Texas Fall-2014

[Portastorm]

Strange patch of cloud cover is crossing the state. It's showing some strange temperature variations across the metroplex. I wonder if this will give wxman57 a close but no cigar almost freeze?

Freezing at every airport in Houston BUT IAH. Saw the clouds last evening and knew they'd keep IAH above freezing. Still a shot for the next 2 hours though.

Congrats! You got your freezing temps ... now, slowly back away from those Heat Miser computers ... and slowly turn each one off until March 2015. That's all we're asking here.

[Tireman4]

Strange patch of cloud cover is crossing the state. It's showing some strange temperature variations across the metroplex. I wonder if this will give wxman57 a close but no cigar almost freeze?

Freezing at every airport in Houston BUT IAH. Saw the clouds last evening and knew they'd keep IAH above freezing. Still a shot for the next 2 hours though.

Congrats! You got your freezing temps ... now, slowly back away from those Heat Miser computers ... and slowly turn each one off until March 2015. That's all we're asking here.

I agree with Porta. Let us have our Winter sir. You had 2011. Thanks for your consideration in this matter.

[dhweather]

I agree with Porta. Let us have our Winter sir. You had 2011. Thanks for your consideration in this matter.

I do not know that we could possibly have a a Winter that could complete with that? 70+ 100 degree days , maybe 70 days with lows below freezing would be comparable ?

[Ntxw]

I agree with Porta. Let us have our Winter sir. You had 2011. Thanks for your consideration in this matter.

I do not know that we could possibly have a a Winter that could complete with that? 70+ 100 degree days , maybe 70 days with lows below freezing would be comparable ?

Yes! 70+ freezes and dip into the single digits a few times. Heck lets pull a 1949 or 1930 <- this one is the second most consecutive hours below freezing and raw temps may give 1983 a run for it's money and dip below 0 once or twice.

[gatorcane]

12Z Parallel GFS is showing yet another massive area of Arctic air building just north of the United States in Canada by day 10...with the ECMWF showing this plunging south on the 00Z run, will have to monitor this outbreak closely in the coming runs.

[Ntxw]

The model trends have been to re-tank the EPO around thanksgiving and after. Worth a note.

For those who haven't been paying attention, look at the El Nino blossom before us, just in time for DJF

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .week.html

[South Texas Storms]

This weekend's storm system sure looks potent. Could be a severe weather outbreak across the eastern half of the state on Saturday.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

It looks like the guidance is hinting at some light precipitation being generated next Monday night/Tuesday morning for southern Oklahoma, and possibly northern Texas, as a piece of energy moves across the area. We may have to keep a close eye on this system as well as temperatures. Anyone else seeing this?

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: The model trends have been to re-tank the EPO around thanksgiving and after. Worth a note.

The AO is returning to a strongly negative signature as well, so expect a lot of volatility in the operational guidance as they attempt to resolve whether or not the various shortwaves phase over North America embedded in the Polar and Sub Tropical Jet. The 12Z GEFS mean has switched to below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation after showing a big moderation for days...

[Ntxw]

It looks like the guidance is hinting at some light precipitation being generated next Monday night/Tuesday morning for southern Oklahoma, and possibly northern Texas, as a piece of energy moves across the area. We may have to keep a close eye on this system as well as temperatures. Anyone else seeing this?

Heights are very low, that has been consistent. The cold air source isn't of arctic origin so surface temps won't be cold enough but with deep cold core systems you just can never dismiss the possibility it may bring cold air aloft with it at the very end. Though chances are remote but it wouldn't be unheard of.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

12Z Parallel GFS is showing yet another massive area of Arctic air building just north of the United States in Canada by day 10...with the ECMWF showing this plunging south on the 00Z run, will have to monitor this outbreak closely in the coming runs.

Im not seeing this massive arctic build on the PGFS, cant see 10 days out on Euro.

[Ntxw]

12Z Parallel GFS is showing yet another massive area of Arctic air building just north of the United States in Canada by day 10...with the ECMWF showing this plunging south on the 00Z run, will have to monitor this outbreak closely in the coming runs.

Im not seeing this massive arctic build on the PGFS, cant see 10 days out on Euro.

