Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

What an active day it turned out to be across North Florida today. Severe weather hit across the region in advance of the very strong arctic front which is rapidly moving in across the region. Tornado occured in Blountstown, out in Calhoun County in the panhandle earlier today. Wind damage and downed trees occured in the Suwannee River Valley region and near Lake City. In the Jacksonville metro area, an intense squall line moved through between 12:30 and 1:15 p.m. At my locale, the squall line bought a peak wind gust of 58 mph, and picked up nearly an inch of rain within 10-15 minutes. It was a wicked squall line for sure, and there will be more severe weather potential down across the central peninsula through the rest of this afternoon into the early evening. Please heed to warnings if they prop up in that region.

Now, the coldest air of the season so far is knocking on our door and will come in later tonight as the arctic front puches down through the peninsula. Hard freeze watch and freeze watch already up for Wednesday morning for all of North Florida except at the immediate coast, where temps are expected to be in the lower 30s. Everywhere else in the low-mid 20s interior, colder areas of North Florida, and 25-30 degrees within the Jax metro area(away from the Beaches, Intracoastal Waterway and Saint Johns River)

During the day Tuesday, extremely impressive cold air advection will commence as the Arctic High builds into the Deep South from the west. Brisk Northwest winds will keep max temperatures only in the upper 40s and lower 50s at best across all of North Florida and only into the upper 50s to near 60 at best down into the interior central peninsula. Temps a good 20 degrees or so below average! Wind chills will be rather harsh across the region as well on tomorrow.

On Wednesday morning temps could reach as low as the mid 30s down into interior North Central peninsula areas across Lake County and interior Seminole County if the GFS is correct, which I believe will be close to verify in those regions Wednesday morning. The modified Arctic High moves in closer during the day and max temps should remain in the 50s across North Florida, and upper 50s to lower 60s across interior central Florida Wednesday. By Wednesday evening, winds should lay down and allow for radiational cooling to be maximized across the area by Thursday morning. Another widespread freeze expected across the interior North Florida area with 20s expected again, and lower 30s at the coast.

The interior areas of the central peninsula probably will see upper 30s to lower 40s in most areas Thursday morning, but the freeze line should stay north of I-4 corridor. Still will watch carefully for this area for the mins both Wednesday and Thursday mornings. However, the colder spots of the Nature Coast area such as Brooksville, could get to the freeze mark, especially Wednesday morning. Usually, good cold air drainage occurs in that region during arctic air events

As for the southern peninsula, quite the temperature gradient expected down there beginning Wednesday as the shallow cold air looks to penetrate only the interior areas south to about Lake Okeechobee. Areas inland(to the north and west) from the Lake could see readings near 40 degrees in pockets but mostly in the 40s Wednesday morning. However, the Polar High axis will be positioned during the day Wednesday to bring in a northeast onshore flow off the warm waters into the coastal areas of Southeast Florida on Wednesday into Thursday, which will protect that area from seeing any impacts for the cold spell. The northeast flow once again will keep the coastal regions of Palm Beach, Broward and Dade counties from seeing any effects of the modified air mass. However, it will keep clouds and moisutre in those areas as well for mch of this week. Temps across SE Florida areas will only drop into the low 60s at best Wednesday and Thursday morning, and lower 70s for maxes each day.

Moderation should begin to commence across the entire peninsula during the day on Thursday as the Polar High axis will begin to move north/northeast away from the peninsula along with rising 500mb heights as well. We'll need the warming trend in my neck of the woods to help recover from the freezes this week.

