Texas Fall-2014

[Ralph's Weather]

10z HRRR keeps some decent precip together on the last frame, latest SREF MUCH wetter with an inch of snow for dfw, up to 5 for wichita falls, and some of the ensembles had up to .49 qpf most between .25-.35 for Dallas, great trend.

Sounds like the models are trending to what I thought/hoped. It did not make sense for the precip to dry out as it moved east.

[Ralph's Weather]

I see snow is now flying in the Panhandle where they could get over 3 inches in some areas. Looks like the front is in Wichita Falls with temps around freezing and some precip on radar. Around here drizzle continues this morning with temps in the upper 30s. We are expecting the rain to increase later today and then turn to sleet and snow tonight. I will study the models from overnight to see if they are offering any hope for accumulations.

It looks to me that the leading edge is from Synder tx, to okc, with the coldest air still from Lubbock to just west of okc.. Its actually 37 in w falls, & 27 & breezy in Childress.

You are right it looks like the freezing temps and precip is in Vernon moving toward Wichita Falls.

[SouthernMet]

10z HRRR keeps some decent precip together on the last frame, latest SREF MUCH wetter with an inch of snow for dfw, up to 5 for wichita falls, and some of the ensembles had up to .49 qpf most between .25-.35 for Dallas, great trend.

Sounds like the models are trending to what I thought/hoped. It did not make sense for the precip to dry out as it moved east.

FWIW 6z Nam & 6z PGFS still showing the dissipation.

[SouthernMet]

New NWS map expects the front to be through metro by 9am..

it's already 16 in Amarillo & dropping..

[SouthernMet]

11z HRRR shows potentially 2 *light* rounds of precip for dfw.

Latest SREF looks like it wants to really weaken the precip that's currently in the panhandle & oklahoma, but not completely. This is plausible considering the PGFS/NAM guidance.

[Ralph's Weather]

FWIW 6z Nam & 6z PGFS still showing the dissipation.

Saw that, I am going to have a hard time to believing that it will dry up until I see it. The thing I am primarily watching is if it will get cold enough out this way before the precip ends.

[horselattitudesfarm]

I recall, but cannot remember when exactly, that we broke a record for number of consecutive days where it did not hit 80 degrees. It was in the Jan-March timeframe I believe, and it was just 4 or 5 years ago. Does anyone have that information?

[Ntxw]

I recall, but cannot remember when exactly, that we broke a record for number of consecutive days where it did not hit 80 degrees. It was in the Jan-March timeframe I believe, and it was just 4 or 5 years ago. Does anyone have that information?

I believe that was 2009/2010 the year DFW had that 12.5 inch snowstorm in Feb, was 80-free from mid October to late March

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

13Z HRRR shows a decent band of snow moving through the DFW Metro at the end of its run.

[Ntxw]

A few days ago the GFS had DFW going into the 50s yesterday, that didn't happen it got to 45. It had today getting into the 40s we've had a high of 40 at midnight and it's going to drop the rest of today. The base state is colder, it's tougher to moderate. This is the 4th day this month with a high of 40 or less.

The forecast for a +AO just went to the gutter. Looks like it will remain mostly negative and perhaps another sink by week 2.

[srainhoutx]

A few days ago the GFS had DFW going into the 50s yesterday, that didn't happen it got to 45. It had today getting into the 40s we've had a high of 40 at midnight and it's going to drop the rest of today. The base state is colder, it's tougher to moderate. This is the 4th day this month with a high of 40 or less.

The forecast for a +AO just went to the gutter. Looks like it will remain mostly negative and perhaps another sink by week 2.

Keep an eye on next weekend. That storm system looks very potent across the Southern Plains and possibly another following quickly on its heals near Thanksgiving.

[Ntxw]

A few days ago the GFS had DFW going into the 50s yesterday, that didn't happen it got to 45. It had today getting into the 40s we've had a high of 40 at midnight and it's going to drop the rest of today. The base state is colder, it's tougher to moderate. This is the 4th day this month with a high of 40 or less.

The forecast for a +AO just went to the gutter. Looks like it will remain mostly negative and perhaps another sink by week 2.

Keep an eye on next weekend. That storm system looks very potent across the Southern Plains and possibly another following quickly on its heals near Thanksgiving.

Both eyes are on it! Busy travel week and the ENS have been remarkably consistent.

[wxman57]

Next weekend's event looks like a showers/thunderstorms event. Too much onshore flow Thu/Fri. Looking good for a freeze here in Houston Tuesday (maybe Monday, too).

[SouthernMet]

14z HRRR showing Snow/Sleet accumulations for the dfw area now for the first time. Shows 2 rounds like earlier, first round of precip is very light, 2nd round light-moderate snow.

SREF says first round could be light sleet.

[SouthernMet]

WWA for Hardeman, Foard, Wilbarger, Wichita, Baylor, Knox, Archer, Cottle, King, Stonewall & Clay counties. Most likely will be more to come, if the freezing drizzle sticks around.

[aggiecutter]

Forecast for Texarkana for tonight:

Rain, snow, and sleet likely before midnight, then a chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected.

[ndale]

EWX has put a "slight" chance of sleet in my forecast for tonight here in north Austin area.

[TheProfessor]

The Roads are pretty wet in my area, I don't what they are like in other places in the metroplex, but if they don't dry here by tonight, there might be some travel issues in the morning.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

The past few runs of the HRRR continue to look very promising for northern Texas if you're wanting to see snow this evening!

[gboudx]

The Roads are pretty wet in my area, I don't what they are like in other places in the metroplex, but if they don't dry here by tonight, there might be some travel issues in the morning.

It's wet everywhere here in the Eastplex with fog and light drizzle since last night.