Texas Fall-2014

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Howdy!

Is it winter yet?

[srainhoutx]

Don't fall asleep dreaming about cold and snow across Texas this weekend. The Euro and GFS are suggesting a neutral/negative tilted trough with rapid cyclogenesis over West/Central Texas that could bring a potent severe weather episode to our Region.

[wxman57]

I was just going through my notes on the winter of 1976-1977, a good analog for this coming winter. Back in the mid 70s I was living in Lafayette, LA studying Chemical Engineering at USL (moved to Texas in the fall of 1977 to study meteorology at A&M). I kept a daily log of weather conditions in Lafayette, while commenting on weather events elsewhere across the country. As I looked through my notes from Oct/Nov of 1976 I saw some interesting things, like 8" of snow in Lufkin, TX on the 28th of October. At the top of my Oct/Nov sheets was written "Coldest October on Record" and "Coldest November on Record". Unfortunately the REAL cold was yet to come (January).

With that in mind, I've made a digital copy of my January 1977 records (below). The first page is my daily notes, which may be a bit hard to read as I used a type of shorthand. For example, FT = front through, so "FTEM" means "Front Through Early Morning".

It's the supplemental report on pages 2-4 that gave me the chills when I read it a few minutes ago. "Ohio River frozen solid. Ships breaking up in the ice". Mississippi River ice 20ft thick, including 10ft thick SOUTH of St. Louis. Temperature down to -60F in Wisconsin. Natural gas cut off to north - millions of students out of school. Florida declared a state of emergency. Snow in Miami.

So take a look at my supplemental report (after page 1) and decide if that's what you really want to see this winter. Very scary...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/1976-1977.pdf

[Tireman4]

I was just going through my notes on the winter of 1976-1977, a good analog for this coming winter. Back in the mid 70s I was living in Lafayette, LA studying Chemical Engineering at USL (moved to Texas in the fall of 1977 to study meteorology at A&M). I kept a daily log of weather conditions in Lafayette, while commenting on weather events elsewhere across the country. As I looked through my notes from Oct/Nov of 1976 I saw some interesting things, like 8" of snow in Lufkin, TX on the 28th of October. At the top of my Oct/Nov sheets was written "Coldest October on Record" and "Coldest November on Record". Unfortunately the REAL cold was yet to come (January).

With that in mind, I've made a digital copy of my January 1977 records (below). The first page is my daily notes, which may be a bit hard to read as I used a type of shorthand. For example, FT = front through, so "FTEM" means "Front Through Early Morning".

It's the supplemental report on pages 2-4 that gave me the chills when I read it a few minutes ago. "Ohio River frozen solid. Ships breaking up in the ice". Mississippi River ice 20ft thick, including 10ft thick SOUTH of St. Louis. Temperature down to -60F in Wisconsin. Natural gas cut off to north - millions of students out of school. Florida declared a state of emergency. Snow in Miami.

So take a look at my supplemental report (after page 1) and decide if that's what you really want to see this winter. Very scary...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/1976-1977.pdf

Thank you for sharing this. It is real look on how hard Winters can be. Now, you ask do I want that? Not to that extreme, but one or two snows would be nice in Houston sir. Thank you.

[Ntxw]

Thanks for sharing that wxman57, we appreciate all that you add. It's great stuff and gives a personal perspective since data pre-satellite (1979) is so hard to dig for. I think the whole 1976 groundwork was laid when the forecasted Nino did not go strong, instead it is now a weak one. This will allow Canada to get brutally cold vs a strong enso event that firehoses our northern neighbor. Weak ENSO events, when coupled with severe -AO, are among the coldest winters we have across the CONUS. I wasn't expecting 1976, 1977, 1978 at all until what occured in October. When that blocking caused snowcover to advance (second fastest on record) you just knew. Everything in weather is about feedbacks, once you start rolling it, just builds and builds. Snow begets cold, which begets snow, which gets you more cold.

[Janie2006]

Excellent, Wxman!

Thanks for your expertise and all you do here on S2K. Well, except for the endless summer stuff.

[cigtyme]

Thanks WXman, I was 4 when that was taking place. I asked my mother and father, and they read your piece, it was like dejavu hit them in the face. I appreciate you letting us in on the young WXman03 lol

[Janie2006]

I was but a child of 6 in 1976-77, but I remember the bitter cold, snow, and ice during that winter. In a way, it spoiled me for future winters in the South, but that kind of cold was nothing to play around with.

[texas1836]

I was but a child of 6 in 1976-77, but I remember the bitter cold, snow, and ice during that winter. In a way, it spoiled me for future winters in the South, but that kind of cold was nothing to play around with.

I was 6 too. It was January and our plane was trying to land at DFW. Had to circle several times while they cleared the runway of ice. That circling didn’t agree with me, I puked my guts up. Talk about embarrassing.

[Tireman4]

I was 11 and I remember it well. Very well. Very cold.

[cigtyme]

Never meant to start a how old was I thread

[gboudx]

Don't fall asleep dreaming about cold and snow across Texas this weekend. The Euro and GFS are suggesting a neutral/negative tilted trough with rapid cyclogenesis over West/Central Texas that could bring a potent severe weather episode to our Region.

