Texas Fall-2014

[Texas Snowman]

Saw where Joe Bastardi tweeted a while ago that this morning's snow cover map for Nov. 17th showed some 50% of the U.S. with snow cover on the ground.

That includes the entire state of Oklahoma, by the way.

He also said that the normal snow coverage on Christmas Day for the entire nation is 33%.

[gboudx]

Gonna stir the pot here a bit, the analogs for 8 to 14 day forecast has some 1962 and 1989 years in them. Back to regularly scheduled programming.

What occurred during those years?

1989 is pushing my memory limits but it was cold, cold, and more cold. Cant remember if there was much if any precip but I do remember it being in the single digits in Baton Rouge.

I grew up on the Westbank in SELA and remember 89 well. I remember driving to the Post Office for work and some freezing rain froze on my windshield. It then started to sleet and then snow. There was so much precip, traffic was a nightmare and a normal 15 minute ride home took me 3 hours. The snow and ice stuck around for days.

[Ntxw]

I don't think 89 is a great analog in the set, the late 70s and 60s are good. Those are more -AO tipped and strong snowcover advance, with favorable Pacific (EPO). 89 was heavy weighted December but ran out of gas in the other months. November 89 was quite warm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah 1989 was more of a brutal DEC and that was pretty much it iirc. I remember it for sure. I just thought it was interesting to see those analogs.

[Ntxw]

Pay attention to the stratosphere, in a post before I mentioned one was being hinted. Its looming for late Nov, likely see results by mid December and it looks like a doozy SSW. Picking up over eastern Siberia and the EPO domain of the lower strat.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Pay attention to the stratosphere, in a post before I mentioned one was being hinted. Its looming for late Nov, likely see results by mid December and it looks like a doozy SSW. Picking up over eastern Siberia and the EPO domain of the lower strat.

Whereever the greatest anamoly in the stratosphere mean the that is where the center of the blocking will occur? Just curious.


I also think after this blast, we moderate, then around Dec 10th or so, weather could get funky again. Just my opinion, not many facts to back it up lol. Although i do think this pattern repeats itself quite a bit this winter.

[srainhoutx]

Keep a keen eye on this weekend. After we moderate, a potent shortwave approaches from our W and deep cyclogenesis looks likely across W Texas into Oklahoma. There could be a significant severe weather event next Sunday into Monday extending E across the Northern Gulf Coast States.,

[Ntxw]

Pay attention to the stratosphere, in a post before I mentioned one was being hinted. Its looming for late Nov, likely see results by mid December and it looks like a doozy SSW. Picking up over eastern Siberia and the EPO domain of the lower strat.

Whereever the greatest anamoly in the stratosphere mean the that is where the center of the blocking will occur? Just curious.


I also think after this blast, we moderate, then around Dec 10th or so, weather could get funky again. Just my opinion, not many facts to back it up lol. Although i do think this pattern repeats itself quite a bit this winter.

Not necessarily. I think the warming up there will disrupt some more the strat PV, sending more -AO. The longterm trend for months has been tropospheric blocking to favor the EPO domain for delivery as a result. Not guaranteed but that would be a good place to look. Later in winter we may see more NAO into play but the Pacific so far still rules the roost.

[Ntxw]

12z euro looks poised to send an arctic air mass with blocking in western Canada later next week after passage of storm systems.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z euro looks poised to send an arctic air mass with blocking in western Canada later next week after passage of storm systems.

I think this is why nat gas is rallying today again. Had another surge midday

[weatherdude1108]

Gonna stir the pot here a bit, the analogs for 8 to 14 day forecast has some 1962 and 1989 years in them. Back to regularly scheduled programming.

What occurred during those years?

1989 is pushing my memory limits but it was cold, cold, and more cold. Cant remember if there was much if any precip but I do remember it being in the single digits in Baton Rouge.

I remember in December 1989, I lived in San Antonio. On December 23rd, it got down to 6 degrees (had to look it up)! It killed back most of my parents' ligustrum hedge out in the backyard. That was brutal cold!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/ewx/sat/satdecdaily.pdf

[gatorcane]

12z euro looks poised to send an arctic air mass with blocking in western Canada later next week after passage of storm systems.