[gatorcane]

Well although severe weather and cold air intrusion to follow for North and Central FL has been the focus today, it is worth noting SE Florida is seeing record-breaking warmth with West Palm Beach reaching 88F. Latest mesoscale analysis of temps show the warmth across SE Florida and cooler to the north where the storms have passed through:

[northjaxpro]

Latest preliminary minimum temperature forecast projected by the statewide NWS WFOs, with tomorrow morning's min and Wednesday's minimum in that order for the listed cities:

Tallahassee WFO

Tuesday morning 12Z Wednesday 12Z

Tallahassee 33 20
Panama City 35 29
Apalachicola 37 28
Cross City 39 22

Jacksonville WFO

Jacksonville 39 27
St. Augustine 40 32
Gainesville 41 25
Ocala 44 26


Melbourne WFO

Daytona Beach 50 37
Leesburg 49 33
Orlando 52 40
Melbourne 55 43
Vero Beach 61 47


Tampa WFO

Tampa 51 38
Ft. Myers 62 46
Sarasota 56 41
Brooksville 47 28


Miami WFO

West Palm Bch 69 57
Ft. Lauderdale 72 60
Miami 71 59
Naples 66 48

[TheStormExpert]

I have noticed that when the rest of the CONUS is dealing with arctic air intrusions us here in Florida are usually well spared (excluding northern parts of Florida sometimes). The only way it seems that cold air can get into Florida is when the trough (cold air) is focused along the East Coast.

[BigB0882]

If the 240 hour GFS parallel comes close to verifying, any moisture and lift in place with those low heights and thicknesses, snow would be possible all the way down to the Gulf Coast as crazy as that would be the week of Thanksgiving.

I know the odds are close to nothing of that happening but just out of curiosity, are you talking about just to the Gulf Coast of Florida or is it all parts of the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida?

[northjaxpro]

If the 240 hour GFS parallel comes close to verifying, any moisture and lift in place with those low heights and thicknesses, snow would be possible all the way down to the Gulf Coast as crazy as that would be the week of Thanksgiving.

I know the odds are close to nothing of that happening but just out of curiosity, are you talking about just to the Gulf Coast of Florida or is it all parts of the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida?

On the extreme slim chance of this event occuring, I was referencing this to be an exent moreso from the TX eastward to Louisiana and the extreme Deep South. But, EL Nino is in place and if all the ingredients can come toggether properly,it is a plausible this winter to see wintry weather this season deep in Dixie. Already has happened in South Carolina on Nov. 1.

[northjaxpro]

It is a brisk, cold 37.3 degrees at 7:15 a.m. at my home locale. Actually, had a narrow band of light rain move over my locale for about 10 minutes last hour. The clouds are now beginning to clear out and the strong cold air advection is definitely ongoing. Northwest winds are 15 with gusts to over 20mph at times, Current wind chills at near 30 degrees.

We may set records today and tomorrow. The record low maximum for Jax today is 50 degrees. Temps today will really struggle to get to that mark today. The record low for tomorrow morning is 28 degrees at the NWS office, and that looks very good to get at least tied tomorrow morning.

[Sanibel]

Mild here at 60* Light rain. Not a plunger so far.

[northjaxpro]

The cold air will not plunge that far south where you are Sanibel. The shallow modified arctic air will only penetrate down into interior South Central peninsula north and to the west of Lake Okeechobee. The orientation of the modified Arctic High will bring more of a onshore flow over the extreme southern and southeast peninsula and that will prevent the shallow cold air from making it to those areas during this event. I touched on this yesterday on my post on this same page.

[gatorcane]

These cold temperatures for North and Central Florida are amazing for this time of year. Temperatures are still in the upper 40s this hour across the I4 corridor with overcast skies, periods of light rain, and north winds with windchills in the lower 40s. Even for the middle of winter this would be impressive.

Meanwhile Southern Florida is still holding onto 70s and even some 80s far SE as the cold front has yet to arrive. Huge temperatures difference across the state right now.

[psyclone]

it's 50 @ 1pm @ both KTPA and KPIE...much cooler than the earlier forecasts due to stubborn cloud cover. the winds are much lighter than earlier forecasts as well so it's a fair trade IMO. Great hoodie weather with the smell of wood burning fireplaces filling the air. I like the warm weather but having this for a couple of days is cool too.

[northjaxpro]

At my weather station, temp apparently reached a max of 51.4 degrees at 3:15p.m. this afternoon. Temp currently 50.2 degrees.

The modified Arctic High (1034 mb) is currently centered over Louisiana, and will continue moving east a bit closer tonight toward our region. The winds will begin to relax a bit, which will help temps to really drop to by far the coldest readings we have seen since January 2014.

