Texas Fall-2014

[srainhoutx]

The Updated SPC Day 1 Outlook now suggests a Marginal chance of surface based storms along the Upper Texas Coast. Some of these storms may approach severe limits and possibly include rotating cellular characteristics as the warm front moves inland. Elevated storms are possible N of the warm front as the Coastal low/trough develops tonight into Sunday.

[wxman57]

12Z PGFS keeps the snow confined to the TX panhandle tomorrow night/early Monday. There doesn't appear to be enough moisture for any snow in the DFW area.

The haters gonna hate, hate, hate, hate, hate!

I, personally, don't care if you get 10ft of snow up there. I'm just pointing out the limited moisture available. Can't rule out a stray flake here or there, but there just isn't enough moisture for more than that.

[Ntxw]

DFW is a few tenths of a degree from cracking top 10 coldest Novembers on record. I think that will be achieved given the coming cold front tomorrow if you're using the GFS/ECMWF forecast which doesn't show any extended period of above normal temperatures. Below to near normal, if we can get another blast, or anomalous cloudy cool days could probably do it maybe even top 5. 1976 had a big blast again late in the month so we'll need a pretty significant one to match. The most recent top 10 Novembers is 2000, and 1993. Those seem achievable.

[TheProfessor]

Well both the GFS and Nam Soundings have what looks to be a relatively moist in the lower levels as we approach freezing but then dry afterwards, so there maybe a very small window where areas below freezing could see a half inch maybe even an inch before it becomes too dry, which is probably why FWD now has some areas potentially seeing .25-.5 inch in some areas.

[Ntxw]

I decided to take a composite of those top 10 Novembers (curious that their synoptic patterns are quite similar) and the ensuing winters (DJF) are relatively the same with Aleutian low dominating the pattern across the Nhem, NW Canada blocking and persistent subtropical jet as seen across the southern US. I left out 1947-1948 because NARR only provides 1949 forward.



At 500mb

[TexasF6]

Its misting drizzle or something here in NW Austin @ The Longhorn WX Center......Porta? Are we in this thing in Austin? If it happens???

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The 12Z Euro has a moderate band of precipitation across northern Texas 36 hours out. It's small, but it's there (stretches from about Paris, Texas down through Fort Worth).

[aggiecutter]

Updated forecast for Texarkana has increased chance for snow tomorrow night:

Rain likely before 7pm, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

[aggiecutter]

18z run of the NAM has light snow for North and NE Texas tomorrow afternoon and night.

[Portastorm]

Its misting drizzle or something here in NW Austin @ The Longhorn WX Center......Porta? Are we in this thing in Austin? If it happens???

Highly unlikely, I'm afraid TexasF6. Temps may warm a bit and we're already in mid 40s. By the time the polar air hits us late Sunday into Monday morning the processes creating this light drizzle won't be active anymore.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Light drizzle now falling here in Richardson.

[aggiecutter]

Shreveport AFD:

A REINFORCEMENT OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND NEAR FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO TAKE SHAPE.
HOWEVER...QFP AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS WILL BE LOW. A BAND OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING AND PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30 WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.

[JDawg512]

Meanwhile, Lakes Travis and Buchanan rose 2 to 2.5 INCHES during this last widespread rain event.

A large weather system brought gentle rain to the entire lower Colorado River basin in early November, but the rainfall provided very little runoff to the Highland Lakes. Most of the rainfall soaked into extremely dry soil. In all, the rain added about 3,800 acre-feet to storage in lakes Buchanan and Travis. Lake Buchanan rose about 2 inches, and Lake Travis rose about 2 ½ inches.

http://www.lcra.org/water/water-supply/ ... fault.aspx

The good thing about this last rain event is the soils are now saturated and that will go along way for upcoming rain events to drain more water into the lakes.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The latest NAM doesn't look too promising; however, the latest SREF looks a lot wetter.

Also, the 00Z HRRR looks interesting at 15 hours; shows some precipitation developing just west of the DFW Metro that the other guidance isn't showing.

[TheProfessor]

I was just about to mention the SREF model run, If it begins a wet trend this close to the event, than it's something definitely worth watching.

[gpsnowman]

Just caught the CBS 11 weather report and sleet was mentioned in the forecast. Then snow after that. If the front means business and comes in stronger and faster, we could be in business if enough moisture remains. Nine degrees in Denver now, 29 in Amarillo. Cold is on the way. I bet we see something tomorrow, albeit light. An NFL Sunday with snow flying is just what the doctor ordered. Looking forward to this, if it happens. Fingers crossed.

[Nairobi]

ECMWF predicted temperatures can be found here (Amarillo is a mere example):

http://m.yr.no/place/United_States/Texa ... /long.html

[SouthernMet]

10z HRRR keeps some decent precip together on the last frame, latest SREF MUCH wetter with an inch of snow for dfw, up to 5 for wichita falls, and some of the ensembles had up to .49 qpf most between .25-.35 for Dallas, great trend.

[Ralph's Weather]

I see snow is now flying in the Panhandle where they could get over 3 inches in some areas. Looks like the front is in Wichita Falls with temps around freezing and some precip on radar. Around here drizzle continues this morning with temps in the upper 30s. We are expecting the rain to increase later today and then turn to sleet and snow tonight. I will study the models from overnight to see if they are offering any hope for accumulations.

[SouthernMet]

I see snow is now flying in the Panhandle where they could get over 3 inches in some areas. Looks like the front is in Wichita Falls with temps around freezing and some precip on radar. Around here drizzle continues this morning with temps in the upper 30s. We are expecting the rain to increase later today and then turn to sleet and snow tonight. I will study the models from overnight to see if they are offering any hope for accumulations.

It looks to me that the leading edge is from Synder tx, to okc, with the coldest air still from Lubbock to just west of okc.. Its actually 37 in w falls, & 27 & breezy in Childress.