC kinda the same but CMC gives the northern 2 rows some decent action (Denton/Gainesville/Denision). NAM just west/nw of metro before it completely dissipates..

But.... fwiw the UKMET actually holds the band together through dfw, with decent qpf, which is very intresting.

New 12z NAM has moderate band from Lubbock-Childress in 36 hours, with light precip all across west central tx, but by 42 hours it's all gone..

I see that. It's so odd that that band of precipitation just dissipates so quickly.

[weatherdude1108]

Meanwhile, Lakes Travis and Buchanan rose 2 to 2.5 INCHES during this last widespread rain event.

A large weather system brought gentle rain to the entire lower Colorado River basin in early November, but the rainfall provided very little runoff to the Highland Lakes. Most of the rainfall soaked into extremely dry soil. In all, the rain added about 3,800 acre-feet to storage in lakes Buchanan and Travis. Lake Buchanan rose about 2 inches, and Lake Travis rose about 2 ½ inches.

http://www.lcra.org/water/water-supply/ ... fault.aspx

[srainhoutx]

The Edwards Aquifer rose 8 ft earlier in the month and with El Nino showing its hand already, I suspect we will see improvements during the Winter and Spring with an active storm track across the Desert SW, Northern Mexico and Texas. The longer range guidance is looking favorable for increasing rainfall as we end November for the Highland Lakes of Central Texas.

[wxman57]

12Z PGFS keeps the snow confined to the TX panhandle tomorrow night/early Monday. There doesn't appear to be enough moisture for any snow in the DFW area.

[aggiecutter]

Chance of rain and snow for Texarkana tomorrow night:

Sunday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Sunny, with a high near 44. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 23.

[Ntxw]

The Edwards Aquifer rose 8 ft earlier in the month and with El Nino showing its hand already, I suspect we will see improvements during the Winter and Spring with an active storm track across the Desert SW, Northern Mexico and Texas. The longer range guidance is looking favorable for increasing rainfall as we end November for the Highland Lakes of Central Texas.

http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee29 ... mer_11.png

Those are very low heights. Looks like the OP is finally picking up on the Thanksgiving week storm potential as been showing for days on the ensembles. Disruptive for travelers busiest travel week.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

12Z PGFS keeps the snow confined to the TX panhandle tomorrow night/early Monday. There doesn't appear to be enough moisture for any snow in the DFW area.

The haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate!

[Ntxw]

Pfft cherry pick the Ukmet! Some windshield flakes counts as a win

[Tireman4]

Pfft cherry pick the Ukmet! Some windshield flakes counts as a win

That is it Ntwx...I like it too. Just a little on the windshield and that will send Wxman 57 scurrying...