Latest projected temperatures for tomorrow has been lowered a bit by the NWS Jax office. NWS Jax now projecting 24 degrees at 12Z tomorrrow morning, which will shatter the record low of 28 degrees for tomorrow's date. They are also projecting 24 degrees at Gainesville and 25 in Ocala, which would also shatter the record for the date at those locations.

Tallahassee WFO is now projecting 19 degrees for tomorrow morning, which if this happened, it would be the coldest temperature ever recorded there for November.

Definitely hard freeze criteria tonight across all of North Florida away for the immediate coast, where temps will be near 30 degrees.

One more freeze across the area for Thursday morning, which will be more of a radiational cooling freeze as the Arctic High axis will be centered over GA, giving us light to calm winds and better conditions for frost as well Thursday morning with temps in the mid-upper 20s interior areas of the northern peninsula.

Moderation will commence during the day Thursday to help us thaw out!

[FireRat]

Dunno about extreme Southeast FL (Miami area), but it is quite raw here in my neighborhood located in the western end of NW Broward County. 56 degrees right now under "rat-gray" skies w/ light rain. Was 66 degrees at noon and it's now 10 degrees lower. Definitely an "upside down" weather day down here. How Miami held onto 70s and 80s is beyond me!, sounds like a microclimate lol

[TheStormExpert]

Florida is a bipolar state.

Anyways, I'm starting to think that if it wasn't for this pesky cloud cover and gusty winds that we could possibly be experiencing widespread 40's, and 30's come tomorrow morning. Got to thank this cloud cover and gusty winds I guess for preventing radiational cooling from commencing.

Right now it is currently a chilly and raw 57°F here in Palm Beach Gardens, FL and it's not even 6:30pm yet! It's only expected to drop a degree or two overnight!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Hello from Canada boys! I'm feeling bad I haven't visited with you in a loooooooooong time!

[gatorcane]

Mesoscale analysis shows the higher dewpoints across SE Florida. That should keep the temps much warmer than the rest of the state though I am seeing some observations that are already lower than what the NWS forecasted for lows tonight so NWS may have to lower the lows tonight some in the next update.

[northjaxpro]

I talked about this gatorcane on earlier posts, including above on this page. The higher dewpoints is to be expected given the surface onshore wind trajectory from the north-northeast along the SE Florida coast with the modified Arctic High centered over Southern MS currently. This will effectively keep the shallow cold air mass from reaching that area. The shallow cold is doing just as expected, pooled inland across the areas directly near and around Lake Okeechobee and points west and north of there.

Temperature already at 35.3 degrees at my locale. Should be below freezing in the next couple of hours. Hard freeze definitely looks on target as we will have at least 10 hours of temps below freezing. Mid 20s look good for tomorrow morning here.

[gatorcane]

northjaxpro, yeah that NNE wind vector will act to keep the cold north and west of Lake O. It's interesting to note Pompano Beach Airpark actually saw it's temperature rise 1 degree from the last observations suggesting mixing is already occurring. Temps along the immediate SE Coast of Florida shouldn't drop really at all the rest of the night but areas further inland and west should see their temps drop several more degrees being further from the ocean. Could see a good 4-5 degree temp difference between western suburbs of South Florida and coastal areas.

[NDG]

Also SW winds in the mid and upper levels should also keep some cloud cover in southern FL to keep the temperatures from falling much further.

On a side note, Pensacola's Naval Air Station already reporting a temp of 29 degrees, wow!!! Quiet a temperature range between the Panhandle and the FL Keys tonight.

Officially for Orlando a low of around 40 degrees is forecasted, since this current cold air is shallow and winds are expected to stay up enough to mix down some of the warmer air above the ground. Areas in central FL where the wind could die down enough expect lower temps.

[northjaxpro]

NDG, the panhandle obs are really going to crater temps wise by morning. Crestview is forecast to be at 19 degrees and Pensacola in the low 20s. Also, they are right about under the center of the Arctic High, which should be giving them light to near calm winds over there, which will give them very decent radiational cooling hard freeze for sure.

The rest of North Florida will have a radiational freeze on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the Arctic High moves in over GA.