Our local met Steve McCauley discussed the negative tilt and posted a graphic:

https://www.facebook.com/wfaa.steve.mcc ... =1&theater

[PTrackerLA]

Thanks for posting that wxman, looks a lot like how January 2014 was here in Lafayette. I consider last winter the harshest in recent memory around here (20+ years) and it's hard to believe we may be facing another brutal one. I swear if we get freezing rain with a temp of 25 at 3pm in the afternoon again I'll flip out! Let's get snow this year!

[BigB0882]

Thanks for posting that wxman, looks a lot like how January 2014 was here in Lafayette. I consider last winter the harshest in recent memory around here (20+ years) and it's hard to believe we may be facing another brutal one. I swear if we get freezing rain with a temp of 25 at 3pm in the afternoon again I'll flip out! Let's get snow this year!

I have a really hard time believing this winter will be brutal precisely because of how cold last winter was. Last winter was the harshest winter I can remember. I was born in 1982 so perhaps some of the 80s had really cold winters and I was just too young to remember or care but from the 90s onward, 2014 takes the cake. If we have two of those in a row, well, just wow!

I will also say AMEN to your comment about the freezing rain. ENOUGH OF THAT. I saw sleet so many times last year, I am good for a long while. Let it snow or just keep it nice and mild. I don't like the cold unless it comes with the promise of the white stuff! Maybe this year will make up for all the teases of last year.

[aggiecutter]

I was just going through my notes on the winter of 1976-1977, a good analog for this coming winter. Back in the mid 70s I was living in Lafayette, LA studying Chemical Engineering at USL (moved to Texas in the fall of 1977 to study meteorology at A&M). I kept a daily log of weather conditions in Lafayette, while commenting on weather events elsewhere across the country. As I looked through my notes from Oct/Nov of 1976 I saw some interesting things, like 8" of snow in Lufkin, TX on the 28th of October. At the top of my Oct/Nov sheets was written "Coldest October on Record" and "Coldest November on Record". Unfortunately the REAL cold was yet to come (January).

With that in mind, I've made a digital copy of my January 1977 records (below). The first page is my daily notes, which may be a bit hard to read as I used a type of shorthand. For example, FT = front through, so "FTEM" means "Front Through Early Morning".

It's the supplemental report on pages 2-4 that gave me the chills when I read it a few minutes ago. "Ohio River frozen solid. Ships breaking up in the ice". Mississippi River ice 20ft thick, including 10ft thick SOUTH of St. Louis. Temperature down to -60F in Wisconsin. Natural gas cut off to north - millions of students out of school. Florida declared a state of emergency. Snow in Miami.

So take a look at my supplemental report (after page 1) and decide if that's what you really want to see this winter. Very scary...

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/1976-1977.pdf

I was a senior in high school in Texarkana during the winter of 76-77. We missed 5 or 6 days of school because of the cold in November-December. Natural gas stores were low, even in the south. The other things I remember were it was relatively dry. The were 6 or 7 winter weather events, but they were on the light to moderate side. The winter was brutally cold from November to Mid January in the southern plains. The rest of the winter was relatively mild.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Record low at IAH this morning of 30 degrees. Nice!

[Texas Snowman]

Wouldn't you like to see a forecast like this just once for DFW, Austin, and Houston? If we did, the Winter Weather Thread for Texas would hit 1,000 pages in a matter of days.

From the Buffalo NWS office, forecast for tomorrow, Thursday, Nov. 20, 2014:

Thursday
Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. West wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

[WeatherNewbie]

Thanks for posting that wxman, looks a lot like how January 2014 was here in Lafayette. I consider last winter the harshest in recent memory around here (20+ years) and it's hard to believe we may be facing another brutal one. I swear if we get freezing rain with a temp of 25 at 3pm in the afternoon again I'll flip out! Let's get snow this year!

I have a really hard time believing this winter will be brutal precisely because of how cold last winter was.

I believe we call that the gambler's fallacy.

[Tireman4]

:darrow: Wouldn't you like to see a forecast like this just once for DFW, Austin, and Houston? If we did, the Winter Weather Thread for Texas would hit 1,000 pages in a matter of days.

From the Buffalo NWS office, forecast for tomorrow, Thursday, Nov. 20, 2014:

Thursday
Snow with areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. West wind around 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=824039784325334

[Portastorm]

It's really something to consider that some areas of Buffalo are receiving in one week the same amount of average snowfall they may see in one year. And Buffalo has been through some amazingly bad winters with snow. So, this is historical.

Meanwhile for us, EWX in its afternoon AFD is honking about the severe threat for midday Saturday in south central Texas:

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES ON FRIDAY AS A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DURING THE DAY...RAIN CHANCES OF
20-50% ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. ON
SATURDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. THE TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE ON A MORE
NEGATIVE TILT...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR LARGE
SCALE ASCENT. WITH PEAK HEATING...WE EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD AS ACTIVITY MOVES OUT OF
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST MODELS ALONG
WITH THE SPC DAY 4 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE HIGHWAY 77 CORRIDOR
DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS...CELL MERGERS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MCS DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF I-35. IF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS...HEAVY RAINFALL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS HAVE REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH THE TROUGH...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING HEAVY
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY
AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS MUCH DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION. A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING EVEN DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...YET ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR APPEARS IN THE OFFING TUESDAY.