Yep and then yet another one starts to build over Canada just north of the border by day 10 which looks poised to drop south

[orangeblood]

12z euro looks poised to send an arctic air mass with blocking in western Canada later next week after passage of storm systems.

Appears to be a hint at the pattern going into winter, ridge axis along the US west coast into British Columbia along with the Atlantic ridge still attempting to hold firm (fits some of the analogs discussed earlier)....this would put the axis of low heights directly across the southern plains for prolonged periods of time. Really interesting 12Z Euro run!!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12z euro looks poised to send an arctic air mass with blocking in western Canada later next week after passage of storm systems.

Appears to be a hint at the pattern going into winter, ridge axis along the US west coast into British Columbia along with the Atlantic ridge still attempting to hold firm (fits some of the analogs discussed earlier)....this would put the axis of low heights directly across the southern plains for prolonged periods of time. Really interesting 12Z Euro run!!

Was it showing a -EPO? or AO? I saw the 240 and it looked very interesting.

[gatorcane]

Latest temp map with a map looking more like winter out there for most of the country. Also we note the very warm temps across SE Florida where records are being broken today (88F in West Palm Beach).

[CaptinCrunch]

Get ready for the coldest morning yet with widespread Teens across much of NTX..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXTREMELY DRY TODAY...WITH A MORNING SOUNDING
PWAT OF 0.12 IN (FOR COMPARISON...IT WAS 0.71 IN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON). SURFACE RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER TX PANHANDLE
WILL DRIFT ACROSS NORTH TX BEFORE SUNRISE. WITH DRY AIR...CALM
WINDS... AND CLEAR SKIES I WENT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE ON TOMORROW
MORNING/S LOWS AND I HAVE WIDESPREAD TEENS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
20. THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL ALSO SEE SOME TEENS WITH WIDESPREAD
AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S BY SUNRISE.

AS THE RIDGE PUSHES EAST SOUTH FLOW STARTS UP AGAIN AND WE/LL SEE
A WARM UP. BY THURSDAY MORNING ALL AREAS SHOULD STAY ABOVE
FREEZING...WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON REACHING THE 60S EXCEPT
NEAR THE RED RIVER.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY SOUTH
AND EAST...WITH A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.

A STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO CA/OR THURSDAY...AND DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO NEW MEXICO BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PLACES TEXAS
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN LINE FOR A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVES. LEE
TROUGHING INCREASES SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND PUMPS GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE NORTH TX AREA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY AND
WITH 500J CAPE THERE WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN WITH THE
SHOWERS.

ON SATURDAY THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH TX AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. CAPE INCREASES TO POSSIBLY OVER 1000J AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. VERY COLD 500MB
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LOW (-20C) WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RAISE THE THREAT OF HAIL
FOR THE AREA. THIS FAR OUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT ALL THE
SEVERE THREATS BUT TEMPERATURES AND DYNAMICS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT OCCURS EARLIER IN THE FALL DURING OUR SECONDARY SEVERE
SEASON. WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD END WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

WITH THE LOW PULLING NORTHEAST SUNDAY...COOLER AIR WON/T REACH
THE AREA UNTIL A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT IT WILL BE
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND WE DON/T YET EXPECT A FREEZE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY MORNING. 84

[hriverajr]

I see a warm up later this week, and relatively mild weather (compared to what we are having) for the next 7-10 days. In southwest Texas where I live, the weather will be boring as well :/

[Nairobi]

No hint of really cold weather in Dallas through Thanksgiving, according to the ECMWF output statistics. Even Winnipeg not abnormally cold.

[Ntxw]

The pattern for the next 4-7 days not one for arctic outbreaks but it's not for mild, sunny weather either, it is a stormy and disturbed weather pattern. Heights are very low meaning deep cold core lows crossing the southern plains. Srain layed it out pretty well earlier in his posts. Compared to the near historical cold snap we just had, it's warmer.

[northjaxpro]

That's right Ntwx. The origin of the next cold spell doesn't look to be from the Arctic regions like this current one the nation is experiencing. However, it will still be below normal and the GFS is hinting at a rather potent cold core mid-upper Low developing early next week somewhere from the Southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley next week. Last night's run of the GFS Parallel had the cold core Low actually lowering 500mb heights significantly to along the TX coast and deep into the NW GOM. I actually posted those runs on the Florida thread last night.