Ridging coming into Alaska and NW Canada, with heights beginning to rise off the west coast. Hudson bay Vortex/low, that is your feature for McFarland's 500mb cross polar flow like we just had. 12Z Euro now has it as well like it's 0z run. The models will probably start trending towards a massive high in the coming days.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: The model trends have been to re-tank the EPO around thanksgiving and after. Worth a note.

The AO is returning to a strongly negative signature as well, so expect a lot of volatility in the operational guidance as they attempt to resolve whether or not the various shortwaves phase over North America embedded in the Polar and Sub Tropical Jet. The 12Z GEFS mean has switched to below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation after showing a big moderation for days...

Latest Euro Weeklies don't paint a very pretty picture for winter weather lovers around here....fire hose Pacific jet begins slamming into the west coast later this month into early December. Plenty of chances for rain but cold appears lacking according to weeklies

[srainhoutx]

:uarrow: The model trends have been to re-tank the EPO around thanksgiving and after. Worth a note.

The AO is returning to a strongly negative signature as well, so expect a lot of volatility in the operational guidance as they attempt to resolve whether or not the various shortwaves phase over North America embedded in the Polar and Sub Tropical Jet. The 12Z GEFS mean has switched to below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation after showing a big moderation for days...

Latest Euro Weeklies don't paint a very pretty picture for winter weather lovers around here....fire hose Pacific jet begins slamming into the west coast later this month into early December. Plenty of chances for rain but cold appears lacking according to weeklies

The weeklies have been horrid. Many a pro energy met types were depending on the weeklies when they suggested an all out torch for November. We see how that worked out.

[gatorcane]

12Z PGFS Cold Air anomalies by Day 10 showing massive arctic outbreak just north of the United States:


12Z ECMWF Cold Air Anomalies by Day 10 showing arctic air plunging south:

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Ok, i wasnt seeing the ridge. Change the map type and def see it now. Looks like the Euro is painting a swest coast based arctic plunge.

PGFS looks to show cross polar flow and would show a big high if this pattern continues. Sorry, i see it now lol.
Well, lets see, looking good so far. Needs to hold together over the next few runs

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro also shows a storm system accompanying the next blast of arctic air in about 10 days (according to the model). It shows several inches of snow in the Panhandle as the run ends.

[aggiecutter]

:uarrow: The model trends have been to re-tank the EPO around thanksgiving and after. Worth a note.

The AO is returning to a strongly negative signature as well, so expect a lot of volatility in the operational guidance as they attempt to resolve whether or not the various shortwaves phase over North America embedded in the Polar and Sub Tropical Jet. The 12Z GEFS mean has switched to below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation after showing a big moderation for days...

Latest Euro Weeklies don't paint a very pretty picture for winter weather lovers around here....fire hose Pacific jet begins slamming into the west coast later this month into early December. Plenty of chances for rain but cold appears lacking according to weeklies

Probably in response to what is shaping up as a typical El-Nino, not a modoki. The waters off the coast of Peru have warmed up dramatically over the past couple weeks. Unless the AO becomes and stays severely negative this winter, cold air shots will be transient. On the good side, if the AO does stay severely negative, there will be a lot of chances for wintry weather. If not, the pattern will be just wet without the cold.

I'm not a Pro Met and take my forecast with a grain of salt.

[Ntxw]

This weekend's storm system sure looks potent. Could be a severe weather outbreak across the eastern half of the state on Saturday.

It does, jet streak is very strong. I think dixie will likely have a severe weather outbreak, while cyclogenesis occurs over Texas. It will be a good widespread rainmaker, folks to the south of I-20 definitely should keep an eye.

SPC is already all over it. There are some historical set ups like it with tornado's in the past



1992, 2004 were two years that had outbreaks with similar set up and same time period as well

[Ralph's Weather]

It will be interesting to follow how the models resolve the end of this month. Everything we saw preseason showed that we would have -AO and now with El Nino coming on there will sure be clashes between the two. We got the last cold spell without an established Pains snow cover so I will be interested to see how the winter cold outbreaks go. BTW we reached the low 20s in my area this morning.